NFL Week 11 Betting Review
24 November 2020
After breaking down this week’s matchups, I was gun shy and hesitant going into it, and the result showed for good reason. We had just three betting plays on the NFL Betting Plays and Predictions Week 11 to go with eight NFL Week 11 Prop Betting Plays.
We won our early play, but saw both of our late plays blow a lead and we even saw a shocking hook on a highly touted rookie quarterback. The prop plays went 4-4 as game script issues saw two teams, the Patriots and Dolphins, completely stop calling running plays after allowing their opponents the lead.
Hayden Hurst was a big bust for us as well, and that covered the prop play losses. Diontae Johnson continued to be easy money as his role has been consistent, but not accounted for by bookmakers. The same goes for Nick Chubb and Terry McLaurin, who were cashes for us. Let’s take a look at the game plays.
✅ Win – Saints -3.5
Once we knew Taysom Hill was going to be under center and the money kept rolling in on Atlanta, we saw the Saints become something of a must play. The Saints defense was in Ryan’s face all day and Hill was efficient and effective on the other side of the ball. THe 24-9 final does not reflect how large the gap was between these two teams on Sunday.
❌ Loss – Packers +2
This was as tilting of a loss as we ever get. The Packers held 14 point leads twice, 21-7 and 28-14, but let the Colts back in towards the end of the game. What the Colts did cleverly do is get their best offensive player, Jonathan Taylor going, and he rewarded them in a big way. Back to how the game played out. After blowing their lead and seeing the game head to overtime, Marquez Valdez-Scantling literally handed the game away, as he fumbled deep in Packer territory, giving the Colts an easy field goal set up and they won by that field goal.
❌ Loss – Dolphins -3.5
This was simply a flat Dolphin offense and Tua Tagovailoa certainly had his struggles. He was pulled in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick late in the game, but Fitz could not quite muster enough magic to pull this one off. The Dolphins lost 20-13 and an anemic offensive day was fully to blame, and the complete abandonment of the run was certainly not a help.
The 1-2 day brings us to 22-25-2 on the season. We went 4-4 on prop plays which brings us to 24-26 on the season.
NFL Week 11 Review – 2019
Break even result on the Week 11 NFL picks this time. Some good, some bad and some unfortunate. We keep moving and aim for a better week 12.
The Saints cruised to an easy bounce back win against the Saints, with the over also getting home as well. The over was a narrow cover but it would have looked better had James Winston not thrown his fourth pick of the day with a goal to go in garbage time. The Jets and Bills both rolled in wins with favorable lines and the Chiefs didn’t have much urgency to pull away from the Chargers, but did more than enough for a cover on Monday night.
I’m going to be long winded on the Panthers debacle, it was one of the more maddening games to watch. Kyle Allen was a red zone disaster for the Panthers and the score of the game is not truly indicative of how it played out. After a rough offensive start, a bad interception and an allowed punt return for a score, the Panthers were marching down the field only down 10-0. Allen inexplicably didn’t see a defender in the end zone and threw a score stealing pick which lead to a Falcon pick and then the ensuing pair of possessions saw another Atlanta touchdown, making it 19-0. The Panthers didn’t look good but the over seemed to be in good shape. The Panthers were matching down the field for a score to close out the first half and yet another gross interception from Allen. The Panthers then started the second half with another drive into Atl territory that was a turnover on downs and the Falcons responded with a score. Next drive? Rinse and repeat, turnover on downs. The next drive saw the Panthers deep in Atlanta territory in the red zone yet again, and they inexplicably kicked a field goal down 26 points. After an Atl field goal YET ANOTHER drive deep in Atlanta territory capped with an interception. Six turnovers on the day, five of which in scoring position. Not a bad beat by any means on Car but the movement of the ball was certainly there and the over should have come through. The Vikings came in taking a terrible opponent in Denver lightly and were down 20-0 before they realized they actually had to play football. They ultimately won 27-23 but failed to cover. The Chiefs over was in play but the walking meme that is Philip Rivers was unable to lead the Chargers to any second half points and the over fell short.
There was one insanely bad beat this week and of course we were on it. The Raiders laying 10.5 had more offensive difficulties than expected, but very much held down the lowly Bengals on the defensive side of the ball. They lead 14-10 laying 10.5 in the fourth quarter with a 1st and goal inside the 1 yard line. The Bengals inarguably jumped offside but the refs made a huge botch and called a false start. This ultimately lead to a field goal instead of a touchdown, changing the winning margin from 11 to 7.
The Raider beat brought the week to just 5-5.
TJ Calkins – Expert
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday.