UFC Fight Island 5 – Sandhagen vs Moraes betting picks and predictions

October 7, 2020

Thanks for stopping back for the goods on the fifth installment of the Fight Island Fight Night series. This card is packed with both quality and quantity, we have 13 fights with some very sound matchmaking, and additionally have the last eight fights on the card with a minus figure to end inside the distance. This is an improvement over last week’s card, that lacked name value and, especially in the co-main event portion lacked entertainment value as well. Look for any worries like that to be remedied by this card and only continue to grow. Next week’s fight night is headlined by the much anticipated Zombie vs Ortega scrap and the following week ends our wait for UFC 254 and the Gaethje vs Khabib unification of the lightweight titles.

This weeks picks. Keep reading for full analysis on each fight.

FightBetting Play
Cory Sandhagen vs Marlon MoraesSandhagen -140
Edson Barboza vs Makwan AmirkhaniBarboza ITD +115
Ben Rothwell vs Marcin TyburaRothwell ITD +170
Tom Aspinall vs Alan BaudotAspinall ITD -240
Tom Breese vs KB BhullarBreese ITD +175
Rodrigo Nascimento vs Chris DaukausNascimento ITD -150
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Last week was a poor one from a betting perspective. The dedicated plays went just 1-3, let’s review them.

❌ Loss – Irene Aldana +100
This fight was an absolute massacre, and not in the way envisioned. Holm and her corner put together a masterful game plan that was executed perfectly and Aldana and her team simply had no answer but to chase. Holm’s circular movement was never cut off properly, only chased, and Aldana’s corner was no help. Each round was essentially a replay of the previous one. Aldana blamed herself in post fight comments but the reality is she should be looking at her team as at least an equal culprit for the loss.

❌ Loss – Yorgan de Castro ITD -105
It was a pretty safe assumption that Felipe was going to get his lead leg chewed up, but coaching won the day in this fight as well. Felipe came out blatantly and obviously showing that he was going to check the calf kicks, and de Castro was somewhat gun shy the whole way. What developed was an ugly and sloppy heavyweight snoozer that saw Felipe win on the scorecards.

❌ Loss – Charles Jourdain ITD -140
This fight was going to plan until Cuilbao landed a stiff punch late in the first round that dropped Jourdain. Jourdain came back and was pressing to finish the fight, but simply could not get the job done before the final bell.

✅ Win – Loma Lookboonmee -140
This was our one bet of the night that went fully to plan. Loma was simply the better striker and better fighter and walked away with an easy decision win.

The 1-3 night cost us 2.45 units and brings us to 52-43 for +33.40 units on the year.

On to this week’s bets, we will have a better week this week!

Cory Sandhagen -140 vs Marlon Moraes

Betting Play: Sandhagen -140

Fight is five rounds at 135 lbs and is -190 to end inside the distance.

After staring at the words “Holm vs Aldana” for a week last week, I am stoked for this main event. It is a banger of a fight to make and a big step up from last week. This fight will put a fairly straightforward pecking order for shots at Petr Yan’s title in place at bantamweight. Sandhagen lost to Aljamain Sterling in his last fight and the line for the title shot starts with him. Marlon Moraes “won” a decision against Jose Aldo in his last fight, but the promotion made it clear they did not agree with that outcome when they gave Aldo the title shot ahead of Moraes.

Despite this fight being an exciting one, it will only take a round or two to essentially know which way the fight will go. I believe Moraes has just that 1-2 round window to win this fight, and if he is unable to, we will progressively see a lopsided runaway on the Sandhagen side.

Moraes has advantages in this matchup. He is a more powerful and more technical striker, and certainly brings that fight ending ability in the early portion of his fights. His kicks are quite dangerous, and he really doesn’t need idea distance to set them up, and Sandhagen will have to be hyper aware of those, particularly in the first and probably the second round. Moraes is also the better grappler in this matchup, but that advantage is unlikely to be pressed. He would likely be able to land a takedown or two in this fight, but I feel he is more likely to secure a finish while standing than on the floor, and being on the floor would drain his gas tank even more so, which would be making an existing problem larger.

We talked about the areas where Moraes holds an advantage, but there are even more areas for Sandhagen. He is considerably longer than Moraes, pumps out far more volume and does very well to control distance and use his reach to continuously touch his opponents. He seems to have an endless gas tank and motor as well, and that is what will push Sandhagen over the edge later in this fight. We have seen Moraes slow down considerably as his fights progressed in the past, and the pace of Sandhagen could see that come to fruition sooner than later in this one. While Sandhagen does not have the one shot fight ending ability that Moraes does, he is quite capable of finishing fights via attrition, and I think that is the most likely outcome in the later stages of this fight. He could also win a lopsided decision as he runs away with the fight in the later portion.

With the flat line being just -140 on Sandhagen, and covering all avenues of victory, that is the prudent side and play for this fight. We will be on pins and needles watching the first couple rounds while Moraes is dangerous, but once he makes it through, we can sit back and enjoy the remainder and the Sandhagen win.

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