NFL Week 15 Prop Betting Picks
20 December 2020
We have another week and more of the same on running back props. These running back roles are the most projectable and we have a very high amount of success over the past couple of weeks of NFL Picks, including a perfect 5-0 last week. We also have one wide receiver with a bankable volume role on which we will have a pair of plays. Let’s get to them.
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Jonathan Taylor
Taylor has been handed the keys to the Indy backfield and he has not disappointed. In his last three games, he has been given 55 carries and taken those for 331 yards, good for a 6.0 yards per carry average. Included in that grouping was the Colts previous matchup against the rushing defense anemic Texans, who they play again this week. He averaged seven yards per carry in that matchup. In this three game stretch, he has not failed to hit 90 rushing yards in any game, yet his rushing prop is set just 72.5 yards. This is the type of prop play that just plays itself and we won’t overthink it. Take the over.
Betting Play: Over 72.5 rushing yards
Kenyan Drake
Drake enters a matchup with Philly that isn’t Houston level easy, but it is a favorable one. Drake will be buoyed by an either absent or limited Chase Edmonds, and a likely favorable game script for rushing volume. Drake has gained at least 60 rushing yards in all eight games in which he received at least 15 carries, and this game projects to be another such game. With his rushing prop set at 53.5 yards, we truly don’t even need the top half of his range of outcomes to come to fruition for this over to hit. This is an absolute smash over if Edmonds sits out, but is a strong play even if Edmonds is active. Another easy over.
Betting Play: Over 53.5 rushing yards.
Nick Chubb
Another week brings another full refusal to properly adjust Chubb’s rushing prop line. This week sees his rushing prop at 78.5 yards. The problem with this line, as has been for the essentially the entirety of the season, is Chubb has at least 80 rushing yards in every single game he finished since week 1. While the matchup with the Giants is not an easy one for Chubb, the state of the Giants offense should bring plenty of opportunity for Chubb, particularly late in the game. The Giants will be starting Colt McCoy at quarterback, and he will be leading an already anemic offense as a whole. It is simply unlikely they can keep a scoring pace with the Browns, and that will allow the Browns to control the game late with Chubb. While Chubb has not been a game script dependent player, a favorable game script certainly can’t hurt matters. Take Chubb to continue what he has done literally all year long, and that’s the over.
Betting Play: Over 78.5 rushing yards.
Brandon Aiyuk
Aiyuk is still flying under the radar to some degree, but his volume and production has simply become impossible to ignore. Aiyuk has missed some games, but he won’t be missing this one and has seen at least nine targets in each of the last four games he’s played in. In that span he averages 7.5 receptions per game for 95 receiving yards per game. In addition, if we go back five games, Aiyuk had six catches for 115 yards on seven targets. This is only slightly arguably the easiest matchup of any in that span, and with the absence of Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk will certainly continue to operate as the alpha option on offense. With his reception prop set at 5.5 and his yardage prop set at 74.5, we will take the over on both.
Betting Plays: Over 5.5 receptions and over 74.5 receiving yards
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TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.
