Charles Rosa vs Justin Jaynes Prediction
June 24, 2021
Charles Rosa -170 vs Justin Jaynes
Fight is at 145 lbs and is -135 to end inside the distance.
✅ While I suppose this fight feels as close as the betting line suggests, I think this is a stylistic nightmare for Justin Jaynes. Jaynes, after winning his UFC debut via early KO, he’s been finished in three consecutive fights. The early starching that he got away with in his debut, has fallen short the next three times. That will be the case again in this fight, as he will need the early KO against a very durable fighter, or will be owned for the remainder of the fight. Jaynes simply does not bring a high end wrestling nor grappling skill set, and his path to victory lies solely in an early KO.
✅ For Charles Rosa, the game plan will simply be to survive the early danger from Jaynes, and take over afterwards. Rosa is surely not the prettiest striker, but he can be effective with it, and in this match up he will be effective. He is also worlds better on the mat, so if and when Rosa gets the fight to the floor, he will absolutely be in line for a finish. He will have the much better gas tank, and once he has the technique advantage combined with the energy advantage, it will become ugly for Jaynes. Jaynes simply does not have a three round gas tank.
✅ The blueprint on Jaynes is consistent, and he is a fighter we can happily attack with ITD wagers. Once the gas fades and the ability is not there to keep him safe, he gets finished. This will be the case again and we will opt for the aggressive ITD line on Rosa at +180.