Super Bowl Prop Bets: Fat Man TD And Doink Special

January 29, 2021

Regular sports bettors will find the Super Bowl prop bets related to production and scoring intriguing enough to command their attention for Super Bowl LV.

However, the millions of casual fans watching the game are going to be a little more interested in some of the other prop bets, the ones they think look ‘more fun.’

Why are they more fun? They do not require much football knowledge if any. That makes them perfect for all the non-football fans looking for a way to make the Super Bowl more interesting to watch.

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It is probably why sportsbooks run with Super Bowl prop bets on things like the national anthem, the commercials, the halftime show, etc. That could also be why sportsbooks run with prop bets regarding obscure events that rarely happen during any football game, let alone the Super Bowl.

Can anyone remember the last time an offensive or defensive scored in a Super Bowl? How about the last time a field goal or extra-point attempt hit the upright or crossbar?

The Fat Man Touchdown

Is it more exciting to see Tyreek Hill run around and through the defense to score a touchdown than it is to see Andrew Wylie catch a one-yard jump pass from Mahomes? Of course, it is!

But offensive linemen scoring are unique plays that do not happen often.

Since they are rare plays, they are the kind of plays that can catch opponents off-guard. What better time is there to do that than the Super Bowl?

However, it does not seem like the oddsmakers at DraftKings think it is going to happen this year:  

  • Any Offensive Lineman to score a touchdown
    • Yes +2000
    • No -10000
  • Any Offensive or Defensive Lineman to Score a Touchdown
    • Yes +800
    • No -2000

The best chance for a defensive lineman is when someone forces a fumble or makes an interception near the goal line. But neither team has been turnover prone this year.

However, the Chiefs had nine fumbles during the regular season (Buccaneers had five). Tampa Bay was one of the better defenses with ten recovered fumbles.

The Chiefs did have one offensive lineman score a touchdown in the regular season, Eric Fisher (one of two in the NFL this season).

But Fisher is out for the Super Bowl after tearing his Achilles against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game and is one of just two offensive linemen to score a touchdown in the NFL this season.

However, eight defensive linemen did record a touchdown during the regular season. They do have a better chance than offensive linemen.

But it still does not happen very often.

The Doink Special

Few things are as frustrating to fans as the fate of a game being in the hands of the kicker. If the fate of the season or a game like the Super Bowl were going to be in the hands of one player, no one would say their kicker.

Every fan would more than likely say their quarterback or running back, not their kicker.

Up until their playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens fans might have said they would be okay with the game being in the hands of their kicker, Justin Tucker, the most accurate kicker in NFL history.

But then he had two field goals hit the uprights against the Bills.

While they would not have made much of a difference in the end, his ‘doinks’ will be remembered and talked about long after anyone can recall the game’s outcome.

Just ask Cody Parkey, the not-so-proud owner of possibly the greatest’ doink’ in NFL history—the ‘double doink’ that ended the best season the Chicago Bears had in over a decade in the wildcard round.

It does not matter that the Bears were in the game because of the three field goals Parkey made. The only thing anyone remembers is the last kick bouncing off the upright and then bouncing off the crossbar before landing on the field.  

Such plays are memorable, which is likely what will draw some bettors to the ‘Doink Special’ DraftKings has posted:

  • Any Field Goal or Extra point attempt to hit Uprights or crossbar
    • Yes +400
    • No -625

So – How Should You Bet?

Betting Play: The safe move is to pass on all three. But with the odds on an offensive lineman scoring, it may be worth it to put $10 down (and win $200) on the off-chance it happens.

The last time a non-skill position player recorded a Super Bowl touchdown was then-New England Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel. He had on in 2004 and 2005. As for the defensive side, there was William “the Refrigerator” Perry back in Super Bowl XX.

So, there is no good reason to take either of the Fat Man TD wagers.

But regarding the ‘Doink Special,’ there are no stats on kicks hitting crossbars or uprights. So, it is impossible to make an analytical decision. However, with the odds being offered, the payoff is not worth risking any amount of money.

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Travis
Travis Pulver
Travis a native-Texan which is where his love of football originated. But after moving around a lot when he was younger, he was able to develop an appreciation for the game and not just his favorite teams. He now lives in Indiana with his wife, Nicole, and two kids, Jackson and Addison. You can find him on Twitter at @FatManWriting.