Charles Jourdain vs Julian Erosa Prediction

September 2, 2021

5:00 PM ET Sep 4
Charles Jourdain vs Julian Erosa
Jourdain ITD

Charles Jourdain -190 vs Julian Erosa

Fight is at a catchweight of 150 lbs and is -190 to end inside the distance. 

Betting Pick: Jourdain ITD +120

✅ Julian Erosa steps in on short notice to take on Charles Jourdain. Erosa is a fighter that comes in the octagon and go to war, and essentially hopes to find a finish before he is the one finished. Erosa throws looping punches looking for that finish, but his striking defense is absolutely subpar. There’s no head movement and is always open to getting lit up straight down the center line. Erosa relies on landing a lower percentage finishing shit before his opponent does. It’s wildly evident on film but the proof is very much in the results. He is 3-6 in the octagon, and seven of those fights have ended inside the distance. The only decision in the last six years was him being controlled on the mat by a grappler. His other four UFC losses have all come by way of knockout, two of which coming in a minute and a half or less. 

✅ Charles Jourdain is a fighter that is also happy to brawl, but is better at it. He kind of grew into his UFC self with his KO of Marcelo Rojo in his last fight. Even in chaos, Jourdain will be the far more technically sound striker and his tighter strikes will land first and land harder. When he is at range, he also throws the better kicks and may not even have to engage in the inside brawl to initially hurt Erosa. In any event, Jourdain’s much tighter strikes will be a massive problem for Erosa, and are likely to bring the same result as Erosa’s last fight against SeungWoo Choi. Erosa was finished in a minute and a half there. I do not think we will see grappling in this fight, but if we do, I would give the slight edge to Jourdain. 

✅ We are going to see Erosa get knocked out for the fifth time in the octagon. The fact that he is entering this fight on short notice does not bode well for him and he may be even more defensively reckless than normal. With a friendly +120 on Jourdain ITD, that will be our betting play. 

Betting Pick: Jourdain ITD +120
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.