Ole Miss Rebels vs. Indiana Hoosiers Outback Bowl Betting Picks and Predictions

January 1, 2021

Date:Saturday, January 2nd
Time:12:30 PM ET
Network:ABC
Venue:Raymond James Stadium
Spread:Indiana -7.5
O/U:65.5

The 4-5 Ole Miss Rebels will meet up with the 6-1 Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday afternoon at 12:30 PM ET in the Outback Bowl in Raymond James Stadium. The Hoosiers come in as 9.5-point favorites and we’re expecting a shootout with a 65.5 over/under. The Hoosiers look like the clear better team, but Ole Miss has that SEC charm you can’t ignore. You can tune into the stellar matchup on ABC. Both of these teams Let’s dive into how this game will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of our CFB Picks and Predictions as we will have every single bowl game covered.

Trends

  • Rebels are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
  • Hoosiers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-1 in Rebels last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Hoosiers last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

When The Ole Miss Rebels Have The Ball

It was an ugly season all-around for Ole Miss, who finished under .500 and never found much of a rhythm. This Ole Miss offense showed flashes of success at times against elite defenses for good reason, though. They can beat you both through the air and on the ground and the SEC talent is dangerous when everything clicks. It starts with QB Matt Corral, who’s up to 2,995 yards with 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He must take better care of the ball against Indiana as their defense will take advantage. 

The Rebels have one of the best receivers in the country at their disposal in Elijah Moore. He’s caught 86 balls for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns. The second-leading receiver has just 27 catches, so Moore sees over 50% of the target share and I would be shocked if he isn’t targeted over 10 times in this game. TE Kenny Yeboah and Donatario Drummond have each caught six touchdowns and are excellent in the red zone. They will throw the ball 40 times in this game and

While this offense always leans towards the passing game a bit, they can still run it when the box is emptied out. Jerrion Ealy leads the way with 745 yards and nine touchdowns, followed by Corral’s 469 yards and four scores. This is an offense that plays extremely fast and they’ve been known to trip over their own feet at times. The Rebels must avoid the silly mistakes if they want any chance of upsetting Indiana.

When The Indiana Hoosiers Have The Ball

The Hoosiers have just one loss on the season and have to feel a bit disrespected after getting a 4-5 Ole Miss team to play in a bowl. Their sole loss of the season came by just seven points to Ohio State in a game that was close throughout. With quality wins over Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin, this is a team that knows how to beat quality opponents. 

With Michael Penix Jr. tearing his ACL, sophomore Jack Tuttle has been asked to step in. He wasn’t electric against Wisconsin, but threw for two crucial touchdowns and did enough to pick up the victory. If he can take care of the football, the Indiana offense is a consistent one. It starts with HB Stevie Scott, who sets the tone. He’s averaged just 3.4 yards per carry en route to 462 yards and eight touchdowns. He must put up 80-100 yards to keep Ole Miss guessing and on their heels.

When Tuttle drops back, he has two primary targets in Ty Fryfogle (687 yards, 7 TD) and Whop Philyor (414 yards, 3 TD). The pair has an NFL future and getting it into their hands is the best shot for Indiana to move the ball. Peyton Hendershot is an excellent receiving TE and he’s up to four touchdowns on the season as a big RZ target. All in all, the Indiana defense must step up again and Tuttle has to take care of the football. This isn’t a game where either team can afford more than one or two turnovers at most. 

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Ole Miss +9.5

It’s a mental challenge to lay any money on this Ole Miss team. They’ve been inconsistent all year long and a team bettors have lost money on. With that being said, this is the team that gave Alabama their biggest test of the regular season. When things click, the Rebels are dangerous and the SEC talent shines through. I expect them to be prepared for this game and for them to keep it close with Indiana throughout. I don’t trust either of these defenses and like the game to turn into a bit of a shootout come the second half. Give me Ole Miss to keep it within 9.5 points and there are far worse bets than the Rebels money line.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Over 65.5
Final Score Prediction: Indiana 38, Ole Miss 35

These two teams would like to think they have great defenses, but it’s not reality. Indiana is strong against the run, but you can throw on them over the middle. Ole Miss plays so fast that they give their defense almost no chance. They’re either tired or given terrible field position and it’s hard to have much motivation when the offense keeps scoring. I do like Ole Miss to give Indiana some problems on defense. Corral ran for 150 yards against LSU last week and I like him to use his legs again in this one. Give me the over as these two teams will both out plenty of points up on the board. 

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