NBA Predictions Playoff Week 9/7-9/13 – Updated Daily!

September 6, 2020

Friday Betting Play

Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics

9PM EST

Opening Line: Celtics -2 and 208

Current Line: Celtics -2.5 and 203.5

This is a Game 7 for the right to play the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. These are always exciting but the first thing that pops out about this game is lamenting the public for sharply and swiftly mashing the total downwards after it opened far too high. At 208, the under would have been the hands down easiest play in this game. 

Now that we are without that play, where do we go in Game 7? The public thinks Boston. The line has moved up a tick, and that is good for us. This has been one of the closest and most evenly matched series in recent memory and any extra points given to an underdog is going to be a very good thing. We’ve seen three of six games in this series decided by just a single possession including the instant classic Game 6. Taking a +2.5 in this series feels like far more than it is in other spots, and I do lean the Raptors to advance. 

Boston won the first two games of this series, meaning four of the last six have gone to Toronto. More importantly, each time the Raptors were in a spot where a loss would either actually eliminate them or mathematically crush their hopes, they have responded with the necessary win. Quite obviously this is an elimination game for both teams and Toronto has shown me the intangible force of will to stay alive. This may not have been the case had they been without Serge Ibaka in Game 6, but he played, seemed fine and will play again in Game 7. I would have sided with the Raptors in a proper pickem situation, but the line jumping to +2.5 certainly makes them the more attractive side. Take the Raptors to advance and play the Heat. 

Betting Play

Raptors +2.5

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Thursday Thought

I have not at all had a solid read on this Lakers Rockets series, and now the uncertainty surrounding Danuel House makes it even murkier. Sitting out on Thursday, but check back for a play on Friday.

Tuesday Review

The Heat came out and sent the Bucks home as expected in a 103-94 win. The Bucks inability to score without Giannis was apparent, both in actual output and the woeful 36% shooting performance. The Heat also smashed the glass as expected. They were +7 in total rebounds and a wild +15 on the defensive glass.

The win brings us to 6-6 on the playoffs and 80-64 on the season.

Wednesday Thoughts

The Raptors may be without Serge Ibaka on Wednesday, and that would be an underrated blow for a team on the brink. In this column I’ve talked about the need for less Marc Gasol, not more, and more is precisely the corner they will be forced into if Ibaka can’t go. The line movement from previous games already reflects the absence or limited nature of Ibaka in this game, and if he is indeed out, the Celtics would be an attractive play. 

The Nuggets seem to have figured out how to get defensive stops with Gary Harris back in his normal role, and are not a betting bulls eye or an over bulls eye any longer. I think we could see more games this series where the Clips win but fail to cover. Continuing to sit out on any plays from this series. 

I’m not putting out a dedicated play today, but if and when Ibaka is ruled out, Boston would be the best play on the board.

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