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Colorado State Rams vs. Boise State Broncos Betting Picks and Predictions

09 November 2020

NCAAF Picks Austyn Varney
Date:Thursday, November 12th
Time:8:00 PM ET
Network:FS1
Venue:Albertsons Stadium
Spread:Boise State -13
O/U:61.5

The 1-1 Colorado State Rams will go on the road Thursday night to face off with the 2-1 Boise State Broncos at 8:00 PM ET in Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos host the Rams as 13-point favorites and we’re expecting plenty of points with a 61.5 over/under. You can tune in on FS1 as this is the only FBS game of the night. The Broncos are coming off a terrible performance while the Rams just upset Wyoming. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my NCAAF Picks and Predictions for this weekend slate of games.

Trends

  • Colorado State is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Thursday.
  • Colorado State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in week 11.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado State’s last 6 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boise State’s last 6 games played on a Thursday.

When The Colorado State Rams Have The Ball

The Rams have only played two games to this point and they were a very different team in each contest. With that being said, they didn’t have the majority of their starting lineup in the loss, so I am willing to throw that game out. That leaves us with last week against Wyoming, where CSU entered as three-point underdogs and walked away with a 10-point victory. The Rams looked strong on both sides of the ball and the offense looked a lot more like we expected this season.

QB Patrick O’Brien was actually benched for Todd Centeio in the opener, but that didn’t work out very well and O’Brien was back in the game by the fourth quarter. He has completed 70% of his passes through two games for 337 yards and three touchdowns. He hasn’t turned the ball over yet and has done a great job of getting the proper weapons the ball. Colorado State is a lot more talented of a squad than most think, and we can use that to our advantage.

The Rams don’t have a ton of depth at wideout with WR Warren Jackson opting out, but the talent they do have could start anywhere in the country. It starts with Dante Wright, who has only played one game and caught 10 balls for 146 yards. He’s one of the best slot receivers in the country and will average 10+ touches every single game. Trey McBride is one of the best tight ends in the country and he’s been electric through two games with 13 catches for 220 yards and three touchdowns. The senior is 6’4 and 260 pounds with immense speed, so this is no usual TE that defenses are used to. He’s more like a WR that lines up on the inside and can run past you. Nate Craig-Myers is WR3 and a safe option when the other two are covered up.

Colorado State likes to throw the ball, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they throw it even more going forward as the running game just hasn’t worked. A’Jon Vivens and Marcus McElroy have both carried it 20+ times, but neither has hit 100 total yards. As the passing game picks up more respect, the holes will be there for these backs. Vivens is more of the speedster while McElroy prefers to run you over.

When The Boise State Broncos Have The Ball

After beating Utah State and Air Force handedly to start the season, the Broncos were handed an absolute whooping by the BYU Cougars in a game they ended up losing 51-17. It was never close and the Cougars could have kept scoring if they wanted to. It’s obvious that Boise State is simply not on that elite level, but it’s also obvious that they were a lot better than the two teams they beat to start the season. They were also without their starting QB and the backup was hurt during the first drive, so the Broncos weren’t neccesarily working ahead of the eight-ball. The CSU Rams fall somewhere in the middle between BYU and the other two teams, and it’ll be interesting to see how Boise can adjust after getting blown out.

The Broncos are hopeful to have starting QB Hank Bachmeier and RB George Holani back for this game. They were out against BYU and I will be moving forward with the assumption that they are in. If one or both are out, Boise State is in a much tougher spot here. Bachmeier is a sophomore signal-caller that Boise State has a ton of belief in. He struggled a bit in 2019, completing just 62% of his passes with nine touchdowns and six interceptions. He did show promise, however, and he looked a lot better in the one game he was able to play this season. The Broncos have played with three different QB’s in as many games and the sheer consistency of having Bachmeier back will help the offense a ton.

Holani leads the crowded backfield after rushing for 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns a season ago. With Holani hurt, Andrew Van Buren has gotten a lot of work and he’s rushed it 35 times for 136 yards and a few touchdowns. Both backs are solid in the passing game as well, and I expect a 50/50 split when both are healthy. Look for Boise State to run it early as they look to establish these guys against a CSU defense that is weaker against the run.

Wide receiver Khalil Shakir is one of the best pass-catchers in the entire country and he’s found a way to catch 23 balls for 352 yards and four scores even with all this uncertainty at the QB position. John Bates is a massive TE and CT Thomas is a lethal deep threat. If Bachmeier is healthy, this offense has a ton of upside.

Spread Prediction

The Colorado State Rams continue being underpriced and I am all over them in this game. The combination of Dante Wright and Trey McBride is truly one of the most dangerous in college football and they will absolutely give Boise State problems. The Broncos will have success on their side of the ball, but the offense hasn’t had a chance to mesh. Khalil Shakir will do his best to match Wright and McBride by himself, and the showdown will be extremely entertaining. I love Colorado State with the points and am even considering the money line. The Rams have a solid defense and we know they’re going to score. I’ll roll with the points for now, but don’t be afraid to sprinkle some Colorado State money line.

The Pick: Colorado State +13

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

Total Prediction

The over is the only bet I can get behind here. I would much rather bet Colorado State and the points, but these two offenses are finally healthy and neither defense is scary. The Broncos were lifeless a week ago and almost gave up 60 points. The Rams have a better quality defense, but Boise State is more talented on offense and they will have their way once the rhythm is found. Give me the over up to 63.

The Pick: Over 61.5

Final Score Prediction: Boise State 34, Colorado State 31

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

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