Menu

Week 14 NFL Picks – Picks and Predictions by TJ Calkins

11 December 2020

TJ Calkins NFL Picks and Predictions

Thanks for stopping back for the NFL Picks of Week 14. We now have clear site of playoff races in both conferences and can somewhat comfortably separate contenders from pretenders. I also have to offer apologies for the review piece from NFL Week 13 not coming out. When games are scheduled past Monday, it tightens the week up considerably. We can run through those right now.

Quick Links

Wins – Colts -3.5 and Saints -3.5
While neither of these games produced blowout final scores, neither team was lacking a cover any time after the first quarter of their respective games. Neither cover came with style but both soundly got the job done.

Losses – Bears -3 and Cowboys +8.5
The Bears put on one helluva choke job against the Lions. They held a 10 point lead at three different points in the game, including with 11 minutes left, and that margin of lead held until the 2:24 mark remaining in the game. Yes the Bears allowed two scores in that last two and a half minutes to blow the cover and then then push as well. The Cowboys were undone by their idiot kicker missing three field goals, after playing quite competitively.

The 2-2 week brings us to 25-30-2 on the season.

Our prop plays had an explosion last week. Those went 7-1 with the only loss being due to the early Antonio Gibson injury, from which he did not return.

The 7-1 week brings us to 34-27 on the season.

Let’s get to this week’s plays.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

1PM EST
Opening Line: Titans -9.5 and 53.5
Current Line: Titans -7.5 and 52

The Titans go on the road for what *should* be an easy win against the Jaguars, but the Titans defense does not allow thing to come easy for them this season.

They are 4-1 on the road this season, and we have seen this happen in their home games as well, the offense is often forced to win in shootouts because the defense allows essentially everyone to score on them. Since week 1, road opponents are averaging 28 points per contest, and clearly the scoring of the Titans is keeping pace, given the 4-1 mark.

The Titans are averaging 35 points in those games. While the Jaguars season is over and considering they have not gotten a win since week 1, it should be noted the offense keeps trudging along and keeping points on the scoreboard. They have scored at least 20 points in five of their last six games and have kept four of those contests within one score.

What this means is we likely see Tennessee have to force that same scoring pace that they are accustomed to needing on the road. The Jags resiliency gets a good spot, as the Titans have allowed at least 24 points in each of their last four games and are allowing 31 per game in that span.

While I initially thought I would lean the Titans way before diving into this game, the over is absolutely the best point of attack. The Titans still may cover, but the Jaguars are still going to put up a fight on offense. Less so on defense, only the Cowboys and Lions have allowed more points this year. Take the over.

Betting Play: Over 52

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

StateSportsbookLink & Promo Code
New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet Now
SPORTSBONUS500
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet Now
250MATCH
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
IllinoisPointsBet square logoBet Now
USSB
TennesseeBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
MichiganBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
IowaPointsBet square logoBet Now
USSB

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

1PM EST
Opening Line: Cardinals -3 and and 45.5
Current Line: Cardinals -3 and 45

Like two ships passing in the night, these two teams are on completely diverging trajectories, and just a month ago, the Cardinals would likely have been double digit favorites in this matchup.

As Kyler Murray’s output has decreased, so has that of the Cardinals wins. Murray has been average at best as a passer, and when he has been taken away as a runner, the team suffers. They have lost three straight and four of five. They are now essentially out of the divisional race and are just clinging to wild card hopes when it comes to the playoffs.

The Giants on the other hand, after a 1-7 start, have won four straight and now sit atop the NFC East at 5-7 and would have a home playoff game if the playoffs started today. The Giants defense has been quietly good all season, but they have turned it up a notch in recent weeks.

They allowed 20 points just once on the win streak and opponents are averaging just 16.5 points per game. They should also have Daniel Jones back under center for an offense that has gained competence after an abysmal start to the season. I mentioned the struggles of Murray and the Cardinals, and it should be noted the only win in their last five games came on the play of the year by Deandre Hopkins, bringing down the hail mary to beat the Bills.

Combine the Cardinals struggles with an east coast trip for an early start time in cold weather against a streaking team, and we have the recipe for more of the same. If I were setting this line I would favor the Giants, and think we have to take the value of the underdogs here.

