NFL Week 10 Prop Plays
14 November 2020
Last updated: 16 November 2020 at 3:17 am
We had a very successful week of props last week, and will look to keep that rolling here in Week 10. For this week, I think the oddsmakers have done a good job projecting most of the games and making the lines, save for one game. Read our betting plays and predictions to get the full NFL week 10 betting picture.
That game is the Giants vs Eagles game, where I’d argue essentially every prop is set too low. Of our six player props on five players for this week, four plays will come from that game. Let’s get to each one, starting with that Philly game.
Wentz could very well hit the over in every single one of his props, and the Philly offense will be as close to healthy as we’ve seen this season. Jalen Reagor, Dallas Goedert and Miles Sanders will all be on the field, and we will see closer to what the typical Philly offense should look like.
With all of Wentz overs being playable, there was however one prop that jumped off the screen, and that is that his rushing prop is set at just 14.5 yards. It has mostly flown under the radar that Wentz has been quite effective running the ball this season, and has had fewer than 14 rushing yards just once since Week 2 and is averaging six carries per week.
Considering Wentz has also scored five rushing touchdowns in that span, even with the playmakers back on the field, it would be foolish to abandon that effectiveness. Take the over on 14.5 rushing.
Betting Play: Over 14.5 rushing yards
Sanders has declared himself back to 100% health, and will operate as the bell cow. With Sanders, we never quite know if he will do the majority of his damage on the ground or through pass catching, but it is a safe bet that the yardage will come.
He has had just one game this season with fewer than 99 total yards and his low game on the season is 76 total yards, with an average of 105 per game. His total yardage prop, for whatever reason, is set down at 82.5 yards and I cannot wrap my head around that one.
This just seems like a highly probable one to hit that might have sort of reinjury risk baked into the line, but that really should not be an issue.
Betting Play: Over 82.5 total yards
We cashed on both Engram’s reception total and yardage total last week, and there has simply been no adjustment from the oddsmakers on the role he plays on the Giants offense. His reception total this week remains low, at 3.5 and his yardage total is more of the same at 37.5.In each of the past three weeks, Engram has seen at least nine targets, had at least five catches and produced at least 46 yards. That includes the first matchup with these same Eagles. When the lines won’t adjust, neither will we, back on Engram for the same two plays this week.
Betting Play: Over 3.5 receptions & Over 37.5 receiving yards
One of the first things we are (should be) doing every week is checking the passing yardage prop for the quarterback facing the Seahawks. The Seahawks are allowing an unspeakable 362 passing yards per game.
For perspective, the second worst team in this category, the Falcons, allow 310 per game and the third worst Vikings allow 288. Yes, they are that much worse than everyone else. Now consider the Seahawks will be without Shaq Griffin and Quinton Dunbar this week, and Goff’s yardage prop of 292.5 yards seems disastrously low.
Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Josh Reynolds will have an absolute field day, and all that yardage gets credited to Goff as well. Easy over play here.
Betting Play: Over 292.5 passing yards
Meyers was truly elevated into his new role last week. After seeing six and ten targets the previous two weeks, he was truly unleashed last week, and he caught 12 of 14 targets. That is after four and six catch performances the previous two weeks.
Yes, the matchup with the Ravens is a tougher one, but my word they set his reception prop at 3.5. This is an indefensible figure and once we are simply required to take a stand on. Of all the sound plays of the week, this is the most glaring.
Betting Play: Over 3.5 receptions