NBA Picks For Restart Week 2020
July 29, 2020
Welcome back to our NBA betting picks platform. It’s only been a short four and a half months but we are back in action! At the time of the season’s interruption, our picks stood at 69-53 for the season, and we will try to keep that same win rate rolling.
I am rather excited for the bubble, as this could really become a nice replacement for losing March Madness this year. Neutral court basketball is the best basketball and we will get that for the duration of the season.
Blazers -2.5 – Win – The Blazers took us on a roller coaster ride on Friday. They lead fairly substantially and throughout the game, before allowing the game to tighten towards the end of regulation. They allowed it to get so tight that the game was pushed to overtime. In overtime they jumped out to a whopping 11 point lead, before allowing it to tighten again. We never got too much sweat in overtime, but definitely had to sweat this one out in general.
Kings -3.5 – Loss – For at least a one game sample, I was off on the respective overall strength of each team. This game was close throughout, but the Kings were never able to establish nor hold a lead against this version of the Spurs, which truly surprised me, particularly considering the foul trouble of Dejounte Murray. We saw Derrick White step up and the Spurs pull away in the final minutes to secure an outright win
One win and one loss brings us to 70-55 on the season.
Friday NBA Plays
After having a day to see what the new product looks like, we do essentially have neutral court basketball going on. We will need to be adaptive as we gather information now, and we have two options for plan of attack. The first would be to sit back and wait to make plays while gathering information. The second is to use the existing information and assume we can still pick winners, play equally or more heavily than before restart in quantity of plays while still gathering information. I’ll be quite honest in saying that I don’t know what the correct answer is, but at least for today, I’ll be throwing three plays out there that look to be value spots on where the lines currently sit versus what the current available rosters for the respective teams look like. Let’s get to them.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trail Blazers
Opening Line: Blazers -1.5 and 224.5
Current Line: Blazers -2.5 and 224.5
Very bluntly, this line feels incredibly disrespectful of a Blazers squad that will be very close to full strength for the first time this season. Jusuf Nurkic will play his first game of the season, while Zach Collins will play for the first time since October. This is a massive boost for the front line that already has Hassan Whiteside playing the best ball of his career. The Gizzlies remain a fun team with a bright future and have exceeded my expectations for this season already and additionally they currently lead the Blazers in playoff seeding, but I expect a full strength Blazers squad to treat this as a must win and run through the Grizz. Take the Blazers on the short line.
Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs
Opening Line: Kings -2.5 and 219.5
Current Line: Kings -3.5 and 219.5
The Spurs, a team that was a low end team to begin with, will be without Lamarcus Aldridge for the remainder of the season due to shoulder surgery. With Aldridge out, they were expected to feature Trey Lyles much more, but Lyles is also out with appendicitis. They will additionally be missing starter Bryn Forbes for the contest and what we have is an already bad team that will be egregiously short handed, particularly in the front court. The Kings are near full strength as they’ll only be without role player Alex Len and, much like the Blazers, I simply feel they should be much wider favorites than they are. The teams have split the season series so far, but the Kings are +19 in point differential in those two contests with the most recent being a 20 point blow out, that is likely to repeat itself here. Take the Kings tonight.
The Lakers did, in fact, pull of the win tip off night, the problem for us gamblers is the cover didn’t come and they only won by two points.
Every expected outcome happened. Davis had a big game, the Lakers won on the glass (+9 rebounding), and the Lakers won on points in the paint (+16). The problem was the three ball, as the Clippers made 16 of them while shooting 44% to keep the game closer than it likely should have been. A bummer, but still a loss.
The loss brings us to 69-54 on the season.
Let’s get to a betting play for tipoff on Thursday.
Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers
Opening Line: LAC -1.5 and 220.5
Current Line: LAL -4 and 215
The return game for the Clippers will see them without the heartbeat of their second unit as both Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell will be out for this game. They also may be without Patrick Beverly, who is questionable for personal reasons. This is quite a haul of their rotation to be without, particularly at point guard, as the Lakers are expected to be at full strength with the exception of Rajon Rondo, who will sit out.
I have been very steadfast in my belief that the Clippers are the best LA team and the class of the western conference, but the absence of three key players is likely to prove too much to overcome in this one game window. The absence of Harrell could be key as the front line tries to slow Anthony Davis, and his efficiency on offense against the Lakers this season can’t be understated. He’s shot 22 of 33 and averaged over 18 points in three games against the Lakers this season. His rebounding will also be missed, and if Beverly misses as well, the Clips could see themselves smashed on the glass. The absence of Williams could also be a problem when looking for scoring options beyond Leonard and George and already without the efficiency of Harrell.
While the Clippers are the better bet for the end of the season, I really like the Lakers to get a fairly easy win against the short handed Clips laying just four points. Take the Lakers in the one game window.