Betting Play: Giants +3

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

StateSportsbookLink & Promo Code
New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet Now
SPORTSBONUS500
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet Now
250MATCH
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
IllinoisPointsBet square logoBet Now
USSB
TennesseeBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
MichiganBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
IowaPointsBet square logoBet Now
USSB

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears

1PM EST
Opening Line: Texans -1.5 and 45.5
Current Line: Texans -1.5 and 45.5

There are a few key factors that will decide this matchup, but let me start by saying I think we have another game in which the incorrect team is favored. Last week we got a glimpse of what life after Will Fuller looks like for the rest of the season.

That is prominent roles on offense for the likes of Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen. The result was just 20 points scored on offense and another easy loss. We have also seen the Texans play a game in cold weather elements already this season, and it was with Fuller but it still was not pretty for the offense. They mustered just seven points in Cleveland in a game that had considerable wind.

They now travel to the windy city to face a team that has finally unlocked their running back, David Montgomery’s skill set. He has been pivotal to the offense in recent weeks and has produced admirably. He now gets this mouth watering matchup with a Texans team that allows backs to absolutely feast and should be in for another massive game.

The Bears will keep doing what they’ve been doing, running the offense through Montgomery and racking up points, against an even softer opponent. On the other side of the ball, the Texans simply do not run the ball well and Watson will have a skeleton crew of pass catchers in a road game that will have a temperature around freezing. In essentially a pick em spot and with the Bears not being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, taking them for a win here is quite prudent.

Betting Play: Bears +1.5

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

StateSportsbookLink & Promo Code
New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet Now
SPORTSBONUS500
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet Now
250MATCH
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
IllinoisPointsBet square logoBet Now
USSB
TennesseeBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
MichiganBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
IowaPointsBet square logoBet Now
USSB

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

4:25PM EST
Opening Line: Saints -6.5 and 45.5
Current Line: Saints -6.5 and 43

The unmitigated disaster that is the Philadelphia Eagles in 2020 cannot be understated. They have been poorly coached, but that is not the only problem here. They have a patch work offensive line that is utterly awful, they are unable to run the ball, they have had poor wide receiver play and have had their play calling often call for long developing route concepts that puts their quarterback in the line of fire.

They have now benched Carson Wentz for Jalen Hurts, and I believe that only hurts the situation, no pun intended. Carson Wentz was clearly struggling and he was certainly not playing at his peak, but the majority of the blame should not be on him. All the reasons mentioned above contributed to the team arriving at its current state.

Now, I understand they want to learn what the currently have in Jalen Hurts against a live fire opponent, but this matchup is truly a terrible one to make that choice against. The Saints pass rush and defense overall has been fantastic, and they will be in the face of Hurts all afternoon. Hurts turned over once in limited action last week, and I think we could easily see a three or four turnover game out of him. Trust me, the Saints entire defensive unit is licking their chops right now.

On the other side of the ball, Taysom Hill has been everything I expected him to be under center. He is 3-0 in his starts and has been a high quality dual threat that has fed Michael Thomas and consistently kept the offense moving. It is notable Brees often had problems connecting with Thomas before his injury, and Hill has kept his usage and production up.

The Saints point margin in Hill’s three starts is +48, and while the Denver game is an outlier that inflates that figure, they have been as good as or better than the version with Brees under center. Now enter this Philly matchup, whose overall numbers are not horrific, but when sorting by quality of offensive opponent, it paints a totally different picture. In games against what I would label quality offenses, they have allowed 37, 38, 30, 22, 23 and 30 points. That averages out to 30 points per game. In all other games they allow 21 points per game.

So while everyone scores on them at some level, the better teams have large output days. That will continue this week and I think we see a pretty lopsided blowout, and it is quite attractive to lay less than a touchdown with the Saints.

Betting Play: Saints -6.5

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

StateSportsbookLink & Promo Code
New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet Now
SPORTSBONUS500
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet Now
250MATCH
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
IllinoisPointsBet square logoBet Now
USSB
TennesseeBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
MichiganBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
IowaPointsBet square logoBet Now
USSB

***Last second added wager***

With Julio jones being ruled out combined with the road game for Matt Ryan and his historic struggles without Jones, we will hold our nose and bet on an Anthony Lynn coached team. 

