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LSU Tigers vs. Missouri Tigers Betting Picks and Predictions

09 October 2020

NCAAF Picks Austyn Varney
Date:Saturday, October 10th
Time:12:00 PM ET
Venue:Memorial Stadium
Network:SEC Network
Spread:LSU -20
O/U:53.5

The 1-1 LSU Tigers will go on the road Saturday night to face off with the 0-2 Missouri Tigers at 12:00 PM ET in Memorial Stadium. You can watch the showdown on SEC Network. The 2020 season hasn’t gone according to plan for either of these teams and the loser of this one will find themselves even deeper in the hole. LSU enters as 20-point favorites and we’re looking at a 53.5 over/under. Let’s dive into how this game will go down and who will cover the spread. 

When the LSU Tigers Have The Ball

After a disappointing loss to Mississippi State to start the season, LSU bounced back with a 41-7 win over the Vanderbilt Commodores in a game that was never close. Superstar-recruit John Emery Jr. had his first 100+-yard game and he found the end zone. The defense looked back to normal, holding Vandy to under 250 total yards. 

QB Myles Brennan has thrown for 682 yards through two games with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. He hasn’t been perfect, but the upside is obviously there if he can put everything together. He has the weapons at his disposal with Terrace Marshall Jr. and Jaray Jenkins being two of the most talented receivers in the country. Both have been over 100 yards through two games and Marshall has already found paydirt four times. Erik Gilbert is the tight end in this offense and he’s a solid target in short-yardage spots. 

At running back, five-star recruit John Emery Jr. looks to slowly be taking over. Tyrion-Davis Price will have his place in the offense, but Emery is one of the more raw athletes in the country and he has the potential to be a top-3 back. He’s averaged 6.8 yards per carry through two games and it’ll be interesting to see if he can maintain it. 

The Tigers have to set the tone defensively and it starts with LD Damone Clark. He leads this defense and is responsible for calling the plays. JaCoby Stevens is one of the best safeties in the country and makes a huge impact in the secondary. He has 17 tackles and two sacks through two games. The Tigers have more than enough talent to beat anyone. It just comes down to playing together and minimizing mistakes. 

When The Missouri Tigers Have The Ball

The Missouri Tigers weren’t liked by the schedule creators and were given Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, and Florida in four of the first five weeks. Yikes. They were beaten handily by Bama and Tennessee and it’s hard to get a gauge on just how good or bad the squad is. 

QBs Connor Bazelak and Shawn Robinson have split time with neither separating from the other. Bazelak at least adds a rushing threat and can push the ball downfield. His weapons are SEC-level with Damon Hazelton and Jalen Knox being guys that would start on the other side of this ball. They’re the only two receivers with over four catches thus far. 

The backfield is shared between Larry Rountree III and Tyler Badie. Rountree is a hard-nosed runner while Badie is more of a specialist that can make a difference in the passing game as well. Even with the two blowouts, Rountree has run for 151 yards and a score on nearly five yards per carry. He’s been a lone silver lining for the offense.

If the Tigers want to keep this game competitive, they have to slow down an LSU attack that appeared to pick up some legs last week. The individual defenders are there, but Missouri has been hashed in the ground and it’s hard to compete in the SEC when you’re allowing well over five yards per carry. 

Spread Prediction

LSU didn’t look very good in week one against Mississippi State, but that’s excusable as there wasn’t a drop of tape on what Mike Leach would look like in the SEC. They righted the ship last time out against Vanderbilt and the offense looked to regain their footing. This is by no means a team that will ever compare to last year, but they are still extremely talented and they’re going to blowout Missouri. 

Missouri is packed with talent, but they don’t have any consistent QB play and they have trouble in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They’ve lost seven of their last eight conference games for a reason. LSU still has a ways to go before they dig themselves out of week one, but a blowout victory here won’t do any damage. I’ll take LSU up to 23.5. 

The Pick: LSU -20

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

Total Prediction

I don’t have much internet betting this total as it’s completely up in the air how this game goes. I’m leaning the over as LSU will have no problem putting up 40-45 points. It just comes down to whether Missouri can pull their own weight or not. The LSU defense looked atrocious in week one and much better in week two. I expect somewhere in the middle against Missouri, but I will guarantee they force at least two turnovers. The over is the way to go, but I’d rather bet LSU to take his one going away. 

The Pick: Over 53.5

Final Score Prediction: LSU 42, Missouri 13

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers
Why is LSU -20 the bet to make?

– LSU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
– Missouri are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games.

Why is Over 53.5 the bet to make?

– The total has gone OVER in 14 of Louisiana State’s last 20 games.

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