UFC Vegas – Eye vs Calvillo Picks and Predictions

June 11, 2020

Thanks for stopping back for UFC Vegas. Last week’s Pay Per View card was a solid card to watch, and even though Byrd and Hooper let us down, Aljamain Sterling salvaged the night with the win, and moreover, he got it home via submission, which was +540 and that alone made the night a winner.

This card, well, from a viewing perspective, this card is as low level as UFC cards go. A women’s flyweight fight that doesn’t feature Valentina is really ugly as a main event, and as much as I have hometown love for Jessica Eye, this fight with Cynthia Calvillo is fairly cringe for a main event. There aren’t any fighters on this card that I would deem must watch, but that doesn’t mean we can’t be entertained by a mostly lower level card. There’s still a couple betting spots to attack and additionally a couple punt props to consider, so let’s get to the fights to look at for wagering.

Quick Links

As always for the fight night cards, I’ll be writing a summary for each fight with a wager and offering a prediction for each fight that doesn’t have a wager. Let’s get to it

Mariya Agapova -250 vs Hannah Cifers

Betting Play: Agapova -250 and/or Agapova ITD +200

Fight is at 125 lbs and is +145 to end inside the distance.

The key, for me, to this fight is the weight class. Hannah Ciphers would likely be a beneficiary if the UFC were to add a women’s atomweight division (105 lbs). Ciphers is a strawweight in the UFC and the fact that she is taking a flyweight fight shows the true desperation as to which fights could be available for her in the promotion. Mariya Agapova is significantly larger and will have a 5” height and 8” reach advantage and this will be a massive factor. The debuting fighter in Agapova really has an advantage in all facets, with the standing striking advantage mostly coming from the size differential. Ciphers can crack for being such a small fighter, but closing the distance on the feet here will be a massive issue for her and she will get picked apart at range. In the grappling realm she will fare even worse and I think the fight ends with ground and pound raining down from Agapova after taking down or dropping an eventually battered Ciphers. Agapova -250 is sound enough but it should be supplemented or perhaps even replaced with Agapova ITD at +200 as well.

Tyson Nam -130 vs Zarrukh Adashev

Betting Play: Nam via KO +600 (Line TBD)

Fight is at 135 lbs and is +135 to end inside the distance.

So a couple losses in the UFC seem to have made literally everyone forget the power that Nam has in his hands. His volume is and will remain an issue but the drop in competition and smaller octagon should be wholly positive factors for Nam in terms of getting a right hand hammer home. Adashev is a debuting fighter whose record could be deceiving. He is not as green as his four pro fight track record suggests, but make no mistake, there is a level of green to his MMA game, and he will be the smaller fighter, giving up 2” of height and 3.5” of reach. The jump in competition for Adashev will likely be a true shock and the power Nam possesses will likely bring a don’t blink moment, as Adashev doesn’t have the layered striking defense Nam’s previous opponents in the promotion had. At the time of this writing we have a +440 ITD line for Nam, but we want to narrow this even further to Nam via KO and when that line drops, it will likely be in the +600 neighborhood. Take Nam for the KO.

Jordan Griffin -170 vs Darrick Minner

Betting Play: Minner +145

Fight is at 145 lbs and is -170 to end inside the distance.

Jordan Griffin is a fighter that has found ways to truly snatch victory from the jaws of defeat with submissions in fights that he was losing by a significant margin. His last fight against TJ Brown was one such fight and well well well, his fight with Minner in the LFA promotion was one of such fights as well. The fact is, by my view, the only thing that stops Minner from taking advantage of Griffin’s non existent takedown defense is Minner’s own gas tank, and he has to be fully aware of that issue in this fight and s imply setting just a tick slower place would work to his advantage. At the end of the day I simply can’t back a fighter that tends to rely on miracles to steal wins such as Griffin, particularly when we have seen this fight play out already. The result of the first fight is dictating the betting price rather than the substance of the first fight and by my view, it’s a value spot we must attack. Take Minner and the underdog price tag.

Other Fight Predictions

The three prices mentioned in parenthesis are ones I would consider playing, but also bear in mind this card is simply not one where risking a significant portion of your bankroll is prudent. 

  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Well know brand

Get $1100 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSCZR
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

Bet365 Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • World biggest sportsbook
  • Great live betting
  • Top class user experience

Get 200/1 Odds free

Promo Сode:
None Needed
  • Wide Range of Banking Options
  • Generous Bonus
  • Great Loyalty Program

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB
  • Strong presence in US
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Easy registration process
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000
  • Great Loyalty Program
  • Generous Bonus
  • Wide Range of Banking Options

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB

Unibet Sportsbook

Rated 4.7 stars out of 5
4.7
  • Great international betting coverage
  • Sign-up Bonus
  • Trustworthy brand

Get $500 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Great Promotions
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Well know brand
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options

Get $1100 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSCZR
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Great Promotions
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Both online and land-based sportsbook
  • Top Class Customer Support
  • Great Welcome Bonus

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
250MATCH
  • Well know brand
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Great reward program

Get $1100 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSCZR
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Great Promotions
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Great reward program
  • Well know brand

Get $1100 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSCZR
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Easy registration process
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

Unibet Sportsbook

Rated 4.7 stars out of 5
4.7
  • Sign-up Bonus
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Great international betting coverage

Get $500 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Well know brand
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options

Get $1100 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSCZR
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Strong presence in US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

MaximBet

Rated 4 stars out of 5
4.0
  • 1X Bonus Playthrough
  • Exciting Daily Promos
  • Fast payouts

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

Betsafe Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Easy registration process
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions

Get $25 plus $10 free bets bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Both online and land-based sportsbook
  • Great Welcome Bonus
  • Top Class Customer Support

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
250MATCH
  • Very user-friendly platform
  • One of the biggest sportsbooks in US
  • Outstanding US sports offers

Get $2000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB2000
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Great reward program
  • Well know brand

Get $1100 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSCZR
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000
  • Great Promotions
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Great Promotions
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF
  • Well know brand
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options

Get $1100 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSCZR
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

Unibet Sportsbook

Rated 4.7 stars out of 5
4.7
  • Sign-up Bonus
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Great international betting coverage

Get $500 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Great Promotions
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Well know brand
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Great reward program

Get $1100 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSCZR
  • Strong presence in US
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

Unibet Sportsbook

Rated 4.7 stars out of 5
4.7
  • Sign-up Bonus
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Great international betting coverage

Get $500 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Great Promotions
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • Great Promotions
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED
TJ
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.