Betting Play: Chargers +2

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

StateSportsbookLink & Promo Code
New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet Now
SPORTSBONUS500
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet Now
250MATCH
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
IllinoisPointsBet square logoBet Now
USSB
TennesseeBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
MichiganBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet Now
USSB500
IowaPointsBet square logoBet Now
USSB

Other Game Predictions

Packers win and cover at Lions, over

Cowboys win and cover at Bengals, over

Panthers win and cover against Broncos, over

Bucs win but no cover against Vikings, over

Chiefs win and cover at Dolphins, over

Colts win and cover at Raiders, under

Seahawks win but cover against Jets, under

Chargers win as home underdogs against Falcons, over

49ers win and cover against Football Team, under

Be sure to check back this weekend for prop plays, those have been cooking. Also check back for a Monday Night play in a pivotal AFC North matchup.


NFL Predictions at USsportsbonus.com
NFL Week 14 – 2019

Week 13 lead us to a fairly long list of coaches that are highly probable to be fired, and we even had the first head roll as the Panthers parted ways with nine year head coach Ron Rivera on Tuesday. The remaining list of at least potential changes incudes Dallas, Washington, Cleveland, New York Jets, Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville and New York Giants. It wouldn’t be shocking at all to see firings from this list at any point this week or at any time between now and the start of the playoffs. We could see over a quarter of the league have coaching turnover.

Week 14 NFL Picks

For now, we only have one change to work around and the rest of the teams are status quo, and will proceed as if their respective coaching staffs will be intact for the week 14 games. Prime time this week gives us a couple of divisional matchups, with only the Sunday night resembling a high end matchup. Monday night could be a rough one on the eyes. Let’s get to the games.

🔥 Play Of The Week 🔥

Tennessee Titans 7-5 at Oakland Raiders 6-6

4:25PM EST

Opening Line: pickem and 46.5
Current Line: Titans -2.5 and 47

The Raiders have been a pretty predictive team so far this season, and I don’t see what would change at this point. They find success when they can run the ball and play in a neutral or positive game script. They fail to be able to run consistently and their passing offense isn’t one that can come from behind in negative game scripts. Predicting the early portion of Raider games is essentially predicting the outcome. The Titans are a difficult team to run on and their offense has become one of the more fun and balanced in the NFL with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. They are scoring 30 points per game with him under center and he has unlocked Derrick Henry on the ground. It seems unlikely the Raiders are able to create an early lead with the run and it also seems unlikely the Raiders will be able to slow the balanced Tennessee offense. Even if the Raiders are able to find a lead, the Titans are quite capable of mounting a comeback, while the Raiders are far less equipped in a reverse scenario. It makes perfect sense that this particular line was moved 2.5 points quickly and it very well could move much more over the course of the week. The Titans will keep it rolling with a win in Oakland.

Betting Pick: Titans -2.5
SugarHouse Sportsbook and Casino logo
Promo code: USBONUS
Bet at SugarHouse and get a $250 BONUS

San Francisco 49ers 10-2 at New Orleans Saints 10-2

1PM EST

Opening Line: Saints -3 and 45.5
Current Line: Saints -3 and 44

The 49ers played the Ravens extremely tough on the road and now get another 10-2 opponent as they are into the meat of their schedule. The Saints had an easy enough road win at Atlanta on Thanksgiving, but the eye test is showing them to be a bit less than their record would suggest. Their last roughly month and a half has been exclusively matchups with subpar teams and they do look beatable. It’s a bit painful to say, as he’s a great person and an all time great quarterback, but age is catching up with Drew Brees. He is now either unwilling or unable to throw the deep ball and that limitation can be truly exploited by the high end 49er secondary. The Saints run game has been quite ordinary and it is not something they can lean on should the passing attack fail them. The 49ers on the other hand are quite balanced and are as healthy on offense as they have been in recent weeks and should have steady if not huge scoring output in this one. I think the 49er defense will give Brees and company more than they can handle and any 49er lead won’t be relinquished. Take 49ers +3 and they are in play on the money line as well.

Betting Pick: 49ers +3
SugarHouse Sportsbook and Casino logo
Promo code: USBONUS
Bet at SugarHouse and get a $250 BONUS

Cincinnati Bengals 1-11 at Cleveland Browns 5-7

1PM EST

Opening Line: Browns -10.5 and 43
Current Line: Browns -8.5 and 40.5

The Bengals got their first win of the year last week against a bumbling Jets squad while the Browns were complacent in blowing a 10 point lead at Pittsburgh. The Bengals remain one of the league’s worst teams and the opening line was correct. The Browns on the other hand remain longer on ability than their record would suggest, but they seem to be a team with an entitled attitude. They certainly have lacked motivation and execution in multiple games this year and that stems from the top down. Freddie Kitchens is certainly a candidate to be replaced and losing this game would likely earn the pink slip on the spot. The Browns, without Myles Garrett, allowed the skeleton crew called the Steeler offense put up 20 points on them and they will allow some degree of scoring to every team they face. The Duck Hodges lead Steelers are about bottom of the barrel as far as offensive ability is concerned. Luckily for the Browns, they should be able to score at will in this matchup and Nick Chubb is likely in for quite a day. This is a favorite or pass spot as far as the sides go, but the best play in the game is certainly the over when it is set so low. The Browns are in play but not a must play but the over is the way to go.

