NBA Primer by TJ Calkins

Season Odds

• Title Odds +3300
• Win Total 46.5

Starting Five

• Kyle Lowry
• Fred Vanvleet
• OG Anunoby
• Pascal Siakam
• Marc Gasol

Notable Additions

• F Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
• F Stanley Johnson

Notable Losses

• F Kawhi Leonard
• G Danny Green

Losing Kawhi Leonard drastically changes the outlook for any team. The defending champions are now just a back end playoff team that is not a title contender, and the truth is there’s not much they could have done about that. The team now has no superstar but they do have multiple all star caliber players and the win total is  maybe a tick low, but it doesn’t bring enough value to attack the over.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +750
• Win Total 54.5

Starting Five

• Ben Simmons
• Josh Richardson
• Tobias Harris
• Al Horford
• Joel Embiid

Notable Additions

• C AL Horford
• G Josh Richardson
• Matisse Thybulle

Notable Losses

• F Jimmy Butler
• G JJ Redick
• G TJ McConnell

The length of this team is utterly insane. They will be the eastern conference favorites but the shooting they lost in Butler and Redick will be incredibly difficult to replace. If Simmons makes strides with his own shot, he would become a true nightmare to defend and he is already high end without a true jump shot in his skill set. There will be nights where the shooting issues arise but this team is the best bet to win the east, but no play on the win total.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +2500
• Win Total 48.5

Starting Five

• Kemba Walker
• Jaylen Brown
• Jayson Tatum
• Gordon Hayward
• Daniel Theis

Notable Additions

• G Kemba Walker
• C Enes Kanter
• G Romeo Langford
• F Grant Williams

Notable Losses

• G Kyrie Irving
• G Terry Rozier
• C Al Horford
• F Marcus Morris
• C Aron Baynes

There isn’t really an argument to be made that there wasn’t a net loss from a talent perspective this offseason. That said, there were chemistry issues and a lack of a nightly defined role for the wing players, and the roster likely sits better for the chances of players like Tatum and Brown to find the peak of their potential. The interior defense takes a blow with the loss of Horford and being replaced by the combination of Theis and Kanter. All in all I believe the Celtics will be at least as productive as last season and they may be a good target to bet on if and when some early season favorable spreads present themselves.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +2500
• Win Total 43.5

Starting Five

• Kyrie Irving
• Joe Harris
• Caris Levert
• Taurean Prince
• Jarrett Allen

Notable Additions

• F Kevin Durant
• G Kyrie Irving
• C Deandre Jordan
• F Taurean Prince
• G Garrett Temple
• G David Nwaba

Notable Losses

• G D’Angelo Russell
• F DeMarre Carroll
• F Rhondae Hollis-Jefferson
• C Ed Davis
• G Allen Crabbe

With superstar Kevin Durant likely to miss the entire season, the Nets will be stuck in the middle, lacking a second star and useful depth outside of the center position. This is a quite reasonable spot to take a look at under 43.5 wins. Unless this team is the picture of health for the majority of the season, it’s difficult to envision this squad playing over .500 ball.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +25000
• Win Total 26.5

Starting Five

• Dennis Smith Jr
• RJ Barrett
• Marcus Morris
• Julius Randle
• Mitchell Robinson

Notable Additions

• Julius Randle
• F Bobby Portis
• F Marcus Morris
• G Reggie Bullock
• G Wayne Ellington
• G RJ Barrett

Notable Losses

• Emmanuel Mudiay
• F Mario Hezonja
• F Noah Vonleh
• C Deandre Jordan

The Knicks were the losers of the Durant/Irving sweepstakes and are now looking at another year of no playoff hope. They certainly were forced to a lower tier of free agents than they hoped, but they do have some reasonable bench pieces as well. Kevin Knox still has a true attainable ceiling and Elfrid Payton and Bobby Portis are sound enough vets. Full disclosure: before diving into this team I assumed I would be betting them as an under, I’m calling them no play but if I had to choose a side, it would be over 26.5.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +600
• Win Total 57.5

Starting Five

• Eric Bledsoe
• Wesley Matthews
• Khris Middleton
• Giannis Antetokounmpo
• Brook Lopez

