Julian Marquez vs Sam Alvey Prediciton

Fight is at 185 lbs and is -160 to end inside the distance.

This UFC Vegas 23 fight will be the UFC’s farewell to Sam Alvey. He drops down from light heavyweight coming off a five fight winless streak. After four losses he fought to a draw with Da-Un Jung, who also fights on this card (more on him later). It is odd to see a 35 year old losing fighter drop a weight class, and bluntly, I don’t think this ends well for Alvey.

Julian Marquez has what appears to be a quite favorable matchup in this fight. Maquez, the more powerful and better striker, will be able to dictate the pace in this fight.

✅ Marquez also has the benefit of his opponent not offering a real wrestling threat nor pressing the action with volume. Those factors in combination with Alvey being a fighter who seems to enjoy being backed to the fence, means it will get ugly for Alvey.

✅ Marquez got the rust off in his come from behind win in February. That was off a nearly three year layoff and I expect a version in this fight ready to end the night early.

✅ Alvey has made one last desperation play with the weight class drop, but it won’t help (if he makes weight). Marquez will progressively tee off on Alvey and will get another finish win. Our play will be Marquez ITD at a favorable +125.