Betting Pick: Over 40.5
SugarHouse Sportsbook and Casino logo
Promo code: USBONUS
Bet at SugarHouse and get a $250 BONUS

Carolina Panthers 5-7 at Atlanta Falcons 3-9

1PM EST

Opening Line: Falcons -1 and 48.5
Current Line: Falcons -3 and 48

As touched on in the intro, the Panthers have let long tenured Ron Rivera go, and Perry Fewell will operate in an interim capacity. After a loss to the Redskins, the motivation level literally can’t get any lower and we can expect some level of competitiveness from the team. They still have two insanely high end skill position players in place in Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore and with that, will be able to move the ball in any matchup. Speaking of high end skill position players, the Falcons get tight end Austin Hooper back this week, a player who has been sorely missed in the passing game. Neither of these defenses are any good and we could get a track meet in the dome with a total under 50. The over is quite a sound play and if you need to take a side, it’s the Panthers and the points. I see it as dog or pass here and I’m passing and just going with the over.

Betting Pick: Over 48
SugarHouse Sportsbook and Casino logo
Promo code: USBONUS
Bet at SugarHouse and get a $250 BONUS

Miami Dolphins 3-9 at New York Jets 4-8

1PM EST

Opening Line: Jets -7.5 and 44
Current Line: Jets -5.5 and 45

I’m really curious whose idea it was to open the Jets as over a touchdown favorite against anyone at all. The mustered just six points against a winless team last week. That wouldn’t be so damning if it weren’t week 13. They did have the recent good showings in the run of good matchups, but a competent passing game is what gives them problems, and Ryan Fitzpatrick and Devante Parker have formed a sound connection in Miami. The passing game there has been plenty to keep them competitive and they got a win over a divisional contender in the Eagles last week. The passing game will once again keep them in the game as their woeful defense surrenders points to whoever they play. The wide receivers for both teams are in really nice spots and it should create a decent amount of scoring in a competitive game. Both the underdog and over are very attractive here.

Betting Pick:
Dolphins
+5.5
Over 45

SugarHouse Sportsbook and Casino logo
Promo code: USBONUS
Bet at SugarHouse and get a $250 BONUS

Los Angeles Chargers 4-8 at Jacksonville Jaguars 4-8

4:05PM EST

Opening Line: Chargers -1 and 44.5
Current Line: Chargers -3 and 43

There are so many similarities between these teams, it is really almost laughable that they are matched up at this juncture. Both have quarterback issues where the incumbent is likely done with the team in 2020. Both likely have a new head coach by 2020. Both are 4-8 and both have a running back in place that should be carrying their respective offenses, but their teams go away from them in critical spots. The difference between them, at least for me, is that Phillip Rivers just finds ways to make sure the Chargers lose late in games. With this being the case, I was shocked to see this line bet towards the Chargers, particularly playing on the east coast. DJ Chark should have his way with the Chargers, much the way Courtland Sutton did last week, and Gardner Minshew should keep turnovers to a minimum, unlike Foles in his benching last week. I meant what I said in the week in review piece. Every Charger game is the same. We will have a one score game with a minute left that the Jags will win. Take the dog here.

Betting Pick: Jaguars +3
SugarHouse Sportsbook and Casino logo
Promo code: USBONUS
Bet at SugarHouse and get a $250 BONUS

Tennessee Titans 7-5 at Oakland Raiders 6-6

4:25PM EST

Opening Line: pickem and 46.5′
Current Line: Titans -2.5 and 47

The Raiders have been a pretty predictive team so far this season, and I don’t see what would change at this point. They find success when they can run the ball and play in a neutral or positive game script. They fail to be able to run consistently and their passing offense isn’t one that can come from behind in negative game scripts. Predicting the early portion of Raider games is essentially predicting the outcome. The Titans are a difficult team to run on and their offense has become one of the more fun and balanced in the NFL with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. They are scoring 30 points per game with him under center and he has unlocked Derrick Henry on the ground. It seems unlikely the Raiders are able to create an early lead with the run and it also seems unlikely the Raiders will be able to slow the balanced Tennessee offense. Even if the Raiders are able to find a lead, the Titans are quite capable of mounting a comeback, while the Raiders are far less equipped in a reverse scenario. It makes perfect sense that this particular line was moved 2.5 points quickly and it very well could move much more over the course of the week. The Titans will keep it rolling with a win in Oakland.

Betting Pick: Titans -2.5
SugarHouse Sportsbook and Casino logo
Promo code: USBONUS
Bet at SugarHouse and get a $250 BONUS

Seattle Seahawks 10-2 at Los Angeles Rams 7-5

8:15PM EST

Opening Line: Seahawks -3 and 46.5
Current Line: Seahawks -1 and 48

This line movement is very much a head scratcher as the Rams are much less than their winning record would suggest. Jared Goff has truly regressed and one solid game against the Cardinals passing defense last week does not change that fact. With all the grief I give the Seattle offensive coaching brain trust, they called their best game of the season last week in a win against the Vikings. They have also gotten highly talented first round back Rashaad Penny involved on offense and he has rewarded them with a complete skill set that just chew up yardage. The fact of the matter is the Seahawks are a superior team at this juncture. That has more to do with the Rams than it does with the Seahawks but there is a very real gap between these two teams. If Goff doesn’t turn the ball over, this game will be close and I’ll be happy to have Russell Wilson on my side for crunch time. If there are turnovers, this could turn into a fairly easy win for the Seahawks.

Betting Pick: Seahawks -1
SugarHouse Sportsbook and Casino logo
Promo code: USBONUS
Bet at SugarHouse and get a $250 BONUS

Baltimore Ravens 10-2 at Buffalo Bills 9-3

1PM EST

Opening Line: Ravens -7 and 43
Current Line: Ravens -5.5 and 43

The Ravens came away victorious in their toughest test of the season last week, getting a three point win hosing the 49ers at the end of regulation in a tight game that lived up to expectations. The Bills were impressive on Thanksgiving as well, beating Dallas fairly easily on the road. Both of these defensive units are high end and will give any offense difficulties, and the total reflects what to expect, even with two competent offenses in the same game. This can easily be considered a let down spot for the Ravens coming off a big home win and now traveling to face another high end team. The public seemed to have identified that possibility immediately and bet the line down a point and a half. That is somewhat unfortunate as the Bills getting a full touchdown was attractive, less so with the number falling below six. I view this as a dog or pass spot and would need the dog to be at +7 to make it a play, so we will pass.

No Plays

Washington Redskins 3-9 at Green Bay Packers 9-3

1PM EST

Opening Line: Packers -14.5 and 42
Current Line: Packers -13 and 42

The Redskins were able to secure an improbable win in Carolina last week. They were able to put 29 points up despite Dwayne Haskins throwing for just 147 yards. Needless to say this should not be considered a normal occurrence and it is at least highly questionable whether they can get the required boost from the passing game if called upon. The Packers secured a road win at the Giants in the snow and now return home to face another low level NFC (L)East foe. The Pack got the job done through the air against the Giants, and that has not been the case for them very often this season. This is another matchup where the pass will be more effective than the run and they will need to get some offense through the air if they’re to cover the large line. It’s a safe assumption that Green Bay wins this one, but they are a difficult team to trust as far as predicting a blow out, making this a game to stay away from.

No Plays

Denver Broncos 4-8 at Houston Texans 8-4

1PM EST

Opening Line: Texans -7 and 41.5
Current Line: Texans -9.5 and 41.5

The Broncos were gifted an unlikely win at home last week in rookie quarterback Drew Lock’s first career start. With the game virtually assured to hit overtime, they got a very cheap pass interference call to set up the game winning field goal. They were outplayed by the Chargers, but in true Charger fashion, the Broncos got the win. The Broncos remain a mostly low level team in terms of ability and are outmatched on the road in Houston. The Texans are coming off an impressive home win against the Patriots and will get another one here against the Broncos. The passing attack on offense isn’t one the Broncos will be able to keep pace with. The worry with the Texans, as usual, is they don’t often put teams away and the line has spiked to well over a touchdown. It is certainly a favorite or pass spot and I just don’t trust the Texans enough to cover in their won to make them a play. Pass on this one but you can play the Texans if you’re looking for more games to fire at.