Notable Additions

• C Robin Lopez
• G Wesley Matthews
• G Kyle Korver

Notable Losses

• G Malcolm Brogdon
• F Nikola Mirotic

The loss of Brogdon can’t be understated, but the Pacers paid what they had to get their man and Milwaukee couldn’t get it done. Matthews will fill the role but he is a downgrade. This is still a high end playoff team and the win total is accurate, but I view them as a step below the elite in the western conference. The win total is accurate and not one to attack.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +4500
• Win Total 46.5

Starting Five

• Victor Oladipo
• Malcolm Brogdon
• TJ Warren
• Domantas Sabonis
• Myles Turner

Notable Additions

• F TJ Warren
• G Malcolm Brogdon
• G Jeremy Lamb
• G TJ McConnell
• Goga Bitadze

Notable Losses

• G Darren Collison
• G Tyreke Evans
• F Bojan Bogdanovich
• F Thad Young
• G Wes Matthews
• Cory Joseph

The Pacers overcame the losses of Bogdanovich and Young with the upgrade of Brogdon and Warren. Already a 48 win playoff team last year, they should improve on that this season and they are quietly a contender. This isn’t the sexiest roster, but it really is an effective one and one to take over 46.5 wins.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +17500
• Win Total 37.5

Starting Five

• Reggie Jackson
• Bruce Brown
• Tony Snell
• Blake Griffin
• Andre Drummond

Notable Additions

• G Derrick Rose
• F Markieff Morris
• F Sekou Doumbouya
• C Christian Wood

Notable Losses

• G Ish Smith
• F Jon Leuer

This is one of the more puzzling win totals on the board this offseason. They had a net improvement this offseason and return both of their star bigs who will keep them at .500 or better in the eastern conference, which is a good bet to be enough for a playoff spot. Over 37.5 is one of the more attractive overs out there.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +20000
• Win Total 32.5

Starting Five

• Tomas Satoransky
• Zach Lavine
• Otto Porter
• Lauri Markannen
• Wendell Carter

Notable Additions

• F Thad Young
• G Tomas Satoransky
• F Luke Kornet
• G Coby White

Notable Loss

• C Robin Lopez

This is a very much an ascending team with plenty of young talent that will only improve. The signing of Satoransky relegates Kris Dunn to what he should be, a depth piece. Young also helps with the rotational depth and Coby White will have some depth role to start the season as well. This is a team that could improve to a .500 or better team this season and over 32.5 on the win total is enticing.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +30000
• Win Total 24.5

Starting Five

• Collin Sexton
• Brandon Knight
• Cedi Osman
• Kevin Love
• Tristan Thompson

Notable Additions

• G Darius Garland
• F Dylan Windler

Notable Loss

• G David Nwaba

It’s going to be another very long season in Cleveland. They will be eager to find an in season trade partner to ship away Kevin Love, and this will be another rebuilding season. If they are unable to trade Love and the team is relatively healthy, the 24.5 win total is about right. It takes some projecting but the under here would be a favorable outcome for the team and likely to hit once Love is moved and Thompson is injured.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +12500
• Win Total 41.5

Starting Five

• DJ Augustin
• Evan Fournier
• Jonathan Isaac
• Aaron Gordon
• Nikola Vucevic

Notable Additions

• Al-Farouq Aminu
• F Chuma Okeke

Notable Losses

• None

Orlando is happy to stay mediocre and projects nearly exactly the same as they were last year. They will hover around .500 again and hope to be a back end playoff team. They are a team to avoid.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +30000
• Win Total 23.5

Starting Five

• Terry Rozier
• Dwayne Bacon
• Miles Bridges
• PJ Washington
• Cody Zeller

Notable Additions

• G Terry Rozier
• F PJ Washington

Notable Losses

• G Kemba Walker
• G Jeremy Lamb
• C Frank Kaminsky
• G Tony Parker

This is one of, if not the worst offseason in memory for any team, and this team is likely the league’s worst. They have no star power and nothing resembling it. 23.5 on the win total is quite small, but still too high. This team is set up to be terrible for quite some time. At least they own their own first round picks.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +6000
• Win Total 43.5

