Week 5 NFL Picks ‚Äď Picks Against the Spread

October 8, 2020

Much like week 4, we have a Titans game in jeopardy due to positive covid tests, and we do not know whether their matchup with the Bills will be played this week, if at all. What we do know for certain is that game will not be played on Sunday.

Let’s dive into week 5’s NFL picks against the spread.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers +2
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston TexansJaguars +6
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers49ers -9
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle SeahawksSeahawks -7
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Carolina

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Betting Play: Panthers +2

1PM EST
Opening Line: Falcons -3.5 and 5
Current Line: Falcons -2 and 54

Don’t look now but the Panthers are on a two game winning streak. They’ve beaten the Chargers and Cardinals in consecutive weeks. The matchup this week is with the worst coached team in the league in the Falcons, as Dan Quinn aims for a perfect 0-5 and continuing to trick the franchise into employment.

The Falcons defense is an unmitigated disaster, as they have allowed 138 points, second worst to only the Cowboys joke of a defense. 138 points through four weeks simply cannot be understated, that’s 34.5 per game. Their *best* showings from a defensive scoring perspective came in weeks 3 and 4 consecutively, as they allowed only 30 points to the Bears and Packers, losing those games by a combined 18 points.

To make matters worse, the offense, which had been the only thing Elmer’s gluing this sinking ship together has a completely banged up wide receiving corps, and Matt Ryan looked truly putrid on Monday night. There was simply no zip on any of his passes and he either had a mechanical hiccup in that game or his arm is going the way of Philip Rivers. If it is the latter, we could truly see an 0-16 team, because that defense is completely hapless.

The Panthers on the other hand are now exceeding expectations with a 2-2 record. The biggest hole the team had was allowing running backs to just thrash them, but they were able to keep that game plan from coming to fruition against them in the games against the capable Chargers and Cardinals, both wins. The Cardinals offered more of a refusal to unleash Kenyan Drake, but in any event, the Falcons almost assuredly lack that capability with a Todd Gurley lead backfield. At this point in his career, Gurley is a wholly diminished version of himself. While he can be effective in goal line and early down situations, he is no longer a game breaker that can change a game.

Needless to say, it felt just about laughable that the Falcons would be set as favorites, and the public agreed, immediately cutting the line in half. It would be surprising if the Falcons were still favored at all at kickoff on Sunday, and I am happy to get in at any plus figure on the Panthers side. The +2 where it currently sits is value laden.

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