Tai Tuivasa vs DonTale Mayes Predictions

18 March 2021

Last updated: 19 March 2021 at 9:59 am

UFC Vegas 23

Tai Tuivasa -220 vs DonTale Mayes

Fight is at heavyweight and is -160 to end inside the distance.

Betting Pick: Tuivasa ITD +125

Every once in awhile we get a matchup that sets up perfectly for one fighter from a stylistic standpoint. This is one of those fights and it sets up for Tuivasa as well as it possibly could. The most wild part of that? The line on Tuivasa has actually been bet down over the course of this week. True unawareness from the betting public here.

Tuivasa has had an Achilles heel in MMA, and that has been being taken down and beaten on the floor. Before his impressive KO of Struve in his last fight, he was beaten by three opponents on the floor. This is the great news for Tuivasa in this matchup, as Mayes is not a high end wrestler nor grappler.

Mayes is a striker, and as always, I remain unimpressed by his game. He lacks real power for the division and he is additionally hittable. In this matchup with the durable Tuivasa, the challenge for Mayes will be to survive the power of Tuivasa and land enough to earn a decision.

I see this fight as one where Tuivasa is far more dangerous and the fighter that will be the one chewing up the lead leg of his opponent. He will also be the fighter that can one bomb his way to a finish and I additionally see him as the better technical striker.

The real value in this UFC Vegas 22 fight is on the ITD line for Tuivasa, which sits at a plus figure! Tuivasa has finished three of his four UFC wins, and this will be one of his lowest level opponents to date. Tuivasa ITD +125 is the play.

Betting Play: Tuivasa ITD +125

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