Wisconsin Badgers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Picks

December 8, 2020

Date:Saturday, December 12th
Time:3:30 PM ET
Network:FS1
Venue:Kinnick Stadium
Spread:Wisconsin -1.5
O/U:42.5

The 2-2 Wisconsin Badgers will go on the road Saturday night to face off with the 5-2 Iowa Hawkeyes at 3:30 PM ET in Kinnick Stadium. You can tune into the matchup on FS1. The Badgers come in as 1.5-point road favorites and we’re expecting a defensive battle with a 42.5 over/under. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my CFB Picks and Predictions for the upcoming weekend slate of games.

Trends

  • Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
  • Hawkeyes are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
  • Under is 7-1 in Badgers last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1 in Hawkeyes last 5 games following a ATS win.

When The Wisconsin Badgers Have The Ball

The Badgers have scored a combined 13 points in their last two games, facing off with and losing to the Northwestern Wildcats and Indiana Hoosiers. It won’t get any easier against a 16th-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes team that is an all-around tough bunch. Wisconsin must get back to playing solid defense and picking up an early lead.

The Badgers haven’t had much success offensively, but their best bet is with freshman QB Graham Mertz. He’s up to 807 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions on top of 34 rushing yards and a score. Jalen Berger and Nakia Watson are solid halfbacks, but it’s hard to run the ball when you’re down from the first quarter on. This offense must show up early on the road or it will be another ugly showing.

When The Iowa Hawkeyes Have The Ball

After losing to Northwestern by a single point, the Iowa Hawkeyes have rattled off four straight victories and currently sit with a 5-2 record on the season that has moved them to 16th in the country. It’s a balanced offense and they’ve thrown it for just 130 more yards than they’ve rushed it for. Sophomore QB Sam Petras is up to 1,358 yards with seven scores and five INT’s.

Iowa wants to run the ball as much as they can at home and both Tyler Goodson (656 yards, 6 TD, 13 catches, 124 yards) and Mekhi Sargent (381 yards, 7 TD) have been solid. On the outside, it’s Sam LaPorta and Brandon Smith with 20+ receptions, though seven total receivers have caught 13+ balls as Petras does a good job of spreading it around.

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Iowa +1.5

There is no legitimate reason that Wisconsin is favored in this game on the road. The Hawkeyes are the better team on both sides of the football and they’re far more disciplined. Petras is the more trustworthy signal-caller and Iowa has been better in both of the trenches. They’re penalized less than Wisconsin and the Badgers have seemed to all but pack it in after their last two games. Give me the Hawkeyes to keep it rolling and win this game at home.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Under 42.5
Final Score Prediction: Iowa 24, Wisconsin 13

Neither of these offenses are any good and both teams lean on their defense. We also get two offenses that don’t want to speed the game up, which is as rare as ever in today’s CFB. They also both want to run the ball and throw it out of necessity. It’s a scarily low number but the under is the correct bet to make in this game.

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