Thiem vs Isner - ATP Madrid Predictions

May 6, 2021

Thiem vs Isner is the first quarterfinal of the day at the ATP Madrid Masters on Friday morning. Thiem is certainly the better clay court player historically, but Isner has utilized some favorable conditions to blast his serve through everyone who has stood in his way this week. In this round of tennis picks, we look at Thiem and Isner’s confrontation in the Madrid quarterfinals.

Dominic Thiem vs John Isner Betting Pick

Thiem vs Isner Pick: Over 2.5 Sets (+148)

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Dominic Thiem entered the Madrid Masters having been out of action for a month and a half. But he has looked good in his first two matches, winning against Marcos Giron and Alex De Minaur in straight sets. Here, Thiem faces his toughest test of the week against an opponent in Isner who takes the racquet out of the hands of his opponents in most matches.

After destroying Giron in his first match this week, Thiem was tested by De Minaur despite winning in straight sets. The first set went to a tiebreak, which was tight until the very end when Thiem pulled it out. If Thiem ends up in a tiebreak against Isner, he may not be as fortunate given Isner’s superlative record and experience in breakers.

John Isner has played three matches this week in Madrid, going the distance in each of his last two. After taking Miomir Kecmanovic out in straight sets, the American beat Roberto Bautista-Agut and Andrey Rublev in deciding sets. Isner will need to be ready for another difficult match here against his Austrian adversary.

Fortunately for Isner, he will be aided by the altitude in Madrid, a location on tour that he has described as ideal for his massive serve. The altitude, while not quite on the level of Quito on the tour schedule, is about half of what Denver, Colorado has to offer. That has helped Isner thump 89 aces in his three matches this week. If he can approach 30 for a fourth straight match, he could reach the semifinals.

Thiem vs Isner has been played three times previously, with Thiem taking two of those three matchups. Their lone matchup on clay came in 2015 in Nice, with Thiem taking that match in straight sets, though the first set was decided in a tiebreak. The Austrian will look to avoid any tiebreak situations this time around, as Isner is 4-1 in tiebreaks this week.

This Thiem vs Isner showdown will play out the way that most John Isner matches do. There will be at least one tiebreak involved, and the margins will be razor-thin on each side. While Thiem should win this match, expect these players to split the first two sets en route to a deciding third set. The over 2.5 sets bet is the way to go in what should be a tense affair.

Thiem vs Isner Pick: Over 2.5 Sets (+148)

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Tennis Betting FAQ

What went wrong with Tsitsipas on Thursday?

To be honest, Tsitsipas was just outplayed by Casper Ruud. Ruud deserves all of the credit in the world for the match he played, as he would have been able to beat just about anyone that day. With Bublik being next to face Ruud, the Norwegian may end up in the semifinals of the Madrid Masters.

Who is behind Nadal on the odds board?

Rafael Nadal is close to -150 to win Madrid heading into Friday’s action. Tsitsipas was second to Nadal on the list of favorites prior to his loss to Ruud. But Dominic Thiem now sits at +325 to claim this Masters 1000 title. He will have to get through Isner before he can think about getting to the final, though.

What other matches are happening on Friday?

In addition to Thiem vs Isner and Ruud vs Bublik, there are two other matches to be played on Friday. Nadal vs Zverev will be the match that garners the most attention. And Berrettini vs Garin will be the final match of what should be an exciting day in Spain.

Jay
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is a sports writer and broadcaster from Albany, NY. He has covered sports betting and the gambling industry since 2013.