No Plays

Detroit Lions 3-8-1 at Minnesota Vikings 8-4

1PM EST

Opening Line: Vikings -14 and 42.5
Current Line: Vikings -13 and 43.5

The health of the Vikings offense is a big question mark heading into this one. Stud running back Dalvin Cook was banged up on Monday night and top wide receiver Adam Thielen has missed multiple games with a hamstring injury. Also working against them is once elite corner Xavier Rhodes fall from grace and current inability in coverage. They get a Lions team lead by David Blough making his second career start after being thrust into action due to injuries to Driskell and Stafford. Blough showed an ability to get the ball to his high end wide receivers in an admirable debut on Thanksgiving, and the offense won’t be fully helpless wit him. The Detroit defense however, remains mostly inept and a beatable unit. Even with the health issues for the Vikings, they should have no real problems winning the game outright but a cover is a huge question mark and the line is larger than I imagined it would be. This is a game to stay away from.

No Plays

Indianpolis Colts 6-6 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-7

1PM EST

Opening Line: Buccaneers -1 and 50.5
Current Line: Buccaneers -3 and 47.5

The Colts keep losing skill position players on offense. While Marlon Mack is expected back this week, it’s the pass catchers they are without that is most concerning. Mack helps but not so significantly in this matchup, as the Buccaneers remain a pass funnel defense and running backs are not the key to scoring on them. Parris Campbell and Devin Funchess were previously lost to IR. TY Hilton remains banged up, Eric Ebron went to IR, he’s now joined by Chester Rogers and Deon Cain was inexplicably released. In order to keep pace with the Bucs, players like Zach Pascal, Jack Doyle and Marcus Johnson will have to make some plays. The good news is that if anyone in the league can allow plays to those players, it’s the Bucs. The Bucs passing attack will be potent as usual, with the variable being turnovers. With the tight line and the Bucs favored, I don’t was to play roulette in this one on whether the Colts passing game can get anything done, no matter how good the matchup might be. This is one to stay away from.

No plays

Pittsburgh Steelers 7-5 at Arizona Cardinals 3-8-1

4:25PM EST

Opening Line: Pickem and 43.5
Current Line: Steelers -2.5 and 43.5

This is probably the toughest game on the weekend slate to get a true read on. The betting public certainly likes the Steelers as the moved the line 2.5 points quite quickly, but I just cannot reach that conclusion. Even if Juju Smith-Schuster and James Conner return to the lineup on offense for the Steelers, there is still real limitation with Duck Hodges under center. The defense in Pittsburgh is still high end, but they’ve made more difference making plays in home games than they have on the road. The Cardinals defense remains mediocre and are exploitable by the pass, particularly to the tight end position, so don’t be surprised if Vance McDonald has his best game of the season. We can be fairly certain the Pittsburg offense scores in the 17-24 range, but the variable will be the Cardinal offense and whether they can score. They have had instances this year that would land on both ends of the spectrum, and for that reason this is a game to stay far away from.

No Plays

New York Giants 2-10 at Philadelphia Eagles 5-7

8:20PM EST, Monday Night

Opening Line: Eagles -8 and 46.5
Current Line: Eagles -8.5 and 47

The Eagles have been a fairly maddening team from a predictive standpoint this season. They started the year with the offense playing sound ball but the passing defense being a sieve, leading to losses. The secondary then got healthier and they played competitive low scoring games while the banged up offense struggled. Then last week rolled around and the offense bounced back but the defense reverted to getting scorched and they lost in Miami. My best guess is the secondary bounces back in this one against Daniel Jones, but not confident to lay more than a touchdown. The Eagles passing offense should be in for another good week as the Giants are quite exploitable there. The Eagle defensive front remains stout and they are one of the most difficult teams to run on, so the outcome here will likely be decided by the ability of the Giants passing offense to beat a Jekyll and Hyde matchup. This is a favorite or pass spot for me and I’m content to sit out rather than stab at which version of the Eagles back end will show up.

No Plays

NBA Betting with TJ CalkinsTJ Calkins – NFL Expert

TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today. 

 

Best Sportsbooks for NFL

NFL Expert Picks

Want to get the latest news and exclusive offers?

Sign up for our newsletter now!