• Thu
    Jun 17
  • 12:00 am
    NYI
    TBL
    118
    -139
  • Wed
    Jun 16
  • 11:30 pm
    PHI
    ATL
    -278
    230
  • Tue
    Jun 15
  • FINAL
    BKN
    MIL
    125
    -149
  • Mon
    Jun 14
  • FINAL
    VGK
    MTL
    -250
    200
  • FINAL
    ATL
    PHI
    120
    -145
  • Sun
    Jun 13
  • FINAL
    DEN
    PHX
    105
    -130
  • FINAL
    TBL
    NYI
    -189
    155
  • FINAL
    MIL
    BKN
    110
    -135
  • Fri
    Jun 11
  • FINAL
    DEN
    PHX
    -130
    105
  • FINAL
    ATL
    PHI
    100
    -120
  • Thu
    Jun 10
  • FINAL
    UTA
    LAC
    -149
    125
  • FINAL
    VGK
    COL
    -114
    -103
  • Wed
    Jun 9
  • FINAL
    PHX
    DEN
    -278
    210
  • FINAL
    NYI
    BOS
    118
    -139
  • Tue
    Jun 8
  • FINAL
    UTA
    LAC
    -175
    145
  • FINAL
    COL
    VGK
    -145
    120
  • FINAL
    PHI
    ATL
    -179
    148
  • FINAL
    CAR
    TBL
    100
    -120
  • Mon
    Jun 7
  • FINAL
    PHX
    DEN
    -189
    155
  • FINAL
    BKN
    MIL
    -141
    116
  • FINAL
    BOS
    NYI
    -182
    155

Week 3 NFL Picks – Picks Against the Spread

September 24, 2020

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I can’t drive home enough how much injuries are impacting this season. I made a list last week of the skill position players that were already injured, and that list was *before* last week’s carnage that took out Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Davante Adams and a slew of others.

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We are just settling into the season now, but hoping this week doesn’t bring the same amount of injuries. Given the nature of this unique offseason, I would say player conditioning and team chemistry is now somewhere around the point of where it would be around the third or fourth preseason game in a normal season. We should see the injury rate settle down within 2-3 weeks and have a complete grasp on the ability of each team by then. We do have a good bit of information now, and the oddsmakers are starting to catch up.

We don’t see that many NFL games with totals in the mid 50s, but here we are this week with three of them. I was hoping for some errors on those games with totals set more in the normal range, but we don’t get to attack those. We do however get to attack three favorites that should absolutely roll on their opponents, and with favorable lines. We also get one over play that doesn’t have a line set nearly high enough.

We will get to those in a moment, but first lets run through how we did last week.

Win – Tamp Bay/Carolina Over 47.5
This one barely got home, but it did get home, and after as low of a scoring pace as we could have imagined in the first half. Carolina is a team that I will continue to hammer overs on, and hint hint, they might just pop up later in the piece.

Loss – Steelers -7
This one was a bummer, as Pittsburgh lead and covered most of the way in this game, but Denver was able to muster a back door cover with a fourth quarter touchdown. This game was not as close as the final score might suggest.

Loss – Cowboys -4.5
The Cowboys lost three fumbles early in the game, and conceded 26 points to the Falcons in the first half due to those turnovers. They faced a 26-7 deficit late in the second quarter, and it looked bleak. Things normalized after that point and the poorly coached Falcons allowed the Cowboys to come all the way back, and the Cowboys actually won the game. The issue was they won 40-39 and did not secure the cover. An unfortunate series of turnovers early in the game doomed this play.

Win – Minnesota/Indianapolis Under 48.5
This one was in great shape throughout, as the scoring pace was completely absent, with only three points in the first quarter and then just 18 points at the half. The Vikings offense was nothing short of pitiful and the 28-11 final was a comfortable win.

Win – Cardinals -7
This game was essentially decided in the first half. The Cardinals jumped out early and never looked back. They took a 20-0 lead into the locker room and comfortably cruised to a 30-15 win that was never in danger of losing the cover.

The 3-2 week brings us to 6-5 on the season.

Let’s get to this week’s four plays. If you’re a new Draft Kings user, they are running a fun promotion this week. You pick any NFL game, and a winning ticket returns $100 on a $1 wager. Take advantage of this! Go to DraftKings

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Betting Play: Steelers -4.5

1PM EST
Opening Line: Steelers -6 and 45
Current Line: Steelers -4 and 45

We kick off this week’s betting slate with a line movement that I simply can’t wrap my head around in any sense. The Texans are a paper tiger and it fairly apparent they won’t be anything resembling a playoff team in 2020. We could see it coming a mile away, but its almost like trading away the best wide receiver in the league for a washed running back was going to be a bad idea. Well, it was. They will be unable to run the ball, at all, against the nasty Steeler defense. They are also somewhat inadequate in the passing game as well, without, again, the best wide receiver in the league. This offense would be hard pressed to keep pace with the Steelers if the Steelers didn’t have a nasty defensive unit at all levels, but given the fact that they do, we are unlikely to see a close game here.

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers have been blessed with an absolute star at wide receiver, and it isn’t Juju Smith-Schuester. That man is Diontae Johnson, and from my vantage point, he is already one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. He will continue to be uncoverable and the team will continue to send volume his way and keep the scoreboard churning. The Texans have been lit up for 67 points by two high end offenses in the first two weeks, and we will see a continuation in week 3. There is no excuse for allowing this to be a one score line, and we are taking the Steelers to roll in this one.

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Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings

Betting Play: Titans -2.5

1PM EST
Opening Line: Pickem and 45.5
Current Line: Titans -2.5 and 49.5

If you followed this column last year, it probably read something like a Ryan Tannehill fan account on every given week. Well, that is going to continue, at least for now, as that man has simply balled out as the Titans have had some issues getting their running game going. Even if the Titans have struggles running the ball early on in this one, it seems a foregone conclusion they will be able to run it often later on in this one after Tanny gets the early point son the board.

The Vikings have the appearance of the one of, if not the absolute worst team in the league. Their offense is hapless, and even if they are able to get something going on that side of the ball, they have very real problems on defense. This young unit and secondary was already a question mark heading into the season, and have been blasted through two weeks. Now with key injuries in the front seven, they will be something of a turnstile. Despite teams like the Falcons and Panthers being so inept defensively, the Vikings are currently the best bet to allow the most points on the season. I cannot understate how much this defense is a disaster.

When oddsmakers drop the ball this badly and open a game like this at a pickem, there isn’t enough one sided money to move the line to a point where it should be set. At less than a field goal, the Titans are an absolute smash and have the feel of a blowout winner.

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