Indiana Hoosiers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Betting Picks

December 4, 2020

Date:Saturday, December 5th
Time:3:30 PM ET
Network:ABC
Venue:Camp Randall Stadium
Spread:Wisconsin -13
O/U:44.5

The 5-1 Indiana Hoosiers will go on the road Saturday afternoon to face off with the 2-1 Wisconsin Badgers at 3:30 PM ET in Camp Randall Stadium. The Badgers come in as 13-point favorites and we’re expecting a defensive affair with a 44.5 over/under. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my CFB Picks and Predictions for this upcoming weekend slate of games.

Trends

  • Hoosiers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 games as a road favorite.
  • Over is 4-1 in Golden Bears last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

When The Indiana Hoosiers Have The Ball

The Hoosiers will be without their heartbeat and leader in this game as QB Michael Penix tore his ACL. Sophomore Jack Tuttle will take over as a former four-star recruit. The potential for Tuttle to be great is there, but it will be hard for him to jump into an offense built around Penix. Senior HB Stevie Scott III (405 yards, 8 TD) will play an even bigger role in the offense and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 20 carries from him. Tuttle has two elite weapons to use on the outside in Ty Fryfogle (652 yards, 7 TD) and Whop Philyor (367 yards, 2 TD). He would be wise to get them the ball in space as they will do the hard work.

When The Wisconsin Badgers Have The Ball

The Badgers were primed to make a run at the playoffs before Northwestern shut them down 17-7 in a game that never felt close. They put up 45+ points in their previous two games, so it was quite a wake-up call for this offense. Northwestern also has a disgusting defense. Freshman Graham Mertz (605 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT) is one of the best signal-callers we’ve seen at Wisconsin in some time and it’s why this offense throws it more than we’re used to. Jake Ferguson (18 catches, 181 yards, 4 TD) is one of the best tight ends in the entire country and a threat anytime this offense is around the end zone.

At running back, Jalen Berger has emerged as he’s averaging six yards per carry. Garrett Groshek and Nakia Watson have over 20 carries as well, but they haven’t been as effective and I expect Berger to get the most carries moving forward. They will have to run the ball effectively against an Indiana team that’s been tough against the pass.

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Wisconsin -13

The Badgers looked bad against Northwestern, but those were two bulls smashing their heads against each other. It was ugly and it’s hard to use that against them. The Hoosiers won’t have the same resistance and the Badgers are going to beat them comfortably. The Hoosiers backup QB is talented, but the offense has no chemistry with him and it won’t be pretty in game one. I like the Badgers here as my favorite bet in this game and one of my featured bets of the week.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Over 44.5
Final Score Prediction: Wisconsin 31, Indiana 14

The Bagers put up 45+ points in each of their first two games and I expect them a lot closer to that number than the seven they put up against NW. The Hoosiers offense might have some trouble, but the Badgers defense isn’t phenomenal and they’ll put up a few scores. I like the over here, though it’s not my favorite bet of the game.

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