NBA Expert Pick Saturday 11/23

Phoenix Suns 7-7 at Minnesota Timberwolves 8-7

5:05PM EST

Opening Line: Timberwolves -6 and off
Current Line: Timberwolves -6 and off

We discussed the Suns limitation without Ricky Rubio on Thursday and we targeted them with our TNT play of the week, taking the Pelicans who beat the Suns in Phoenix. All indications are the Suns will once again be without Rubio and Baynes and this keeps them as a betting target. I would have been attacking this game with an opening line anywhere in single digits and was pleasantly surprised to see the opening line set at 6 points. This play evaporates if Rubio ends up playing, but that seems highly unlikely.

Toronto Raptors 10-4 at Atlanta Hawks 4-11

7:35PM EST

Opening Line: Raptors -6.5 and 223.5
Current Line: Raptors -7 and 223.5

The Raptors and Hawks are near the polar ends of the Eastern Conference standings, and the gap will be even wider after their game Saturday. The Hawks are missing pieces throughout their rotation and they did not have any depth to spare entering the season. They have lost five straight, all by at least eight points and an average margin of loss being 20 points in that span. The frontcourt of Toronto has such a massive advantage in this one, I would deem this line to be very incorrect, and should easily be in double digits. Even if Trae Young can put up a stellar offensive performance in this one, it’s likely to be in a non competitive game. Take the Raptors and take them early as this line could widen.

The Heat, laying 4 points, controlled this game for the entirety leading by 16 after the first quarter and by 23 at halftime and controlled the game through the second half. Then Spoelstra pulled the starters far too early and Shaq Harrison decided he didn’t want the game to be over for the Bulls and started wrecking shop with about three minutes left in the game. Spoelstra was eventually forced to put Butler and Adebayo back in with roughly a minute left to secure the win and cover, but this was just a coach getting too greedy. The margin of victory ended up being 8 but the game was far more lopsided than the final score suggests. 

The win brings us to 21-13 on the season.