NFL Week 9 Review
11 November 2020
In what is easily the most odd year for the NFL in memory, and probably in history, we have seen things begin to normalize over the past few weeks. With that normalization has come better results and returns for us.
I am convinced there were simply so many random outcomes early in the season, it was truly difficult to impossible to get a leg up. Or perhaps I was just very bad to start the season. Either way our ship has seen smoother sailing of late, and we had another solid week this week. Let’s review:
✅ Win – Vikings -4
The Lions were simply understaffed on offense and their defense has been too leaky to truly give the offense a chance. The Vikings were never in any danger of blowing the cover in the second half nad rolled to a 34-20 win and cover. The Lions had no answer for Dalvin Cook.
✅ Win – Ravens -2
The Colts schedule exposed them a bit, and on top of the Ravens defense being the dominant force in this game, they also got us home with our prop of Philip Rivers predictably throwing an interception. The Colts offense was indeed overmatched and the 24-10 final and cover for the Ravens tells the full story on that.
✅ Win – Chiefs/Panthers over 52.5
This was such a fun game and the NFL is simply a better league when Christian McCaffrey is on the field. The 33-31 final gave us exactly what we hoped for in this fun offensive battle. Mahomes and McCaffrey did their normal things and we won both gambling and watching.
❌ Loss – Texans -6.5
We got double back doored in this one. The Texans lead by eight with a minute and a half left. This is when Jake Luton (who played much much better than expected) scored a rushing touchdown, and set up a two point conversion to tie the game. After the touchdown, we needed the Jags to get the two points to tie the game, keeping a cover in play. Alas, it did not happen and it put a dagger in our perfect day.
The 3-1 week brings us to 20-23 on the season. Our prop plays also fared very well, going 5-2. That brings us to 19-20 on the prop season. Check back next week as we get back to profitability on the season.
NFL Week 9 – 2019
The Bills had an easy cover against the Redskins pathetic version of an offense against with Haskins under center. The Panthers rolled on Tennessee behind another monster game from league MVP Christian McCaffrey. The Dolphins got into the win column against the Jets, who were inexplicably favored on the road. The Bucs covered the early week line and were not at risk against that line in overtime. If you were late to get to it, you got the most sickening beat of the week. After the underdog Bucs blew a 21-7 lead, the final play of regulation saw the Seahawks miss a short field goal that would have saw a Bucs cover no matter what the line was. Then finally once it got to overtime, the only negative outcome would be a Seahawks touchdown, which of course came to fruition. Here’s to hoping you got the early week line there.
The Browns could not recover from early game defensive hiccups and lost to the Broncos and our play of the week failed. In amazing fashion, Browns safety Jermaine Whitehead was worse off the field than on the field on Sunday. After perhaps the worst missed tackle in the NFL all season allowing a long Noah Fant touchdown, he turned to social media to threaten fans and media in a racist and disgusting tirade. He was rightfully cut by the Browns on Monday. The Lions lost at Oakland despite a shining performance by the passing offense. The game came down to the final possession but the staff opted for a zero wide receiver set on the last play in a goal to go scenario and the play failed as the players who brought the offensive success watched from the sidelines. The Patriots came out flat in Baltimore on Sunday night and were unable to recover from the first quarter hole that was dug and lost outright.
The only qualifier for this section would be if you got a bad line on the Bucs this week.
4-3 on the Week 9 NFL picks in a worst case scenario outcome.
TJ Calkins –Expert
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday.