• Sat
    Jun 19
  • 12:30 am
    BKN
    MIL
    -120
    100
  • 12:00 am
    NYI
    TBL
    125
    -147
  • Fri
    Jun 18
  • 2:00 am
    LAC
    UTA
    100
    -120
  • 12:00 am
    MTL
    VGK
    140
    -167
  • Thu
    Jun 17
  • FINAL
    NYI
    TBL
    118
    -139
  • Wed
    Jun 16
  • FINAL
    PHI
    ATL
    -278
    230
  • Tue
    Jun 15
  • FINAL
    BKN
    MIL
    125
    -149
  • Mon
    Jun 14
  • FINAL
    VGK
    MTL
    -250
    200
  • FINAL
    ATL
    PHI
    120
    -145
  • Sun
    Jun 13
  • FINAL
    DEN
    PHX
    105
    -130
  • FINAL
    TBL
    NYI
    -189
    155
  • FINAL
    MIL
    BKN
    110
    -135
  • Fri
    Jun 11
  • FINAL
    DEN
    PHX
    -130
    105
  • FINAL
    ATL
    PHI
    100
    -120
  • Thu
    Jun 10
  • FINAL
    UTA
    LAC
    -149
    125
  • FINAL
    VGK
    COL
    -114
    -103
  • Wed
    Jun 9
  • FINAL
    PHX
    DEN
    -278
    210
  • FINAL
    NYI
    BOS
    118
    -139
  • Tue
    Jun 8
  • FINAL
    UTA
    LAC
    -175
    145
  • FINAL
    COL
    VGK
    -145
    120
  • FINAL
    PHI
    ATL
    -179
    148

Robert Whittaker vs Kelvin Gastelum Predictions

April 14, 2021

UFC

Robert Whittaker -265 vs Kelvin Gastelum

Betting Play: Whittaker ITD +255

Fight is five rounds at 185 lbs and is +105 to end inside the distance.

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Betting Play: Whittaker ITD +255

While this line might seem a bit wide on the surface, I do not believe that to be the case. We saw that Robert Whittaker has not at all lost a step in his most recent convincing wins over Darren Till and Jared Cannonier. His striking and movement are as sharp as ever, and the former champ will be hungry to get back to a title shot.

On the Kelvin Gastelum side, I believe we have a fighter that is on the decline. What’s more, I don’t believe Gastelum was ever quite on the level of Whittaker, even at his peak.

Gastelum did look better in his most recent fight against Ian Heinisch, but looks can be deceiving on that one. He was not able to own Heinisch in the stand up porting of that fight. He was forced to resort to wrestling to cruise to that win, but that is alarming for the matchup with Whittaker. If a fighter is on the same level of striking as Heinisch, they are going to get dismantled by Whittaker.

The wrestling and grappling heavy approach Gastleum employed against Heinisch will simply not bring him the same success against Whittaker. What we will see is Gastelum having nothing to resort to as Whittaker begins to pull away and damage him in the striking.

Prior to the Heinisch fight, Gastelum lost four of six fights, including three straight against top competition. This matchup is tougher than at least three of the fighters Gastelum lost to, and is perhaps the most stylistically troublesome for him.

Whittaker is simply the quicker, more powerful and better striker in all aspects. This fight won’t be decided on the mat, and the fact that it is five rounds spells trouble for Gastelum. In a three round fight I would almost certainly play Whittaker flat, but we have a five round main event. That means an additional 10 minutes for Whittaker to pile on more damage, and I think that extra time brings a finish as the damage truly adds up.

When I dove into this UFC Vegas 24 fight and had not yet checked ITD lines, I assumed the play would be laying the juice on Whittaker flat. When it turned out that the -265 favorite carried a massive value of +255 on the ITD line, I simply couldn’t pass it up.

I truly believe this fight against this version of Gastelum is the easiest Whittaker has had since his first round KO of Derek Brunson back in 2016. Whittaker has gone 5-1 since then against better competition. Look for him to progressively take over this fight and damage Gastelum badly on his way to finish.

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TJ
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.