Florida Gators vs. Oklahoma Sooners Cotton Bowl Betting Picks

December 28, 2020

Date:Wednesday, December 30th
Time:8:00 PM ET
Network:ESPN
Venue:AT&T Stadium
Spread:Florida -3
O/U:71.5

The 8-3 Florida Gators will meet up with the 8-2 Oklahoma Sooners in the Cotton Bowl on Wednesday night at 8:00 PM ET in AT&T Stadium. It’s going to be an explosive game and the Florida Gators come in as three-point favorites with a high 71.5 over/under. You can tune into the matchup on ESPN. This is the first big bowl game of the season and I’m not sure it could be more fun. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of our CFB Picks and Predictions as we will have every single bowl game covered.

Trends

  • Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
  • Gators are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 7-2-1 in Sooners last 10 games as an underdog.

When The Florida Gators Have The Ball

The Gators are one of the more explosive teams in the country, at least offensively. Their struggles have come on defense, where Florida seems to struggle in just about every game. They must step up against an Oklahoma offense that has been more and more polished in every game. Led by QB Kyle Trask, the Gators will throw the ball at least 40 times. He’s up to 4,125 yards and 43 touchdowns with just five interceptions. He’s a Heisman finalist and will likely be a first-round NFL draft pick.

Tight end Kyle Pitts has opted out of this game, but that doesn’t mean the Gators don’t have plenty of weapons to play with. It starts with WR Kadarius Toney, who I like to call the human joystick. He is a threat to score on any play and is up to 70 catches for 984 yards and 10 touchdowns. Trevon Grimes and Jacob Copeland back him up as excellent wideouts and they combined for close to 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns.

The Gators don’t run the ball a ton, but Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis are excellent backs when given the ball. They are solid in the passing game and Pierce is an excellent blocker. If the Gators defense can step up, they will easily control this game. It won’t be easy against a Sooners offense that’s been phenomenal of late.

When The Oklahoma Sooners Have The Ball

Oklahoma was written off by all after losing two of their first three games of the season. They’ve since rattled off seven straight victories and finally once again eclipsed the top-10. The defense has stepped up in a massive way with Brian Asamoah being one of the best LB’s in the entire country. They’ll be asked to step up against what might be the most prolific passing attack in the entire country.

Offensively, the Sooners are led by QB Spencer Rattler. He started off the season with a few inconsistent performances, but has looked a lot better since and many think he’s better than some of the previous studs we’ve seen at the position for Oklahoma. He’s up to 2,784 passing yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions on top of another 120 rushing yards and five scores.

Weapon-wise, this team has plenty. Marvin Mims and Theo Wease each have 36 catches on the season with Mims leading the way with 583 yards and eight touchdowns. Jeremiah Hall could be an x-factor as the backup TE has five touchdowns in just 17 total catches. At HB, Rhamondre Stevenson and T.J. Pledger split time. Stevenson is the better all-around back and will fit this game script better.

Spread Prediction

The Pick: UF -3

The Gators offense is going to be too much for Oklahoma to handle. While the Sooners have been great since losing two in a row early, they haven’t faced an offense nearly as lethal as the one the Gators will bring to the table. While Pitts will miss this game, Florida still has plenty of weapons and it’s not like Oklahoma is fully intact either. While it’s not my favorite bet of the game, I lean Florida to win this game by about a touchdown to 10 points.

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Over 71.5
Final Score Prediction: Florida 49, Oklahoma 42

My favorite bet in this game is the over and it’s not all that close. I expect both teams to sit around 40 points in this game and for the winner to push 50. This number is simply too low. Both defenses have talent, but they have constantly given up big plays on both sides. Both offenses will play at a torrid pace and neither wants to run the ball all that often. This number will continue to grow as we approach kickoff and you’re best grabbing it as soon as you can. The over is the only smart play in this game and I will have up to five units on it. This is my favorite overall bet up to this point in the bowl season.

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