Three Super Bowl Prop Bets Everyone Should Take

February 3, 2021

Betting Play: Take ‘yes’ for the first two prop bets (pick-6 and 1000+ yards of total offense). But do not put down a significant amount on either of them. If you only want to take one, go with both teams to combine for 1000+ yards of offense.

For some bettors, just betting on the outcome of the Super Bowl is enough. But since it is the last football game of the year, many will put money down on one (or more) of the hundreds of Super Bowl prop bets.

Saying there are hundreds of them may be drastically underestimating how many Super Bowl prop bets there are. During the regular season and playoffs, games will have quite a few.

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However, for the Super Bowl, sportsbooks really step up their game.

For the most part, it is almost impossible to do anything more than guess with most of them. Some colors of Gatorade have been more prevalent than others over the year. But is there a pattern you can trust? Of course not.

As for most of the player-production related ones, it is impossible to make much more than a semi-educated guess for most of them. But since player production is somewhat dependent on what defenses are allowing and who is having a good day—you might as well guess.

Does that mean you should not take any Super Bowl prop bets? Absolutely not. While many of them are arbitrary, you can make a reasonable assumption about some of them. If the odds are right and the wager has value, it is not hard to justify putting money down.

So—are there any you should consider taking this year?    

Three Super Bowl Prop Bets That Are Worth Taking

When people talk ‘value’ in the world of sports betting, they are referring to a bet having better ‘true’ odds than what oddsmakers are giving it. What does that mean? There is value in a bet when the risk is worth the potential reward.

The downside to bets that have ‘value’ is that the odds are against you winning for a reason. While you may find it easy to make a case for the side you want to take, it is just as easy to make a case for the other side.

Does that mean you should avoid such bets? Of course not, but you may not want to bet the house on them.

The following are Super Bowl prop bets that everyone should consider taking.

Pick-6

  • Will An Interception Be Returned For A Touchdown (via WilliamHill)
    • Yes +425
    • No -550

According to the odds, there is a 19.05 percent chance an interception is returned for a touchdown Sunday and an 84.62 percent chance one is not. The smart bet looks kind of obvious when you look at it that way—and the stats back it up.

There were 395 interceptions during the regular season this year, of which 31 were returned for touchdowns (Chiefs had two; Bucs had one). That comes out to a rate of just 7.8 percent. Patrick Mahomes only threw six during the regular season while Tom Brady threw 12, two of which came against the Chiefs.

It sounds like there is an obvious reason why the odds heavily favor no. Why then is there any value in taking ‘yes?’ Because Tom Brady threw three interceptions in the NFL title game. While Green Bay did not have the kind of guys that could do something with the ball, the Chiefs defense does.

Total Offense

  • Will Both Teams Combine For 1000+ Net Yards In Game (via WilliamHill)
    • Yes +400
    • No -500

According to the odds, there is a 20 percent chance the Chiefs and Buccaneers combine for 1000+ yards of offense and an 83.3 percent chance they do not. Once again, the stats make the right bet seem obvious.

During the regular season, both teams combined averaged 800+ yards of offense a game but allowed less than 700. The numbers have not been too different in the postseason. So, what gives taking ‘yes’ any value?

While the Buccaneers have only cleared the 500+ yard threshold three times this season, it is clear that the potential is there. As for the Chiefs, they have four 500+ yard games and eight in the 400-499 range(regular season and playoffs). Clearly, the potential is there as well.

Back in Week 12, they combined for 960 yards of offense.

Super Bowl MVP

  • Position of Super Bowl MVP (via BetMGM)
    • Offense -1200
    • Defense +750

The odds heavily favor an offensive player for a reason—more often than not, the Super Bowl MVP is either a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver.

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Betting Play: Take ‘yes’ for the first two prop bets (pick-6 and 1000+ yards of total offense). But do not put down a significant amount on either of them. If you only want to take one, go with both teams to combine for 1000+ yards of offense.

But if the Buccaneers were to win the Super Bowl, it is not hard to imagine the defense leading the charge like it has for two of their three postseason games.

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Travis
Travis Pulver
Travis a native-Texan which is where his love of football originated. But after moving around a lot when he was younger, he was able to develop an appreciation for the game and not just his favorite teams. He now lives in Indiana with his wife, Nicole, and two kids, Jackson and Addison. You can find him on Twitter at @FatManWriting.