Oregon Ducks (9) vs. Oregon State Beavers Betting Picks and Predictions

November 22, 2020

Date:Friday, November 27th
Time:7:00 PM ET
Network:ESPN
Venue:Reser Stadium
Spread:Oregon -13
O/U:61.5

The 3-0 Oregon Ducks will go on the road Friday night to face off with the 1-2 Oregon State Beavers at 7:00 PM ET in Reser Stadium. You can tune into the matchup on ESPN. The Ducks opened as 16-point favorites, but they’re currently sitting at -13 and we’re expecting plenty of points with a 61.5 over/under. Rivalry games always bring the unexpected and Oregon must be ready to roll. Let’s dive into how this game will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my NCAAF Picks and Predictions for this upcoming weekend slate of games.

Trends

  • Ducks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Beavers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Over is 11-4-1 in Beavers last 16 games in November.

When The Oregon Ducks Have The Ball

The Ducks are undefeated through three games, though they were almost beat as 17.5-point favorites against UCLA a week ago. The Ducks run the ball about 60% of the time and Junior CJ Verdell leads the way. He’s up to 241 yards and three touchdowns on the season with eight catches for another 82 yards. Travis Dye is an excellent complimentary back and he’ll see eight to ten carries here against Oregon State.

Sophomore QB Tyler Shough has been impressive. He’s completed 66.3% of his passes for 873 yards and eight touchdowns with just two interceptions. He’s added 197 yards and a score on the ground and looks to be a solid dual-threat successor to Herbert. He still has room to grow, however, and must take better care of the ball in the RZ. The Ducks will run the ball 25+ times here.

When The Oregon State Beavers Have The Ball

After two straight losses to open the season, Oregon State righted the ship with a 31-27 victory over the California Bears a week ago. They run a more balanced offense than Oregon and junior QB Tristan Gebbia will be leaned on as Oregon will presumably grab the lead early. He’s a pocket passer and looks towards Trevon Bradford and Kolby Taylor in most spots. They’re the only two pass-catchers over 10 catches on the season.

While Gebbia will have to execute in this game, the Beavers lean on HB Jermar Jefferson. He’s up to 449 yards and five touchdowns on the year with six catches for another 51 yards. The ball must find the hands of Jefferson 25+ times if Oregon State wants any shot of winning this ballgame.

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Oregon State +13

Oregon didn’t look great a week ago and now they go on the road to face a rival that has been better every week. The Beavers are going to keep this game close and while I like Oregon to win, they won’t take it by two score. I’ve been impressed with Gebbia and Jefferson through three games and the chemistry looked better than ever a week ago. Give me the Beavers to keep this game close.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Under 61.5
Final Score Prediction: Oregon 31, Oregon State 24

This number is just too high. While both of these offenses would like to play fast, the defenses won’t let it happen. This is a rivalry and both trenches will show up. Nothing will come easy and neither quarterback will have a ton of time in the pocket. It will get close, and I do prefer the Beavers, but the under is certainly my preferred total bet.

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