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Week 14 NFL Picks – TJ Calkins Weekly

04 December 2019

Last updated: 23 March 2020 at 3:25 am

NFL Betting Picks

Week 13 lead us to a fairly long list of coaches that are highly probable to be fired, and we even had the first head roll as the Panthers parted ways with nine year head coach Ron Rivera on Tuesday. The remaining list of at least potential changes incudes Dallas, Washington, Cleveland, New York Jets, Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville and New York Giants. It wouldn’t be shocking at all to see firings from this list at any point this week or at any time between now and the start of the playoffs. We could see over a quarter of the league have coaching turnover.

Week 14 NFL Picks

For now, we only have one change to work around and the rest of the teams are status quo, and will proceed as if their respective coaching staffs will be intact for the week 14 games. Prime time this week gives us a couple of divisional matchups, with only the Sunday night resembling a high end matchup. Monday night could be a rough one on the eyes. Let’s get to the games.

🔥 Play Of The Week 🔥

Tennessee Titans 7-5 at Oakland Raiders 6-6

4:25PM EST

Opening Line: pickem and 46.5
Current Line: Titans -2.5 and 47

The Raiders have been a pretty predictive team so far this season, and I don’t see what would change at this point. They find success when they can run the ball and play in a neutral or positive game script. They fail to be able to run consistently and their passing offense isn’t one that can come from behind in negative game scripts. Predicting the early portion of Raider games is essentially predicting the outcome. The Titans are a difficult team to run on and their offense has become one of the more fun and balanced in the NFL with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. They are scoring 30 points per game with him under center and he has unlocked Derrick Henry on the ground. It seems unlikely the Raiders are able to create an early lead with the run and it also seems unlikely the Raiders will be able to slow the balanced Tennessee offense. Even if the Raiders are able to find a lead, the Titans are quite capable of mounting a comeback, while the Raiders are far less equipped in a reverse scenario. It makes perfect sense that this particular line was moved 2.5 points quickly and it very well could move much more over the course of the week. The Titans will keep it rolling with a win in Oakland.

Betting Pick: Titans -2.5
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San Francisco 49ers 10-2 at New Orleans Saints 10-2

1PM EST

Opening Line: Saints -3 and 45.5
Current Line: Saints -3 and 44

The 49ers played the Ravens extremely tough on the road and now get another 10-2 opponent as they are into the meat of their schedule. The Saints had an easy enough road win at Atlanta on Thanksgiving, but the eye test is showing them to be a bit less than their record would suggest. Their last roughly month and a half has been exclusively matchups with subpar teams and they do look beatable. It’s a bit painful to say, as he’s a great person and an all time great quarterback, but age is catching up with Drew Brees. He is now either unwilling or unable to throw the deep ball and that limitation can be truly exploited by the high end 49er secondary. The Saints run game has been quite ordinary and it is not something they can lean on should the passing attack fail them. The 49ers on the other hand are quite balanced and are as healthy on offense as they have been in recent weeks and should have steady if not huge scoring output in this one. I think the 49er defense will give Brees and company more than they can handle and any 49er lead won’t be relinquished. Take 49ers +3 and they are in play on the money line as well.

Betting Pick: 49ers +3
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Cincinnati Bengals 1-11 at Cleveland Browns 5-7

1PM EST

Opening Line: Browns -10.5 and 43
Current Line: Browns -8.5 and 40.5

The Bengals got their first win of the year last week against a bumbling Jets squad while the Browns were complacent in blowing a 10 point lead at Pittsburgh. The Bengals remain one of the league’s worst teams and the opening line was correct. The Browns on the other hand remain longer on ability than their record would suggest, but they seem to be a team with an entitled attitude. They certainly have lacked motivation and execution in multiple games this year and that stems from the top down. Freddie Kitchens is certainly a candidate to be replaced and losing this game would likely earn the pink slip on the spot. The Browns, without Myles Garrett, allowed the skeleton crew called the Steeler offense put up 20 points on them and they will allow some degree of scoring to every team they face. The Duck Hodges lead Steelers are about bottom of the barrel as far as offensive ability is concerned. Luckily for the Browns, they should be able to score at will in this matchup and Nick Chubb is likely in for quite a day. This is a favorite or pass spot as far as the sides go, but the best play in the game is certainly the over when it is set so low. The Browns are in play but not a must play but the over is the way to go.

