NFL Week 11 Prop Betting Plays
22 November 2020
The theme of this week’s props is going to be on fully established roles with complete track records of production, and how severely oddsmakers are underselling some of those players. We will have six skill position players and a total of eight plays on those players, and every last one is an over. Let’s start with the running backs.
Read our NFL week 11 betting plays and predictions to get the full betting picture.
Since the Week 1 debacle in which the Browns fought their own rushing identity, Chubb has started and finished three games. He has had at least 19 carries in all of those games, and the league’s best pure rusher turned those carries into a minimum of 108 yards in every single one of those games. The matchup with the Eagles is not like ones from years past where the Eagles were a stone wall up front.
The Eagles are a bottom seven team in the league in rush defense, allowing 133 yards per game, and are now facing their most difficult opponent to date. Even still, Chubb’s rushing prop is only set at 71.5 yards. Take the over on Chubb to keep his streak of finished games hitting the century mark rolling.
Betting Play: Over 71.5 rushing yards
Harris has established himself as the team’s primary early down ball carrier, and that means chewing up yardage. For prop betting purposes, his lack of touchdowns is a non issue, and the volume and yardage is what we will focus on. Harris has at least 14 carries in each of his last three games, and has hit at least 71 yards rushing in each of those games, with the other two clearing the century mark.
Enter the matchup with Houston, the league’s worst rushing defense and we would assume to see a prop line at least over that 71 yard mark. Not to be. His prop line sits at 63.5 rushing yards while Houston is allowing 167.4 yards per game on the ground. With where this line is set, we can almost expect the over to have hit by halftime.
Betting Play: Over 63.5 rushing yards
Not exactly a household name here, but Ahmed is now carrying the load for the Dolphins until Gaskin comes back. He got 21 carries last week and we will see a similar number this week against an exploitable Broncos rush defense.
It will help that Miami will likely be playing from ahead and the prop figure is so low, at 54.5, it won’t take much of a game for Ahmed to go over. His underwhelming 85 yards last week blasted past that figure and the matchup is softer this week. This is simply a mislined player.
Betting Play: Over 54.5 rushing yards
We would think the league’s best receiver that isn’t necessarily a household name would get some respect on his name after his line last week. His 6/116/1 line was his best of the season, and the team’s clear cut top option has a real volume roll in every game he plays. He has seen at least 10 targets in every game he has played into the fourth quarter this season.
That volume has resulted in at least six catches in every one of those games and at least 77 yards in every game since Week 1. Needless to say, the matchup with he Jaguars is a very soft one, and not one to expect any let down in his consistency. With his reception prop set at 5.5 and his yardage prop set at 59.5, both are easy overs. This role and his ability are both very real and continues to be disrespected by oddsmakers.
Betting Plays: Over 5.5 receptions, Over 59.5 receiving yards
Terry McLaurin has been simply a yardage machine, and he gets an easy matchup with the Bengals secondary with a receiving yardage prop of 73.5 yards. Since Week 1 with Dwayne Haskins under center, McLaurin has gone over that figure in seven of eight games and the only one in which he failed to do so was a matchup with the Rams and Jalen Ramsey.
McLaurin averages 87.4 receiving per game and has a plus matchup here. Go ahead and fire up the consistency of McLaurin in chewing up yardage.
Betting Play: Over 73.5 receiving yards
Hayden Hurst is the epitome of an unsexy player from a fantasy football or prop betting perspective, but he has been a model of consistency. He has at least four catches in of his last four games, and has accumulated at least 54 yards in every one of those games as well. His prop lines simply do not reflect that consistency, as his reception prop is set at 3.5 and his yardage prop is set at 38.5 yards.
With Calvin Ridley returning this week, it is a slight concern he could lose a target, but the matchup is a very good one as the Saints have struggled with tight ends this year, and it is a spot where Hurst will keep rolling. Take both overs.
Betting Plays: Over 3.5 receptions, over 38.5 yards