UFC Fight Island 6 – Ortega vs Korean Zombie betting picks and predictions

October 15, 2020

After last week’s card delivered in a huge way, this card projects to be completely on par with last week’s. While it is a bummer we lost Ciryl Gane in the co main event, there is still plenty of fun fights and we still have 11 of them, despite losing the heavyweight bout. Read last week’s Fight Island 5 review.

We will have four dedicated UFC picks this week, but we are absent a play in the main event, so I wanted to touch on that fight before diving into the plays.

This weeks picks. Keep reading for thoughts on the main event and full betting play analysis.

FightBetting Play
Jessica Andrade -150 vs Katlyn ChookagianAndrade -150
Jim Crute -340 vs Modestas BukauskasCrute ITD -170
James Krause -160 vs Claudio SilvaSilva +140
Junyong Park -260 vs John PhillipsPhillips ITD +310
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Brian Ortega vs Chan Sung Jung aka the Korean Zombie

At long last, we get Brian Ortega vs Chan Sung Jung aka the Korean Zombie. Dana White has come out and said unequivocally that this fight is a number one contender matchup. I am a huge fan of Brian Ortega, even more so than I am of Zombie, but this fight presents stylistic problems for Ortega that I am quite skeptical he can overcome. While Ortega is better than essentially everyone in the BJJ game at featherweight, he still has issues getting fights to the floor where he can put his skill set to work. Instead, he often chooses to box and attack front chokes when they become available, and in this fight that means a great deal of boxing. The problem therein for Ortega is Zombie is a better and more powerful striker. As Ortega pressures, Zombie will be sitting with the counter game ready to fly. Ortega won’t eat as many strikes as he did in the Max Holloway fight, but he will wear the damage just the same and Zombie carries more power than Holloway does.

Now, despite having the striking be a likely problem for Ortega, he does have the great equalizer in his jitz game. It doesn’t take pure wrestling for fights to hit the mat, and trips, slips and guard pulls are all options on that side of things. Zombie is quite a competent grappler himself, but I can assure you he wants no part of the Ortega ground game, whether top side or off his back, and will do everything in his power to avoid it.

Another key for Ortega is what improvements he has made with his new team. He cleaned house after being demolished in the title shot against Holloway. He’s not switched to the best training center or team in the world, but the Huntington Beach Ultimate Training Center has the likes of TJ Dillashaw and Cub Swanson, and certainly can’t make things worse than they were for Ortega.

With all the factors at play and a nearly 2:1 price tag for Zombie, it’s best to sit out this one. I am picking Zombie to win, but am not confident enough to lay the odds on it.

Jessica Andrade -150 vs Katlyn Chookagian

Betting Play: Andrade -150

Fight is at 125 lbs and is +165 to end inside the distance.

Jessica Andrade makes the move up to flyweight, and it is one that likely helps her in the long run. She already had fun power at 115 and that will only be accentuated at 125, but it should help her durability and the drain of the tough weight cuts she faced. Now, she has an odd body type for 125, standing just 5’1” tall with a 62” reach. For reference, she will be at an 8” height and 6” reach disadvantage in this fight. No matter, she has no issues bulldogging forward and forcing her way into the pocket to exchange. She also attacks takedowns, and more specifically slams which have become something of her calling card, and she should have success in that area in this fight. Katlyn Chookagian isn’t a helpless grappler by any means, but has defended just half of takedown attempts in the UFC and has shown her game off her back is a spot that can be exploited by higher end fighters. Andrade on top could be a huge problem for Chookagian.

In the stand up, Chookagian throws many strikes at the thin air and likes to keep range without ever really thinking of finishing fights. To say she is a point fighter would be an understatement, as she enters the octagon with the sole thought of how to look better to the judges. She will try to keep range but Andrade is not a fighter that accepts that, and will bully her way inside and force action, something Chookagian generally doesn’t enjoy. I mentioned Andrade should have improved durability at 125, but that is unlikely to come into play in this fight in any event. Chookagain simply doesn’t bring a power element that has been the downfall of Andrade in the past.  

We will see one fighter come in trying to score points while the other comes in looking to drop damage and seeking a finish. I want the fighter looking to fight and the one unafraid of a hard fight, and that is Andrade. I think she puts damage on Chookagain and wins rounds with top control and activity. I am unsure if a finish comes or not, but at a friendly -150, Andrade flat is the avenue of attack.

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