Betting Pick: Over 40.5
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Carolina Panthers 5-7 at Atlanta Falcons 3-9

1PM EST

Opening Line: Falcons -1 and 48.5
Current Line: Falcons -3 and 48

As touched on in the intro, the Panthers have let long tenured Ron Rivera go, and Perry Fewell will operate in an interim capacity. After a loss to the Redskins, the motivation level literally can’t get any lower and we can expect some level of competitiveness from the team. They still have two insanely high end skill position players in place in Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore and with that, will be able to move the ball in any matchup. Speaking of high end skill position players, the Falcons get tight end Austin Hooper back this week, a player who has been sorely missed in the passing game. Neither of these defenses are any good and we could get a track meet in the dome with a total under 50. The over is quite a sound play and if you need to take a side, it’s the Panthers and the points. I see it as dog or pass here and I’m passing and just going with the over.

Betting Pick: Over 48
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Miami Dolphins 3-9 at New York Jets 4-8

1PM EST

Opening Line: Jets -7.5 and 44
Current Line: Jets -5.5 and 45

I’m really curious whose idea it was to open the Jets as over a touchdown favorite against anyone at all. The mustered just six points against a winless team last week. That wouldn’t be so damning if it weren’t week 13. They did have the recent good showings in the run of good matchups, but a competent passing game is what gives them problems, and Ryan Fitzpatrick and Devante Parker have formed a sound connection in Miami. The passing game there has been plenty to keep them competitive and they got a win over a divisional contender in the Eagles last week. The passing game will once again keep them in the game as their woeful defense surrenders points to whoever they play. The wide receivers for both teams are in really nice spots and it should create a decent amount of scoring in a competitive game. Both the underdog and over are very attractive here.

Betting Pick:
Dolphins
+5.5
Over 45

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Los Angeles Chargers 4-8 at Jacksonville Jaguars 4-8

4:05PM EST

Opening Line: Chargers -1 and 44.5
Current Line: Chargers -3 and 43

There are so many similarities between these teams, it is really almost laughable that they are matched up at this juncture. Both have quarterback issues where the incumbent is likely done with the team in 2020. Both likely have a new head coach by 2020. Both are 4-8 and both have a running back in place that should be carrying their respective offenses, but their teams go away from them in critical spots. The difference between them, at least for me, is that Phillip Rivers just finds ways to make sure the Chargers lose late in games. With this being the case, I was shocked to see this line bet towards the Chargers, particularly playing on the east coast. DJ Chark should have his way with the Chargers, much the way Courtland Sutton did last week, and Gardner Minshew should keep turnovers to a minimum, unlike Foles in his benching last week. I meant what I said in the week in review piece. Every Charger game is the same. We will have a one score game with a minute left that the Jags will win. Take the dog here.

Betting Pick: Jaguars +3
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Tennessee Titans 7-5 at Oakland Raiders 6-6

4:25PM EST

Opening Line: pickem and 46.5′
Current Line: Titans -2.5 and 47

The Raiders have been a pretty predictive team so far this season, and I don’t see what would change at this point. They find success when they can run the ball and play in a neutral or positive game script. They fail to be able to run consistently and their passing offense isn’t one that can come from behind in negative game scripts. Predicting the early portion of Raider games is essentially predicting the outcome. The Titans are a difficult team to run on and their offense has become one of the more fun and balanced in the NFL with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. They are scoring 30 points per game with him under center and he has unlocked Derrick Henry on the ground. It seems unlikely the Raiders are able to create an early lead with the run and it also seems unlikely the Raiders will be able to slow the balanced Tennessee offense. Even if the Raiders are able to find a lead, the Titans are quite capable of mounting a comeback, while the Raiders are far less equipped in a reverse scenario. It makes perfect sense that this particular line was moved 2.5 points quickly and it very well could move much more over the course of the week. The Titans will keep it rolling with a win in Oakland.

