NFL Week 14 Prop Betting Plays

December 11, 2020

With a potentially slow week for many passing games on the horizon, I had a very difficult time pinpointing props for quarterbacks and wide receivers. With a lack of strong plays in those areas this week, we were down to two running backs.

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We will have three plays on those two players, and both have very juicy matchups that they should simply own in their respective games. Let’s get to them:

David Montgomery

Betting Plays: Over 67.5 rushing yards, Over 25.5 receiving yards

The Bears offense does not have many bright spots in 2020, but the steps forward in Montgomery’s play easily lead the list. The do everything back is being fed both carries and targets, and is rewarding the team with high end production for the trust.

He has seen at least three targets in every game this season, has seen fat least four targets in six of the last seven, and has seen at least five targets in five of the last seven. With that, he has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in three of his last four games and now gets his easiest matchup to date in the Texans.

The Texans are the premier target in the league as far as allowing running back production goes, and after consecutive high output games, this one is likely to be the best yet. Both his rushing and receiving props are set too low and not indicative of his role or this matchup, and we will take the over on both.

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Jonathan Taylor

Betting Play: Over 52.5 rushing yards. 

Whether he receives volume or not, the elite rookie rusher has been showing why he was hyped in fantasy football circles entering this season. He has been doing the heavy lifting on the ground of late, with consecutive 90+ rushing yard games.

With a rushing prop set at just 52.5 yards, he will only need about 10 carries to easily go over in this matchup. That 10 carries is a figure that will come regardless of game script. The matchup with Las Vegas is a favorable one, but not the pushover say the Texans are.

The Raiders are in a bucket in the bottom half of the league that allows consistent running back production, just not at the most ridiculous of rates. If Taylor’s prop line was set appropriately in the 70s or 80s, we would have a much harder time playing him, but the 52.5 is in the floor range of outcomes. It is certainly an over to attack.

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TJ
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.