Starting Five

• Justise Winslow
• Dion Waiters
• Jimmy Butler
• Kelly Olynyk
• Bam Adebayo

Notable Additions

• F Jimmy Butler
• C Meyers Leonard
• G Tyler Herro

Notable Losses

• G Dwayne Wade
• C Hassan Whiteside
• G Josh Richardson

This team will certainly be a mediocre one. With the acquisition of Jimmy Butler, the floor for this team was raised, but the remainder of the roster caps the ceiling and it will be one in the middle. There are questions on Dion Waiters and his ability to implode a team, and he’s already been suspended for the opener while he’s rumored to be untradeable. Just the presence of Waiters makes me want to look at the under but this team is one best to stay away from.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +20000
• Win Total 26.5

Starting Five

• Ish Smith
• Bradley Beal
• CJ Miles
• Rui Hachimura
• Thomas Bryant

Notable Additions

• G Ish Smith
• G Isaiah Thomas
• F David Bertans
• F CJ Miles
• F Rui Hachimura

Notable Losses

• F Trevor Ariza
• F Bobby Portis
• G Tomas Satoransky
• F Jabari Parker
• F Jeff Green

This is a team going nowhere fast, particularly with the absence of John Wall. They simply have a severe lack of scoring after Bradley Beal and it will be evident. One thing to note is they were a three point heavy team in the preseason and that aspect is quite a positive in the modern NBA and it could create a few extra wins on good shooting nights. While I lean the under, it’s best to just stay away from this Wizards team.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +15000
• Win Total 33.5

Starting Five

• Trae Young
• Kevin Huerter
• De’Andre Hunter
• John Collins
• Alex Len

Notable additions

• G Allen Crabbe
• G/F Evan Turner
• F Chandler Parsons
• F Jabari Parker
• F Deandre Hunter
• F Cam Reddish
• C Damian Jones

Notable Losses

• F Taurean Prince
• G Kent Bazemore
• C Dewayne Dedmon

Don’t expect anything resembling a playoff push from the Hawks this season. They still have a young and ascending roster, but they are still more in the rebuild phase than they are competing, but we will see flashes of a potential future on select nights from the young stars.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +1800
• Win Total 52.5

Starting Five

• Jamal Murray
• Gary Harris
• Will Barton
• Paul Millsap
• Nikola Jokic

Notable Addition

• Jerami Grant

Notable Losses

• None

The Nuggets remain one of the league’s high end teams with no holes. They are a realistic title contender behind star center Nikola Jokic and they are a team that will always produce a high regular season win total given their starters and depth. There is slight attractiveness at +1800 for a title, but the better play os over 52.5 wins.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +3300
• Win Total 46.5

Starting Five

• Damian Lillard
• CJ McCollum
• Rodney Hood
• Zach Collins
• Hassan Whiteside

Notable Additions

• C Hassan Whiteside
• G Kent Bazemore
• F Mario Hezonja
• F Nassir Little

Notable Losses

• C Enes Kanter
• F Al-Farouq Aminu
• F Evan Turner
• F Mo Harkless
• G Seth Curry
• F Jake Layman

With Jusuf Nurkic without a timeline for return, the Blazers will need the new environment to be enough for Whiteside to reemerge. This is not a high percentage bet and will more likely have to rely on Collins to take large steps as the largest complementary piece to their guards. While they didn’t lose a lot in the way of offense, they lost a lot of defensive pieces and that becomes a true question mark. They are a virtual lock to win fewer games than last season but their win total is 6.5 below their win output. They are a fade.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +1200
• Win Total 53.5

Starting Five

• Mike Conley
• Donovan Mitchell
• ROyce O’Neale
• Bojan Bogdanovic
• Rudy Gobert

Notable Additions

• G Mike Conley
• F Bojan Bogdanovic
• C Ed Davis
• F Jeff Green
• G Emmanuel Mudiay

Notable Losses

• G Ricky Rubio
• F Derrick Favors
• G Kyle Korver

The Conley and Bogdanovic acquisitions are big net positive for a team that’s already coming off a 50 win season, and they are truly title contenders. Mitchell a year deeper into his development will take another step forward and Gobert is a strong two way player down low. This will certainly be a top four seed in the west, but the win total is high enough that it prevents betting the over. There is a tick of value in the Jazz at +1200 for the title.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +15000
• Win Total 35.5

Starting Five

• Chris Paul
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
• Andre Roberson
• Danilo Gallinari
• Stephen Adams

Notable Additions

• G Chris Paul
• G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
• F Danilo Gallinari
• Darius Bazley