Betting Pick: Titans -2.5
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Seattle Seahawks 10-2 at Los Angeles Rams 7-5

8:15PM EST

Opening Line: Seahawks -3 and 46.5
Current Line: Seahawks -1 and 48

This line movement is very much a head scratcher as the Rams are much less than their winning record would suggest. Jared Goff has truly regressed and one solid game against the Cardinals passing defense last week does not change that fact. With all the grief I give the Seattle offensive coaching brain trust, they called their best game of the season last week in a win against the Vikings. They have also gotten highly talented first round back Rashaad Penny involved on offense and he has rewarded them with a complete skill set that just chew up yardage. The fact of the matter is the Seahawks are a superior team at this juncture. That has more to do with the Rams than it does with the Seahawks but there is a very real gap between these two teams. If Goff doesn’t turn the ball over, this game will be close and I’ll be happy to have Russell Wilson on my side for crunch time. If there are turnovers, this could turn into a fairly easy win for the Seahawks.

Betting Pick: Seahawks -1
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Baltimore Ravens 10-2 at Buffalo Bills 9-3

1PM EST

Opening Line: Ravens -7 and 43
Current Line: Ravens -5.5 and 43

The Ravens came away victorious in their toughest test of the season last week, getting a three point win hosing the 49ers at the end of regulation in a tight game that lived up to expectations. The Bills were impressive on Thanksgiving as well, beating Dallas fairly easily on the road. Both of these defensive units are high end and will give any offense difficulties, and the total reflects what to expect, even with two competent offenses in the same game. This can easily be considered a let down spot for the Ravens coming off a big home win and now traveling to face another high end team. The public seemed to have identified that possibility immediately and bet the line down a point and a half. That is somewhat unfortunate as the Bills getting a full touchdown was attractive, less so with the number falling below six. I view this as a dog or pass spot and would need the dog to be at +7 to make it a play, so we will pass.

No Plays

Washington Redskins 3-9 at Green Bay Packers 9-3

1PM EST

Opening Line: Packers -14.5 and 42
Current Line: Packers -13 and 42

The Redskins were able to secure an improbable win in Carolina last week. They were able to put 29 points up despite Dwayne Haskins throwing for just 147 yards. Needless to say this should not be considered a normal occurrence and it is at least highly questionable whether they can get the required boost from the passing game if called upon. The Packers secured a road win at the Giants in the snow and now return home to face another low level NFC (L)East foe. The Pack got the job done through the air against the Giants, and that has not been the case for them very often this season. This is another matchup where the pass will be more effective than the run and they will need to get some offense through the air if they’re to cover the large line. It’s a safe assumption that Green Bay wins this one, but they are a difficult team to trust as far as predicting a blow out, making this a game to stay away from.

No Plays

Denver Broncos 4-8 at Houston Texans 8-4

1PM EST

Opening Line: Texans -7 and 41.5
Current Line: Texans -9.5 and 41.5

The Broncos were gifted an unlikely win at home last week in rookie quarterback Drew Lock’s first career start. With the game virtually assured to hit overtime, they got a very cheap pass interference call to set up the game winning field goal. They were outplayed by the Chargers, but in true Charger fashion, the Broncos got the win. The Broncos remain a mostly low level team in terms of ability and are outmatched on the road in Houston. The Texans are coming off an impressive home win against the Patriots and will get another one here against the Broncos. The passing attack on offense isn’t one the Broncos will be able to keep pace with. The worry with the Texans, as usual, is they don’t often put teams away and the line has spiked to well over a touchdown. It is certainly a favorite or pass spot and I just don’t trust the Texans enough to cover in their won to make them a play. Pass on this one but you can play the Texans if you’re looking for more games to fire at.

