NFL Week 4 Betting Review

October 2, 2020

Last Sunday was an utterly forgettable one for me personally, as I got completely swept on my plays. Thinking back, I’m sure it’s happened before, but this is the first time in many years and in memory I’ve encountered such a Sunday. Let’s walk through what went wrong before diving into righting the ship in Week 5.

Loss – Bears +2.5 – I was off base on thinking the passing attack would be greatly improved with Nick Foles. Granted, they did have late game success, but they could only muster 11 points in a 19-11 loss to the Colts. Granted, the matchup was a tough one, but there is no excuse for scoring three points through 58 minutes. The spotlight of blame for this offense is once again shining on head coach Matt Nagy.

Loss – Lions +4 – This one featured a 14-0 lead being blown to smithereens by the Lions. After allowing those 14 points to be answered, the Lions were going in to retake the lead when Stafford threw an ugly pick in the end zone to swing momentum. The ensuing drive saw the Saints go 80 yards to instead take the lead, and Patricia started the next series with two runs, which resulted in a three and out. That ridiculousness allowed the Saints another chance before the half, which lead to another touchdown. The Lions found themselves by 14 at half as opposed to probably leading by seven. In any event it was a disastrous chain of events that changed the game. After allowing an opening drive touchdown to start the second half, the Lions finally got their feet back under them. The Lions were able to answer back with a touchdown, and the defense did not allow a point for the remainder of the game. After cutting the lead to just 6 with nearly four minutes left, the defense could not get the needed stop to give the offense one more chance, and the four point dogs lost by six. This was a maddening loss to watch first hand.

Loss – Cardinals -3.5 – I really don’t have words for this one. This was a bad one from Kliff Kingsbury, who wouldn’t commit to a run game and get Kenyan Drake going, and the team and our bet suffered. They lost 31-21 to the Panthers and it is time for the Cardinals to take a look in the mirror as to what they are doing on offense if they are to snap this losing streak.

Loss – Texans -3.5 – Well, I laid out the game plan for the Texans loss while picking the Texans. Shame on me. Last week I said Dalvin Cook will have to take over at the onset and throughout, and that is precisely what he did. Where I was way off on the Texans side, was in thinking Brandin Cooks wasn’t Brandin Cooked and that he had anything left. He was a disaster and the Texan offense did not get going until it was too late in the 31-23 loss. Of course, a questionable overturn at the end of regulation cost us our shot at an overtime win, but playing from behind is not how I envisioned this play going.

Loss – Raiders +3 – I’ll just be honest here, this was a bad play on my part and I have to own it. I expected Allen to take a step back and he simply didn’t in the 30-23 win. No excuse for writing this one up and my apologies for it.

I have some work to do as the 0-5 week brings us to a brutal 7-13 on the season. We begin the climb back this NFL week 5.

TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.