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Miami Hurricanes (11) vs. NC State Wolfpack Betting Picks and Predictions

05 November 2020

NCAAF Picks Austyn Varney
Date:Friday, November 6th
Time:7:30 PM ET
Network:ESPN
Venue:Carter-Finley Stadium
Spread:Miami -10
O/U:58.5

The 5-1 Miami Hurricanes will go on the road Friday night to face off with the 4-2 NC State Wolfpack at 7:30 PM ET in Carter-Finley Stadium. You can watch the ACC showdown on ESPN as the featured game of the night. The ‘Canes come in as 10-point road favorites and we’re expecting a bit of a shootout with a 58.5 over/under. This figures to be an exciting game and we’ll be looking for a bankroll boost before the weekend starts. Let’s dive into how this game will go down and who will cover the spread. Check out the rest of my CFB Picks and Predictions for this weekend.

Trends

  • Miami-FL is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • North Carolina State is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Miami-FL’s last 17 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami-FL’s last 15 games played in November.

When The Miami Hurricanes Have The Ball

We’re now nine weeks into the CFB season and the only team Miami has lost to is the Clemson Tigers. They’ve beaten Pittsburgh and Virginia in back-to-back weeks and are seemingly improving every time they take the field. They’re averaging 32.8 points per game 413 yards of offense. The defense has ranked third in the conference and is constantly hunting for turnovers. Bubba Bolden and Amari Carter are two of the best safeties in the country and are the leaders of this offense.

Transfer-QB D’Eriq King has been everything the Hurricanes could have hoped for, and then some. He’s completed 61.2% of his passes for 1,401 yards and 11 touchdowns with just four interceptions. He’s also the team’s second-leading rusher with 301 yards and two scores. King is a mature leader of this offense and he does a great job of spreading the ball around and knowing when to handle it by himself.

The running game has opened the pass up, as teams cannot leave the box undermanned or Cam’Ron Harris will make them pay. He’s carried the ball 66 times for 346 yards and five touchdowns, averaging just over five yards per carry. Along with King, he’s complemented by Donald Chaney Jr. and Jaylan Knighton, who have each carried it 38 times for 150+ yards and have combined for four scores. The Hurricanes have rushed for 1,017 yards as a team and will look to establish the run early and often on the road in this one.

King has done a phenomenal job of spreading the ball around in this offense and the Hurricanes have seven pass-catchers with either 11+ catches or 140+ yards. WR Mike Harley leads the way with 27 catches for 344 yards and two scores. TE Brevin Jordan is one of the best at his position in the country and he’s hauled in 18 balls for 243 yards and three touchdowns. Mark Pope, Dee Wiggins, and Will Mallory will all see the field on 50%+ of pass plays and have been productive next to Jordan and Harley.

When The NC State Wolfpack Have The Ball

The Wolfpack have been an up and down team for the majority of the last decade, but this 2020 squad seems to buck that trend. They did lose to North Carolina and Virginia Tech, but those are two ranked teams that are just more talented. What NC State hasn’t done this year is blow an easy one, as they’ve taken care of Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Virginia, and Duke en route to a 4-2 record. In other words, the Wolfpack have beaten the teams they should have beat and loss to the ones they should have loss to. They’ll have a chance to buck that trend against the 11th-ranked ‘Canes.

Everything isn’t as it seems for NC State. Both games they lost were with Bailey Hockman at QB. Devin Leary is one of the most underrated players ins CFB and he would’ve beat UNC last week. He’s out for the season and NC State will turn back to Hockman here. He is beyond terrible and has absolutely no upside. I don’t mean to be harsh, but he’s so terrible it is hard to watch. Freshman Ben Finley looked good against UNC late and I guarantee Hockman will play bad enough again where we will see Finley again. I’m not sure why the Wolfpack keep playing Hockman, but it’s hard to feel bad when they inevitably lose.

I don’t trust any of this offense with Hockman under center. He’s always thrown for a lot of yards, but he makes foolish decisions in the red zone and has no idea how to utilize his weapons. The Wolfpack would be wise to run the ball here and keep it out of his hands. Zonovan Knight (69 carries, 406 yards, three TDs) and Ricky Person Jr. (73 carries, 335 yards, three TDs) share the backfield and both offer defenses diverse problems.

The only reason Hockman might be able to survive is because of these weapons. Emeka Emezie is one of the best receivers in the country and Cary Angeline is dynamite in the RZ. He’s caught five touchdowns already this season. Thayer Thomas and Devin Carter round out the receiving core and both are dangerous with the ball in their hands. With all of that said, it comes down to Hockman being decent enough to stay in this game.

Spread Prediction

I will never recommend betting on NC State when Bailey Hockman is starting under center and the Miami Hurricanes are going to eat him alive. If the Wolfpack but in Finley early enough, they might be able to keep it somewhat close. I don’t expect that to happen, however, and the Hurricanes should control this game from the start. The Wolfpack would likely be 2-4 instead of 4-2 with Hockman under center, so don’t think about their current record.

The Hurricanes are potent offensively and they’re going to wear down the Wolfpack defense. D’Eriq King is the best player on the field and he’s going to have another 300+ combined yards in this game. The Hurricanes are one of my favorites bets of the entire weekend and I love picking them up as a Friday night bankroll booster.

The Pick: Miami -10

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

Total Prediction

I’ve said it a million times already. I don’t trust this NC State offense worth a lick and the Wolfpack are going to struggle to move the ball. On the Hurricanes side, they are never in a hurry to put up a ton of points. They will always stay dedicated to running the ball and while the points come, they aren’t a high-powered attack. Give me the under in this game and I wouldn’t mind laying two units on both the total and spread here.

The Pick: Under 58.5

Final Score Prediction: Miami 38, NC State 17

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

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