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NBA Playoff Week 8/24-30

August 23, 2020


Sunday Betting Play

Betting Play: Over 219.5

Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets


Opening Line: Jazz -2.5 and 221
Current Line: Jazz -2.5 and 219.5

After another interruption of NBA action, we are back with a play for Sunday night. This has easily been our easiest and most successful series to attack and it grants us at least one more opportunity to do so. This Game 6 will be the seventh meeting between these two teams in the bubble, and the previous results are as follows:

Nuggets 134-132 – 266 points
Nuggets 135-125 – 260 points
Jazz 124-105 – 229 points
Jazz 124-87 – 213 points
Jazz 129-127 – 257 points
Nuggets 117-107 – 224 points

The bookmakers have done what they could to move the total lines upwards as the series progressed, but the public is simply not allowing the totals to get to figures they rightfully should be at. This game opened with the highest total yet in the series, and as you can see, the line movement was downward. As a stubborn person myself, I can appreciate stubborn, but well, this ain’t the spot for it. Right back on the over, and let’s hope in a Denver win sp we can do it one more time on Tuesday. 

Tuesday Review

The Nuggets put together their best defensive performance of the series on Tuesday, en route to a 117-107 win. Note that despite said best defensive performance, the game still managed to go over the total for us. This was an enjoyable outcome for me after being adamant this line was simply still incorrect, with the total only being inflated to 220.5. The series plays on and it will allow us another over play on Thursday for Game 6 assuming the total doesn’t leap another 6+ points. 

The win brings us to 4-3 on the playoffs and 78-61 on the season. 

For Wednesday, we don’t have any plays to attack. The Blazers sans Lillard and the Magic will be officially eliminated from the playoffs today, but the favorite lines are too wide to justify attacking on both games. I also don’t have a great read on the OKC/Hou series and will be sitting that one out for at least one more game. Check back Thursday for updated bets. 

Tuesday Betting Play

Betting Play: Over 220.5

Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets

630 PM EST

Opening Line: Jazz -3 and 220.5
Current Line: Jazz -2.5 and 220.5

This is a well we will continue to go back to for as long as the series lasts. We now have five games between these two teams in the bubble, and the results were as follows:

Nuggets 134-132 – 266 points
Nuggets 135-125 – 260 points
Jazz 124-105 – 229 points
Jazz 124-87 – 213 points
Jazz 129-127 – 257 points 

You don’t have to be an expert at spotting trends to note the Jazz have scored at least 124 points in every single meeting and the lone game that didn’t go over the total was the one in which Denver could only muster 87 points. The average output in this no longer tiny sample size is 245 points, and the oddsmakers simply cannot adjust enough when the opening figures were in the mid 210’s for each game leading up to this one. 

I’ve driven this point home previously but it’s not just the Jazz putting numbers on the Nuggets. Everyone did in the bubble and they are not a team that is getting stops, and the buckets against them simply add up despite not playing at the greatest of pace. The Nuggets will still need to outscore their opponent, regardless of who it is, as opposed to stopping them. With this being established as a constant, continue to take the over for as long as the reaction on the total stays far too minimal, as it is today. 

Monday Review

Unfortunately we saw the same shooting disparity we’ve seen the last two games and the Lakers built an early lead they never relinquished. When Lillard and McCollum make a combined eight shots, it’s not that the Blazers won’t win many games, it’s that they won’t win any games. With the Blazers on the brink, it now looks bleak and I won’t be too stubborn to go back to this one again. 

The Sunday/Monday split brings us to 4-4 on the playoffs and 77-61 on the season.

Monday Against The Spread Play

Betting Play: Blazers +7

*Editors Note: TJ’s play of the over in the Utah/Denver game on Sunday did not make it up on the site but it was a dedicated play*

Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Lakers


Opening Line: Lakers -7.5 and 224.5
Current Line: Lakers -7 and 226.5

The Blazers shooting lull stretched into a two game span as they lost again on Saturday 116-108. After shooting just 39% in the blow out loss in game 2, they matched their game 1 (game 1 was a Portland win) output of 41% in game 3. The alarming thing about this for the Lakers is their game 3 shooting percentage was a whopping 55%, yet they only escaped with an eight point win. The truth is, the Blazers are yet to have an even above average shooting game in this series (they averaged 46.3% on the season) and I feel that is very unlikely to continue. Could the trend continue through the remainder of the series and could the favored Lakers avoid the upset? Sure, it’s quite possible. I still feel the more likely outcome is the Blazers get past this shooting hiccup and extend the series to go the distance and perhaps still win it. We will once again take the Blazers to cover and I wouldn’t fault anyone fo rattacking them money line tonight. Blazes +7 once again. 

TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.