UFC Vegas 18 – Volkov vs Overeem Predictions

04 February 2021

Last updated: 19 February 2021 at 5:23 am

After a short stint on Fight Island, the UFC is back at the Apex in Las Vegas. This UFC Vegas 18 Fight Night card kicks off at least 10 consecutive weeks with a UFC card. This is also the first of three consecutive Fight Night cards headlined by heavyweights.

By the time UFC 260 rolls around and Miocic vs Ngannou 2 is ready to take place, we will have shuffling at the top of the division and perhaps have a heavyweight opponent set up for Jon Jones.

This card is quite solid for a Fight Night, and the main and co-main events should certainly deliver from an entertainment perspective. Alexander Volkov vs Alistair Overeem is a very close heavyweight scrap. With Volkov set at a -190 favorite, I certainly believe there is a good deal of value on Overeem, however, it falls just short of being a dedicated play.

Overeem remains a more powerful striker than Volkov and is still a capable one, but Volkov will be the busier fighter on the feet. The volume will push Volkov ahead on the scorecards and Overeem will have to mix in his new found wrestling to put his top game to use to bridge that volume gap and look better to the judges.

I think he will be able to get Volkov to the mat, the question is whether he will be able to establish control and put some ground and pound to work. I lean towards the yes side, and with that comes value on the betting line. If making a wager on the main event, lean towards the value on the Reem side.

In the co-main event we have a nice bantamweight fight between Cory Sandhagen and Frankie Edgar. This fight should act as a stepping stone for Sandhagen to work his way back to the title picture. The -420 price on Sandhagen is more than I’m willing to pay, but it is certainly a fair one as his striking will own this fight. He is much longer, quicker and a busier striker than Edgar and has underrated power.

By the time Edgar figures out the funky movement of Sandhagen to shoot competent takedown attempts, it will already be too late to salvage the fight. Even if Edgar were to score some takedowns, he won’t be able to control Sandhagen and the paths to victory for Edgar are truly extremely limited. Top control time stealing rounds is likely the path for him, and I view that as an unlikely one.

We don’t have any bets on the highly hyped portion of this UFC picks card, but we do have three plays on the portion of the card. Let’s dive into those.

TJ Calkins

TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.