Notable Losses

• G Russell Westbrook
• F Paul George
• F Jerami Grant
• F Markieff Morris

The team recognized the previous core was not one with realistic championship aspirations and moved on from its superstars. They collected a plethora of first round picks in the process and appear to be taking a wait and see approach to this season. If the core they have looks like it could grab a playoff spot, they may just hold on to the vets they have. If the season starts slow, Paul, Adams and Gallo could all be on the move and they could truly enter rebuild mode. With a complete element of unknown, this is a team to steer clear of.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +15000
• Win Total 35.5

Starting Five

• Jeff Teague
• Andrew Wiggins
• Jake Layman
• Robert Covington
• Karl-Anthony Towns

Notable Additions

• F Treveon Graham
• F Jake Layman
• G Shabazz Napier
• F Jarret Culver
• F Noah Vonleh

Notable Losses

• G Derrick Rose
• F Dario Saric
• F Taj Gibson
• G Tyus Jones

This offseason was likely a long term win with the acquisition of Culver, but it is difficult to envision him being a one season even net given the loss of Saric. Covington returning should be a help and this isn’t a team to rule out of playoff contention by any means. I would deem the win total to be too low and over 35.5 is a favorable bet.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +1000
• Win Total 47.5

Starting Five

• Steph Curry
• D’Angelo Russell
• Glenn Robinson
• Draymond Green
• Kevon Looney

Notable Additions

• G D’Angelo Russell
• C Willie Cauley-Stein
• G Jordan Poole
• F Glenn Robinson

Notable Losses

• F Kevin Durant
• F Andre Iguadola
• C DeMarcus Cousins
• G Shaun Livingston

With star SG Klay Thompson on the shelf until sometime in the spring, this is a more difficult team to project than in years past. This team has proven it can win with a big three of Curry, Thompson and Green and they now have an additional scorer in Russell. They also pulled a coup resigning Looney as cheap as they did, he left money on the table to stay in Golden State. Even with Thompson out for an extended period, 47.5 os too low on the win total and the over is attractive. Even more attractive is +1000 on a championship as they should have Thompson back for the playoff run.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +300
• Win Total 53.5

Starting Five

• Patrick Beverly
• Landry Shamet
• Kawhi Leonard
• Paul George
• Ivica Zubac

Notable Additions

• F Kawhi Leonard
• F Paul George
• F Mo Harkless
• C Mfiondu Kabenhgele

Notable Losses

• F Danilo Gallinari
• G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
• G Garrett Temple

The Clippers won the ultimate prize of the offseason with the signing of Kawhi Leonard, and that came with the opportunity to also trade for Paul George, creating arguably the most potent tandem in the league. The Clippers still have bench studs Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell in place and have the league’s best roster. Title odds of +300 are too low for attractiveness and the absence of Paul George for the first roughly dozen games makes the win total a fade as well, but we will be betting this team plenty at full strength.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +6000
• Win Total 39.5

Starting Five

• Lonzo Ball
• Jrue Holiday
• Brandon Ingram
• Zion Williamson
• Derrick Favors

Notable Additions

• F Brandon Ingram
• G Lonzo Ball
• F Derrick Favors
• G JJ Reddick
• G Josh Hart
• F Zion WIlliamson
• C Jaxson Hayes
• G Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Notable Losses

• F Anthony Davis
• C Julius Randle
• G Elfrid Payton
• F Cheick Diallo
• F Christian Wood

The Pels have an awful lot to be excited about long term. They already have a competitive roster after moving on from Anthony Davis and a seemingly limitless ceiling in the coming years. We will have to wait a couple weeks for Zion’s debut after an injury, but this team is already in play to push for a back end playoff spot. I can’t tell if I’m too excited for what this team could ultimately be, but I definitely lean towards over 39.5 wins.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +300
• Win Total 50.5

Starting Five

• Rajon Rondo
• Danny Green
• Lebron James
• Anthony Davis
• Javale McGee

Notable Additions

• F Anthony Davis
• C DeMarcus Cousins
• G Danny Green
• G Avery Bradley
• C Dwight Howard
• G Quinn Cook

Notable Losses

• F Brandon Ingram
• G Lonzo Ball
• G Josh Hart
• C Tyson Chandler

The Lakers struck gold in the trade for Anthony Davis. He is one of the few players that makes a team a playoff contender on his own. The Lakers will be a playoff team this year, but the Cousins signing went up in smoke after he tore an ACL in August. They did do well to bring in Green who complements the roster well, and they still have Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma and now Dwight Howard coming off the bench. With the rest days and injury days required for both James and Davis, this win total is one best faded.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +30000
• Win Total 28.5

