Oregon State Beavers vs. Washington Huskies Betting Picks

November 13, 2020

Date:Saturday, November 14th
Time:11:00 PM ET
Network:FS1
Venue:Husky Stadium
Spread:Washington -14
O/U:51.5

The 0-1 Oregon State Beavers will go on the road Saturday night to face off with the 0-0 Washington Huskies at 11:00 PM ET in Husky Stadium. You can tune into the matchup on FS1. The Huskies come in as 14-point home favorites and we’re expecting a defensive battle with a 51.5 over/under. We don’t have much tape on either of these teams, but it’s fair to assume the Huskies are going to control the game. They are the better team on both sides of the ball and Oregon State didn’t look great in week one. Let’s dive into how this game will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my NCAAF Picks and Predictions for this weekend slate of games.

Trends

  • Oregon State is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against Washington.
  • Washington is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington’s last 5 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington’s last 11 games against an opponent in the Pac-12 conference.

When The Oregon State Beavers Have The Ball

The Beavers are coming off a 38-28 loss to the Washington State Cougars in a game that was very disappointing if you’re a Cougars fan. The offense was fine, but the defense couldn’t stop anything. They gave up 40 points to a weak WSU offense and will now face an even better Washington team. If Oregon State wants any shot of covering this spread, the defense has to be a whole lot better. They must put pressure on the QB and can’t allow 10 yards of cushion to the receivers.

The Beavers played insanely fast in the opener and they ended up throwing the ball 48 times and running it another 31. With Jake Luton on the Jags, they’re now led by junior Tristan Gebbia, who’s been sitting in the wings learning. He looked great in game one, completing 70% of his passes for 329 yards and score without throwing an interception.

Gebbia did an excellent job of spreading the ball around with eight different pass-catchers getting involved. Trevon Bradford caught the only touchdown and led the way with seven catches for 78 yards. Kolby Taylor also caught seven passes out of the slot for 55 yards. Luke Musgrave, Champ Flemings, Jermar Jefferson, and Zeriah Beason all caught at least three passes as well. This is a dangerous attack if Gebbia can continue driving the ball down the field with success.

The Beavers best player on offense is halfback Jermar Jefferson and they always find a way to get him involved. He rushed it 21 times for 120 yards and three touchdowns in the opener, averaging over five yards per carry. He added five receptions for another 50 yards and is the best bet for the Beavers to pull off an upset here. They must get the ball in the hands of Jefferson at least 25 times.

When The Washington Huskies Have The Ball

This will be the first time we see the Huskies take the field this season and it remains to be seen how good they will be without Jacob Eason. Eason was the heart and soul of this offense and he will be replaced by freshman Ethan Garbers. Garbers is a massive five-star recruit and the hopes are high. He has all the makeup you look for in a superstar QB and the coaching staff hasn’t stopped hyping him up this offseason.

He’ll be working with some elite weapons and it starts with Terrell Bynum. He was the Huskies second-leading receiver in 2019 with 368 yards and two scores. He will step into the WR1 role with Ty Jones and Nuka Pacua joining him. Pacua has immense upside and is the guy I expect to finish the season with the most yards and touchdowns. Washington always uses their TE and it’ll be Cade Otton who makes the noise after Hunter Bryant left.

Both leading rushers are also gone, so it’s Kamari Pleasant and Sean McGrew that will split time in the backfield. Pleasant has a ton of upside and will likely see the bulk of the carries here. He’s also better in the passing game and will be targeted on at least a screen or two. This offense has gone through a complete overhaul this year and while the recruiting is promising, you never know what you will get until you take the field.

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Oregon State +14

I’m not willing to give up 14 points on a Washington team that hasn’t taken the field yet and are replacing seven of 11 starters. The Oregon State offense looked phenomenal in the opener and they can win this game if the defense shows up. I expect the Huskies to end up with a victory, but I do like Oregon State to keep it close. I was impressed with Oregon State in their first game and they are a team I will bet ATS for a few weeks as I feel they are mispriced. The final score was extremely misleading.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Over 51.5
Final Score Prediction: Washington 31, Oregon State 21

The over is my favorite bet in this game. While Washington always has a solid defense, they’re replacing half of the starters, including both leading tacklers. It’s going to take time to iron some things out with the shortened season and both offenses will have success in this game. The Oregon State Beavers play extremely fast and they were productive in week one. It will allow both teams to run a ton of plays and the over in this one is one of my favorite bets of the entire weekend.

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