Popyrin vs Opelka – ATP Miami Betting Picks

Popyrin vs Opelka is a matchup between players who are excellent at commanding matches with their serves. While Opelka has a reputation for being one of the best servers on tour, Popyrin is someone who should not be slept on in that regard either. In this round of tennis predictions, we look into the recent history of both players and get you our best bet for this battle of efficient servers.

Since leaving the Australia bubble after February’s Australian Open, Alexei Popyrin has been one of the hottest players on the ATP World Tour. Popyrin has won seven of his eight matches since then, including a run that saw him win his maiden title at the tour level in Singapore. His lone loss during this stretch came in Dubai against Karen Khachanov, a player there is no shame in losing to.

Popyrin has won 82% of his service games on this surface over the past year. But what is impressive about his serving is the fact that he wins 53% of his second serve points. He ranks 16th on tour in terms of second serve points converted. That number really helps him get through service games, even when his first serve isn’t at its best. Against a serve bot like Opelka, this can help him pick up crucial service holds.

Reilly Opelka has a big first serve, but he hasn’t had much to show for it as of late. The American has lost each of his last four matches dating back to the Australian Open. He has faced some tough competition over those four matches, including a red hot Marton Fucsovics, Roberto Bautista-Agut and Kei Nishikori. But Opelka has been a disappointment in not being able to take down any of those players.

For Opelka, the serve is about all he can rely on in his game. He lacks consistency with his groundstrokes, and often seems to check out of long rallies, trying to end them with mixed results. If Opelka wants to break his losing streak in this match, he will absolutely need to do a better job than he has been of making a dent in the serve of his opponent.

This is the first time that Popyrin vs Opelka has taken place as a match on the ATP World Tour. But both players have shown a recent tendency to go the distance in their matches. Opelka has seen his last four matches go the distance, including a five-set affair against Taylor Fritz that led to his elimination in the Australian Open. Popyrin has had six of his last 11 matches go the distance, including two five-set matches in Melbourne.

For both of these players, the serve dictates what kind of day they will have. Because of that, it is not inconceivable that they both take a set to force a decider. Expect a tiebreak or two, and for these two players to play a match that is even at one set apiece heading into the third. At plus money, we like the over 2.5 sets market in Popyrin vs Opelka.