No Plays

Detroit Lions 3-8-1 at Minnesota Vikings 8-4

1PM EST

Opening Line: Vikings -14 and 42.5
Current Line: Vikings -13 and 43.5

The health of the Vikings offense is a big question mark heading into this one. Stud running back Dalvin Cook was banged up on Monday night and top wide receiver Adam Thielen has missed multiple games with a hamstring injury. Also working against them is once elite corner Xavier Rhodes fall from grace and current inability in coverage. They get a Lions team lead by David Blough making his second career start after being thrust into action due to injuries to Driskell and Stafford. Blough showed an ability to get the ball to his high end wide receivers in an admirable debut on Thanksgiving, and the offense won’t be fully helpless wit him. The Detroit defense however, remains mostly inept and a beatable unit. Even with the health issues for the Vikings, they should have no real problems winning the game outright but a cover is a huge question mark and the line is larger than I imagined it would be. This is a game to stay away from.

No Plays

Indianpolis Colts 6-6 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-7

1PM EST

Opening Line: Buccaneers -1 and 50.5
Current Line: Buccaneers -3 and 47.5

The Colts keep losing skill position players on offense. While Marlon Mack is expected back this week, it’s the pass catchers they are without that is most concerning. Mack helps but not so significantly in this matchup, as the Buccaneers remain a pass funnel defense and running backs are not the key to scoring on them. Parris Campbell and Devin Funchess were previously lost to IR. TY Hilton remains banged up, Eric Ebron went to IR, he’s now joined by Chester Rogers and Deon Cain was inexplicably released. In order to keep pace with the Bucs, players like Zach Pascal, Jack Doyle and Marcus Johnson will have to make some plays. The good news is that if anyone in the league can allow plays to those players, it’s the Bucs. The Bucs passing attack will be potent as usual, with the variable being turnovers. With the tight line and the Bucs favored, I don’t was to play roulette in this one on whether the Colts passing game can get anything done, no matter how good the matchup might be. This is one to stay away from.

No plays

Pittsburgh Steelers 7-5 at Arizona Cardinals 3-8-1

4:25PM EST

Opening Line: Pickem and 43.5
Current Line: Steelers -2.5 and 43.5

This is probably the toughest game on the weekend slate to get a true read on. The betting public certainly likes the Steelers as the moved the line 2.5 points quite quickly, but I just cannot reach that conclusion. Even if Juju Smith-Schuster and James Conner return to the lineup on offense for the Steelers, there is still real limitation with Duck Hodges under center. The defense in Pittsburgh is still high end, but they’ve made more difference making plays in home games than they have on the road. The Cardinals defense remains mediocre and are exploitable by the pass, particularly to the tight end position, so don’t be surprised if Vance McDonald has his best game of the season. We can be fairly certain the Pittsburg offense scores in the 17-24 range, but the variable will be the Cardinal offense and whether they can score. They have had instances this year that would land on both ends of the spectrum, and for that reason this is a game to stay far away from.

No Plays

New York Giants 2-10 at Philadelphia Eagles 5-7

8:20PM EST, Monday Night

Opening Line: Eagles -8 and 46.5
Current Line: Eagles -8.5 and 47

The Eagles have been a fairly maddening team from a predictive standpoint this season. They started the year with the offense playing sound ball but the passing defense being a sieve, leading to losses. The secondary then got healthier and they played competitive low scoring games while the banged up offense struggled. Then last week rolled around and the offense bounced back but the defense reverted to getting scorched and they lost in Miami. My best guess is the secondary bounces back in this one against Daniel Jones, but not confident to lay more than a touchdown. The Eagles passing offense should be in for another good week as the Giants are quite exploitable there. The Eagle defensive front remains stout and they are one of the most difficult teams to run on, so the outcome here will likely be decided by the ability of the Giants passing offense to beat a Jekyll and Hyde matchup. This is a favorite or pass spot for me and I’m content to sit out rather than stab at which version of the Eagles back end will show up.

No Plays

NBA Betting with TJ CalkinsTJ Calkins – NFL Expert

TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today. 

 

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