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Florida Gators (8) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (5) Betting Picks and Predictions

06 November 2020

NCAAF Picks Austyn Varney
Date:Saturday, November 7th
Time:3:30 PM ET
Network:CBS
Venue:TIAA Bank Field
Spread:Georgia -3.5
O/U:54

The 3-1 Florida Gators will go on the road Saturday afternoon to face off with the 4-1 Georgia Bulldogs at 3:30 PM ET in TIAA Bank Field. You can tune into the SEC showdown on CBS as the featured game of the week. The Bulldogs come into the bout as 3.5-point home favorites and we’re looking at a 52.5 over/under. Let’s dive into who will win this game and cover the spread in the process. Make sure to check out the rest of my NCAAF Picks and Predictions for this weekend slate of games. 

Trends

  • Georgia is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida’s last 9 games when playing as the underdog.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida’s last 6 games.

When The Florida Gators Have The Ball

The Gators season has been a bit discombobulated after losing to Texas A&M. They were hit with an influx of COVID cases and have played just one game in the last month. It was a 41-17 victory over the Missouri Tigers in a game that was never in question. Head coach Dan Mullen has this Gators rolling on both sides of the football and they know their identity. They’ll get their toughest test of the season against a Georgia Bulldogs team that won’t give them an inch.

The offense is led by QB Kyle Trask, who’s been one of the best signal-callers in college football to this point. Through just four games, he’s thrown for 1,341 yards and 18 touchdowns with just two interceptions. He’s added 75 yards on the ground and does a good job in short-yardage spots of using his big body. Trask is one of the best in the entire country and a clear spot where the Gators have an advantage.

His weapons are just as good with TE Kyle Pitts and WR Kadarius Toney leading the way. I’ll make a guess that both will end up being drafted in the first or second round of the NFL draft. Pitts has picked up 355 yards and seven touchdowns while Toney has caught 22 balls for 297 yards and six touchdowns on top of eight carries for another 83 yards and a score. When those two aren’t getting targeted, it could be anyone. Seven other pass-catchers have four or more catches and Trask does a good job of spreading it around when he has to.

Florida doesn’t run it that much under Mullen, but they’ll look to establish themselves here in this game early in order to gain some respect from the UGA defense. Dameon Pierce has emerged as the lead back, carrying it 34 times for 169 yards and a score. Malik Davis has run it 16 times and Nay’Quan Wright sits at 18. Trask and Toney run the ball a lot as well, so this Gators team is hard to pin down as a defense. All in all, expect Trask to throw the ball around for 300+ yards and for the Gators to be right in this game.

When The Georgia Bulldogs Have The Ball

The Bulldogs are 4-1 this season with their sole loss coming to the Alabama Crimson Tide in a game that was relatively close. They beat up on seventh-ranked Auburn and 14th-ranked Tennessee by a combined score of 71-27, along with Kentucky and Arkansas. The Gators are the last ranked team Georgia will play, so they’re looking to prove a big point in this one. They gave up just three points to Kentucky a week ago and are in a phenomenal spot if the defense can show up like that once again. It won’t be that easy, however, as this Gators offense is one of the best in the country.

Offensively, Georgia isn’t the most lethal team. They never have been and it’s just not how the offense is built. They want to run the ball as much as possible and throw it when necessary. As a team, the Bulldogs have rushed it for 876 yards and eight touchdowns. It starts with Zamir White, who has six of those scores and 402 yards. Kendall Milton, Kenny McIntosh, and James Cook are all elite recruits and have picked up around 20 carries apiece as compliments to White. Look for Georgia to run it a ton against a Gators team that has struggled to stop it all season long.

QB Stetson Bennett has been what Georgia has hoped for. He’s a classic game manager that doesn’t have all that much interest in pushing the ball downfield. He’s completed 58% of his passes for 1,089 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions. He’s been a slight downgrade from Jake Fromm as the turnovers aren’t what the Bulldogs are looking for out of a QB.

The primary target for Bennett is WR Kearis Jackson, who’s hauled in 24 balls for 348 yards and a touchdown. He’s an athletic freak and Bennett does a good job of letting him go to work. George Pickens is a monster in the Red Zone and he’s converted two touchdowns on just 13 catches. HB James Cook has also caught 10 passes out of the backfield, and he can take it to the house on any given screen. The Gators must be careful as Georgia loves to pull their lineman and get the ball on the outside.

Spread Prediction

This is going to be a phenomenal game to watch and this is my top game of the weekend to tune into. The Florida Gators had a hiccup against the Texas A&M Aggies, but they still control their destiny. If they win out in the regular season, they will match up with the Alabama Crimson Tide in the championship. I like the Gators to beat the Bulldogs in this game. The Gators offense is far more potent and I expect the Gators defensive talent to finally rise to the top. The Gators have been preparing for the Bulldogs rush attack for nearly a month now.

If both defenses perform similarly, there is no way the Bulldogs can match Florida offensively. I still expect Zamir White to have plenty of success, but I also expect Trask to throw it around at will and there are too many weapons on Florida to contain. I’ll take the three points, but don’t mind taking the Gators money line as I fully expect them to go in and upset the Bulldogs on Saturday.

The Pick: Gators +3

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

Total Prediction

I don’t love either side of this number and I typically don’t between two SEC teams. If I had to take a lean, it’s on the over. I expect the Gators offense to have a lot of success in this game and their defense has given up a lot to much worse offenses. I don’t see Kyle Trask being contained against this defense, so they will have to keep up to keep it close. Give me the over, but I’d much rather take the Gators and not worry about the total.

The Pick: Over 54

Final Score Prediction: Gators 34, Bulldogs 32

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

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