Isner vs Garin Prediction: ATP Toronto Betting Picks

August 10, 2021

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3:00 PM ET Aug 11
John Isner vs Cristian Garin
Isner -1.5 sets
+115
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Isner vs Garin pits two players with some explosive serving against one another in the second round of the ATP Toronto Masters. Isner comes in on fine form on hard courts, while Garin will look to get back into the swing of things on this surface. In this edition of ATP tennis picks, we look at the Isner vs Garin matchup and point you in the direction of the best bet for this matchup.

John Isner vs Cristian Garin Betting Pick

Isner vs Garin Pick: Isner -1.5 sets (+115)

John Isner continued rolling on the North American hardcourt swing with his first round win over Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina on Tuesday in Toronto. The American spent an hour and six minutes on court in his first-round win, gutting out a 6-4 first set over his Spanish opponent before demolishing him 6-1 in the second. Isner has won six straight matches, winning the five in a row needed to take the Atlanta title before his opening round showing in Toronto.

As is always the case for Isner, the first serve will be the key. And his first serve was nothing short of electric on Tuesday, with Isner landing 75% of his first serves in play, winning 30 of those 39 points. While claiming just under half of his second serve points against Davidovich-Fokina is a concern, Isner only had to play 13 second serve points on Tuesday and will look to replicate that against Garin.

Cristian Garin did not play a first round match in Toronto, riding his ranking to a first round bye at this tournament. And that is a good thing for him, as Garin’s form on this surface has been anything but inspiring. Garin has played just two hardcourt matches in 2021, losing his opener in Delray Beach to Christian Harrison before dropping his opener in Miami to Marin Cilic. Garin is a clay courter through and through, which is not beneficial when taking on a hard court player like Isner.

In fact, dating back to the start of the 2020 season, Garin is just 3-10 on hard courts and has failed to progress past the second round in any hardcourt event over that span. He has not posted a winning record over the course of a year on this surface since 2018, when he racked up wins on the Challenger circuit before his main tour breakthroughs. And while he could outhit Isner for stretches of this match, his lack of hardcourt form is alarming.

Isner vs Garin has been played twice on hardcourts previously, with Garin surprisingly winning both matchups. Both of those contests came in 2019, with Garin beating Isner in Montreal and again indoors at Paris-Bercy. Those wins feel like they were ages ago, though, as Garin has almost completely ignored hardcourt tennis to focus on boosting his ranking on his preferred clay.

There is always an adjustment period when switching surfaces in tennis, especially when a player is leaving their preferred surface and moving to one they do not play well on. Garin is the victim of that situation in this match, as he will have no prep period for the heavy Isner serve and is unlikely to cope with it. At a plus price, Isner to win this match in straight sets is a solid play given his form on the North American hardcourt circuit and Garin’s complete lack thereof.

Isner vs Garin Pick: Isner -1.5 sets (+115)

Tennis Betting FAQ

Why did Nadal drop out of Toronto?

Rafael Nadal dropped out of the Toronto Masters tournament citing the foot injury that has been bothering him in recent weeks. That decision made life a lot easier on his prospective opponent for the second round, Lloyd Harris, who had just beat Nadal in Washington last week. Nadal will now see if he can go in Cincinnati before the US Open gets going.

What does that do to the list of favorites to win the tournament?

The withdrawal of Nadal makes Daniil Medvedev a bigger favorite to win the Toronto Masters. Medvedev came back from a set down to beat Alexander Bublik in the second round of the tournament and will avoid Nadal in the final if he gets that far.

Is Tsitsipas the biggest challenge to Medvedev in Toronto?

Stefanos Tsitsipas is probably the toughest challenge that Medvedev could face in Toronto if they were to face one another. With Nadal gone, and Medvedev always playing well against Andrey Rublev, a battle between Medvedev and Tsitsipas would likely put the most strain on the Russian of any remaining player in the draw.

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Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is a sports writer and broadcaster from Albany, NY. He has covered sports betting and the gambling industry since 2013.