Starting Five

• Ricky Rubio
• Devin Booker
• Kelly Oubre
• Dario Saric
• Deandre Ayton

Notable Additions

• G Ricky Rubio
• F Dario Saric
• C Aron Baynes
• F Cheick Diallo
• F Cameron Johnson
• G Ty Jerome

Notable Losses

• F TJ Warren
• F Josh Jackson
• F Richaun Holmes

Most are not a fan of the Suns offseason but I think they did well enough shipping guys who were not in their plans and bringing a vet steadying presence in Rubio and Saric. With core pieces Booker and Ayton another year along in their development, and actually having competent point guard play, the Suns are a sound bet for over 28.5 wins.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +850
• Win Total 53.5

Starting Five

• Russell Westbrook
• James Harden
• Eric Gordon
• PJ Tucker
• Clint Capela

Notable Additions

• G Russell Westbrook
• G Ben McLemore
• C Tyson Chandler

Notable Loss

• G Chris Paul

The chemistry and perhaps personal issues between Harden and Chris Paul proved to be irreconcilable and they were able to land Russell Westbrook via trade. This puts two of the best guards in the game in the same backcourt and there is no guarantee Westbrook and Harden will be able to coexist, as both are at their best when dominating the ball. While this will be a fun team and situation to watch, there are no sound bets.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +6000
• Win Total 46.5

Starting Five

• Dejounte Murray
• Bryn Forbes
• Demar DeRozan
• LaMarcus Aldridge
• Jakob Poeltl

Notable Additions

• F Demarre Carroll
• F Trey Lyles
• Luka Samanic
• Keldon Johnson

Notable Losses

• David Bertans

The Spurs certainly remain a playoff team, and the return of Murray will surely help matters in that regard.With Derrick White, Rudy Gay and Demarre Carroll comng off the bench, they have potent depth and the coaching to win plenty of games. Getting Murray back, the win total should increase from last year but is lower, so over 46.5 is quite a sound play.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +20000
• Win Total 27.5

Starting Five

• Ja Morant
• Dillon Brooks
• Kyle Anderson
• Jaren Jackson
• Jonas Valanciunas

Notable Additions

• F Andre Iguodala
• F Josh Jackson
• F Jae Crowder
• Ja Morant
• F Brandon Clarke

Notable Losses

• G Mike Conley
• G Delon Wright
• G Avery Bradley
• F CJ Miles
• F Chandler Parsons

The dominos have now all fallen for the rebuild in Memphis. Morant was a great get in the draft to pair with Jackson as probable future stars. That said, this season will be a rough one and it would not be surprising to see some of the older players shipped out as well. We don’t know for certain that this will happen so the under isn’t one to play with confidence but it is the side we would have to play with this team.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +15000
• Win Total 37.5

Starting Five

• De’Aaron Fox
• Buddy Hield
• Harrison Barnes
• Marvin Bagley III
• Dewayne Dedmon

Notable Additions

• F Trevor Ariza
• C Dewayne Dedmon
• F RIchaun Holmes
• G Cory Joseph

Notable Loss

• C Willie Cauley-Stein

While there is no overly sexy name to headline the offseason acquisitions, they are absolutely an improvement to the roster and it is galring the win total sits below the wins from last season. All four additions will have meaningful roles and all will be ones that improve the team. There is sound depth here and this team is likely one that finishes over .500. Over 37.5 wins is a sound bet.

Season Odds

• Title Odds +7000
• Win Total 40.5

Starting Five

• Delon Wright
• Jalen Brunson
• Luka Doncic
• Kristaps Prozingis
• Dwight Powell

Notable Additions

• G Seth Curry
• G Delon Wright
• C Boban Marjanovich

Notable Loss

• None

The Mavericks were able to sign Porzingis to have two true high end young pieces in he and Doncic. The depth on this team isn’t overly exciting but Wright and Curry make it manageable. The center position has room for improvement as Powell has almost certainly peaked. The under .500 win total reflects playing in the more difficult western conference and seems accurate. A healthy season would likely see them over while the injury bug would push it under. Best to stay away from this one.