LSU Tigers vs Florida Gators Betting Picks
October 13, 2020
|Date:||Saturday, October 17th|
|Time:||4:00 PM ET|
|Venue:||Ben Hill Griffin Stadium|
The 1-2 LSU Tigers will go on the road Saturday afternoon to face off with the 2-1 Florida Gators at 3:30 PM ET in The Swamp. The Gators come in as 13-point home favorites and we’re looking at a 73.5 over/under. You’ll rarely see a higher total between two SEC teams, but it’s no surprise as both defenses have been terrible early in the season. Let’s dive into how this game will go down and who will cover the spread.
When the LSU Tigers Have The Ball
I predicted before the season started that the LSU Tigers would be the most disappointing team in the country. It’s certainly been true through three weeks as they’ve lost to Mississippi State and Missouri. They’re still somehow ranked 17th, which makes zero sense. They should not have a number next to their name.
The defense has been pitiful, allowing 38 points against per game while forcing just two turnovers. A few of the yardage numbers are skewed from the Mississippi State game, but the point stands that LSU has been terrible defensively. It won’t get any easier against a Florida team that brings one of the best offenses in the nation to the table. If LSU wants any shot of containing Florida, they will have to figure the secondary out. As it stands, Trask will throw for 500+ yards.
The LSU offense is an extremely capable one and they would be fine if a typical LSU defense was on board. QB Myles Brennan has been decent, throwing for 1,112 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. He has to be better consistently and not just when he feels like it. The Tigers should be up by 20+ points in some of these games, but the offense just doesn’t do enough to move the needle.
The running backs are an interesting situation as it sure seems like five-star recruit John Emery is starting to distance himself from the field. He’s averaging a whopping 6.5 yards per carry, though he’s run the ball just 21 total times. Tyrion Davis-Price and Chris Curry will be in the mix as well, but Emery has a chance to be a game changer at the next level and I would be feeding him the ball if I was Ed Orgeron.
Brennan still has some of the best wide receivers in college football and it begins with Terrace Marshall Jr. The 6’3 Junior has already caught 21 balls for 424 yards and seven touchdowns through just three games. If Brennan is doing one thing perfect, it’s looking toward Marshall when it matters. Tight end Arik Gilbert is the only other guy with double-digit catches and he has 14 for 177 and two scores. The Tigers have four or five other receivers with immense talent that are still working out the chemistry with Brennan.
It all comes down to the defense if LSU wants to win this game. The Gators offense can put up 60 points and we’ve seen LSU give up 40+ to much worse. The Gators are also coming off a heartbreaker, so they won’t be taking it easy. Look for LSU to blitz early in an attempt to throw the Gators offense out of rhythm.
When The Florida Gators Have The Ball
The Florida Gators were in a perfect spot to win last week against the Aggies. It was a tie game with just three minutes remaining. Trask has been impeccable and the Gators were moving the ball with ease. That’s when the entire season turned on its head as Malik Davis fumbled the football and gave Texas AM the game on a silver platter. The season isn’t over for the Gators, however, as they play three more ranked opponents, including Georgia. The top-10 is also relatively weak and there will be a spot up for grabs if Florida wins out and wins the SEC championship.
They live and die in the right arm of Kyle Trask, who’s been one of the best signal callers in all of College Football to this point. Through just three games, Trask has thrown for 996 yards (71% comp) with 14 TD’s and just one interception. He’s run for another 28 and has been more mobile this season.
The weapons Trask has to work with are some of the best in the county, starting with TE Kyle Pitts. The best tight end in CFB has 17 catches for 274 yards and seven touchdowns in three games. Human joystick Kadarius Toney has added 18 catches for 237 yards and four scores. He has phenomenal instincts and will make plays at the next level. Trevon Grimes has only caught eight balls to this point, but he remains a reliable target in crucial spots.
Malik Davis and Dameon Pierce share the Backfield and both are dangerous. They are the type of runners to stay quiet in CFB and then turn into a name at the next level. Think Gillislee or Matt Jones. Both are averaging 4.9+ yards per carry, but the Gators just haven’t run a ton. Pierce has 25 carries to 16 for Davis.
The Florida Gators offense will be too much to handle for LSU and I don’t see them keeping up. The Gators passing attack is lethal and the Tigers haven’t been able to stop much worse offenses to this point. They’re also coming off a loss, and Dan Mullen will make sure to come out hot as this team can’t afford any more L’s if they still want a shot at the playoff. Take the Gators before the line is bet up to two touchdowns. The Gators are the better team on both sides of the ball and they’re hosting in the Swamp. Don’t overthink this one. Go with UF.
This number is incredibly high, but nobody would be surprised to see both teams end up in the 40’s. Neither defense has shown an ability to slow anyone down and this will be the best offense either defense has faced to this point. Give me the over here all day up to 75 points.