Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gators Betting Picks

November 23, 2020

Date:Saturday, November 28th
Time:12:00 PM ET
Network:ESPN
Venue:Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Spread:Florida -24
O/U:61

The 3-5 Kentucky Wildcats will go on the road Saturday to face off with the 6-1 Florida Gators at 12:00 PM ET in The Swamp. The Gators come in as 24-point home favorites and we’re expecting plenty of points with a 61 over/under. You can tune into the SEC showdown on ESPN or ESPN3. The Gators are still in the hunt for a CFB playoff spot and they’re looking to make a big impact every week. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my CFB Picks and Predictions for this weekend slate of games. 

Trends

  • Wildcats are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Over is 19-7 in Wildcats last 26 games in November.
  • Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

When The Kentucky Wildcats Have The Ball

The Wildcats have struggled mightily this season and their most recent loss came 63-3 at the hands of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Terry Wilson was given his starting QB role back and struggled, predictably. He must have a big day against a Florida defense that has struggled in multiple games. 

Where the Wildcats shine is at running back. Chris Rodriguez and Amir Rose are both extremely talented and the Wildcats rank 12th in the country in rushing yards per game. They average nearly six yards per carry as a pair. The Gators main weakness comes against the run and these guys should see a combined 25 carries at least. It just comes down to Kentucky staying close enough where they can continue to run the football. 

When The Florida Gators Have The Ball

The Gators offense is one of the best in the country at throwing the football, if not the best. Redshirt senior QB Kyle Trask has completed 71% of his passes for 2,554 yards, 31 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts are two of the best pass-catchers in the entire country, but this is also a well-built scheme Dan Mullen has built that doesn’t rely on any one player. 

Trask will have another big game against Kentucky and it just comes down to how big. This is a large spread and the Gators need Trask to keep the pedal grounded. I’m willing to bet Trask has a few more 4-5 TD games as he remains in the Heisman discussion. The Gators don’t do it much, but Malik Davis and Dameon Pierce split carries when the Gators do run it. 

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Florida -24

This is a very accurate number and I’m a bigger fan of betting the total. The Gators are going to put a beating on Kentucky, but who knows by how much. The Wildcats gave Alabama a tough test in the first quarter of the last game before getting stomped. I expect the Gators to win by 22-30 points, so this is a spread I will stay away from. If I had to pick a side, it would definitely be Florida. They could put a similar whopping on Kentucky if they don’t show up. 

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Over 61
Final Score Prediction: Florida 45, Kentucky 17

The over is my favorite bet in this game to make. The Gators are going to put up 40+ points on Kentucky and their defense isn’t shutdown by any means. I expect a ton of points in this game and for the over to get smashed early. I don’t even mind finding an alternate total up to 75 points here as I think it shoots out in a big way. 

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