NBA Picks Week 13 (Jan 13- Jan 19) – Updated Daily!
13 January 2020
With only two games on the day and it featuring Miami on the road and this walking wounded version of the Nuggets as favorites at home, there are no plays to attack.
The Bucks -9 made easy work of the Nets, 117-97. They Bucks carried a lead throughout the game and were never in any jeopardy at all, but that lead was at too much of a level to get the over home as well. The end of the bench players were inserted before the half way mark of the fourth quarter and the Nets waved the white flag quite early.
1-1 on the day brings us to 46-37 on the season.
Saturday Against The Spread Plays
Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets
Opening Line: Bucks -8 and 231.5
Current Line: Bucks -9 and 233
Anyone following the NBA news cycle this week was well aware of Kyrie Irving whining to the media about how many more pieces the Nets need, essentially throwing the current roster directly under the bus. Perhaps the mirror is a good place to start looking for help for the team. Irving has been back from injury for three games now with the team being 1-2 in those games and the only win being the layup home win against the Hawks. Additionally the team has lost nine of its last eleven games and will be without significant minute getting role players Joe Harris and Deandre Jordan in this game.
The pace of the Bucks on the road has not changed, and their betting totals on the road are currently not reflecting that pace due to the recent matchups against some very slow teams. The Nets are not that, top ten in pace at home and this one should easily cruise past the 233 figure.
The already questionable depth of the Nets takes a big blow from injuries in this one, and depth is a strength of the Bucks. Combined with the play of Giannis a d Middleton and a question of the level of team chemistry the Nets currently have, this one has the makings of a blow out.
Even though the lines of both the Bucks and the over have moved in non value directions, there is still value in both plays. Take Bucks and over in a high scoring Bucks route.
The trends both the Pistons and Pelicans -1 continued as expected, but not without a little bit of sweat. The Pels blew a late seven point lead, allowing the Pistons to force overtime. The Pels did control the overtime period however, notching a seven point win and a cover.
I was out of town for a few days but I am back now!
The win brings us to 45-36 on the season.
Monday Against The Spread Play
New Orleans Pelicans 14-26 at Detroit Pistons 14-26
Opening Line: Pelicans -1 and off
Current Line: Pelicans -1 and off
This clash of 14-26 features two teams heading in diverging directions. The Pistons are far from full strength and will continue to be without Blake Griffin, Luke Kennard and Reggie Jackson for the foreseeable future. They have lost six of their last eight games. The Pelicans on the other hand, despite dealing with some injuries of their own, have been playing much better of late, winning five of their last eight.
Unlike many teams we have been attacking of late, there is not a massive split in home/road output and win/loss for either of these teams. The Pistons 8-12 home mark is not far off from their overall record and they are playing with a shell core at the moment, and not playing well. Any off night from Drummond will be a death knell for them in that particular game.
The Pelicans road mark is also not dissimilar from their overall record. They are 7-14 away and 7-12 at home. More important is their recent play, and ability to beat teams that are not high level. Their two losses in their last eight have come against the high end Lakers , Celtics and Jazz. They have beaten the middle of the pack and lower level teams, and have won two of their last three on the road.
The Pelicans are a play due to current roster construction and play. If this matchup happened a month ago, we might even be playing the Pistons, but timing is the opposite here. Take the Pels for the win in Motor City.
Betting Play: Pelicans -1
At both halftime and through three quarters, both the Bucks -5.5 and the over 227.5 were looking great. The Bucks lead by 17 through three quarters and the total was pacing for 236 at that time. The Bucks cover was no sweat at all, but we took a nasty beat on the over. With 2:17 left, the score was 122-99, meaning the scoring pace slowed in the fourth but we just needed seven points in the last 2:17. Well, we got just two, as the final was 122-101. This means just a split on the day.
1-1 on the day brings us to 44-36 on the season.
TJ Calkins – NBA Expert
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. TJ provides daily NBA Picks on US sportsbonus.