UFC Fight Island 12 – Hall vs Silva Betting Picks and Predictions

October 28, 2020

Coming off a fantastic UFC 254 card, we are going from a completely unexpected retirement to a completely expected and honestly overdue one.

Of course, we were all shocked when Khabib Nurmagomedov retired after his win over Justin Gaethje. It was the epitome of going out on top and retiring undefeated on arguably the greatest three fight stretch of all time. Those three fights were consecutive submission wins over Gaethje, Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor, who are the cream of the crop in the lightweight division.

In addition to that end of an era in the main event, the card itself completely delivered with great matchmaking and fun finishes. We had just one play on the card in Lauren Murphy who secured a dominant win and finish, and our leans went 5-2, so it was a very successful day overall. UFC 254 can be read here.

Onto this weeks UFC predictions and the aforementioned overdue retirement. Anderson Silva walks into his final fight at 45 years old, and doesn’t look to match up well against Uriah Hall at this point in time.

The co-main event features rising hype train Bryce Mitchell getting his stiffest test to date, but be aware, he will be debuting the camo fighting trunks he has been asking for. We also get a very fun banger between Kevin Holland and Makhmud Muradov as the third of the trio of fights to close out the card, and we will have a wager on each of those, in addition to the one leading up to it. Let’s get to the four late card wagers.

This weeks picks. Keep reading for thoughts on the main event and full betting play analysis.

FightBetting Play
Uriah Hall -230 vs Anderson SilvaHall ITD +170
Bryce Mitchell -150 vs Andre FiliFili +130
Kevin Holland -145 vs Makhmud MuradovHolland -145
Greg Hardy -315 vs Maurice GreeneHardy ITD -145
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Uriah Hall -230 vs Anderson Silva

Betting Play: Hall ITD +170

Fight is five rounds at 185 lbs and is -115 to end inside the distance.

In the intro, I mentioned the retirement fight for Anderson Silva is coming too light. He is absolutely one of the all time greats and a legend, but the 45 year old version leaves something to be desired.

He’s earned just one win and zero finishes since 2012 and is 1-6-1 in that span. While he still possesses the skills he has always had, a 45 year old body is still a 45 year old body and he is significantly diminished. The dynamism and athleticism he once possessed is simply no more.

On the other side, Uriah Hall is arguably in the best fighting shape of his career, and has seen something of a resurgence of late. He seems to be past the mental issues that held him back in the past, and looks great in the cage. He has an elite jab that will do well to wear down and touch Silva early on in the fight.

Silva does still possess great head movement, but that won’t completely counteract a good and stinging jab like Hall’s. Silva is also very susceptible to leg kicks and has no shortage of injury history on his legs. An early approach of jabs and leg kicks will set up Hall to have a lead and the ability to unleash power as the fight progresses.

Silva will likely hold his own for a period, but this version of him is sadly just a shell of the fighter we all came to love. I cannot envision him finding a finish and I also cannot envision him out pointing Hall should it go to a decision.

I don’t believe we have a wide enough line here and -230 is very attractive for Hall. Even more attractive, is wagering Silva can’t make it through 25 minutes and taking the ITD line of +170 for Hall. Once Hall diminishes Silva with the jabs and leg kicks, he will bring the power and find a finish.

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