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Auburn Tigers (7) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (4) Betting Picks and Predictions

03 October 2020

NCAAF Picks Austyn Varney
Date:Saturday, October 3rd
Time:7:30 PM ET
Venue:Sanford Stadium
Network:ESPN
Spread:Georgia -7.5
O/U:43.5

The 1-0 Auburn Tigers will go on the road Saturday night to face off with the 1-0 Georgia Bulldogs at 7:30 PM ET in Sanford Stadium. The Bulldogs come in as 7.5-point home favorites over an Auburn squad with championship aspirations. It’ll be interesting to see how this game fares as this is a Georgia team that’s gone through a ton of change. Let’s dive right into how this game will go and who will cover the spread.

When the Auburn Tigers Have The Ball

The Auburn Tigers opened their season up by beating up on the Kentucky Wildcats 29-13. Many believed it was a trap game for the Tigers, so it was encouraging to see them take care of business without much of an issue. Sophomore QB phenom Bo Nix looked solid in the opener, throwing for 233 yards and three scores. He led the team on the ground as well with five carries for 34 yards.

The Tigers stepped up defensively in a big way, forcing three turnovers and consistently putting the offense in a good spot to convert. The Wildcats have a potent and balanced attack, so this was no easy matchup for the D. They’ll have their work cut out for them against Georgia as the Bulldogs have been very unclear as to who will be starting at QB.

When Auburn has the ball, it will be in the hands of Bo Nix. That might sound ridiculous as the ball is in every QB’s hands, but that’s not necessarily true. Over half of the teams in CFB focus on minimizing the mistakes their QB has the ability to make. Not Auburn. They completely trust Nix to run the offense and make whatever changes he feels fit. If you haven’t watched him play, he reminds me of Baker Mayfield with a bit more football IQ.

When Nix drops back, he’ll be looking for Seth Williams. He’s one of the best receivers in the nation and already has a highlight catch in one week. Williams is complemented by Anthony Schwartz and Eli Stove on the outside. Schwartz is one of the fastest players in the country while Stove is more of a prototypical X-WR.

The Tiger didn’t run the ball with much success against Kentucky, but that had more to do with the Wildcats being far better against the run than the pass. It was more about the easiest path to victory. When Auburn does run the ball, it’ll be a mix of Shaun Shivers and D.J. Williams. Both are former four-star prospects and give defenses a whole other issue to worry about. You can bet this Tigers team will run for 100+ yards when we least expect it.

When The Georgia Bulldogs Have The Ball

The Bulldogs took care of business in week one with a comfortable 37-10 win over the Arkansas Razorbacks. QB J.T. Daniels wasn’t cleared to play, so it was D’Wan Mathis that got the start. He was eventually replaced by Stetson Bennett, who played the majority of the game and looked a lot better. He threw for 211 yards and two touchdowns while taking good care of the ball. Bennett also added five rushes for 30 yards, which we typically don’t see out of a UGA QB. Mathis tried to run but didn’t have much success with 10 carries for four yards.

They ran the ball for a combined 121 yards, but they didn’t do it with much success at just 2.9 yards per carry. They’ll surely need to step up against an Auburn team that won’t let them breathe for a second. Zamir White and James Cook share RB responsibilities and both are elite. They just need the room to find a hole.

The QB situation is extremely unclear for week two. J.T. Daniels, the former USC five-star QB, has been cleared to play. With that being said, coach Kirby Smart has already said he will have to prove that he can move around on both knees and that they won’t pigeonhole themself to just one arm. When Daniels, or whoever else drops back, they’ll be looking for George Pickens and Kearis Jackson. Pickens is one of the best WR’s in the nation and Georgia is going to regret not using him more when he’s dominating on Sundays.

It all comes down to whether or not Daniels plays as the offense should see a huge boost when he’s in there. If they don’t, I definitely don’t buy the Bulldogs as a top championship contender. You need a star QB to win in today’s CFB if you’re not Alabama. Against Auburn, they’ll need to slow down Bo Nix and move the ball consistently.

Spread Prediction

The Bulldogs are favored by more than a touchdown and I can’t figure out why for the life of me. Both teams have phenomenal offensive and defensive lines, so I don’t see a huge advantage on either side there. The Tigers have a slightly better defense and they are far more aggressive in the secondary. Offensively, I love the weapons Bo Nix has to work with and the chemistry he has with those weapons. The same obviously can’t be said for Georgia, who’s dealing with a bunch of inexperience at the position.

The Tigers are not only healthier, but an all-around better team. The few fans will minimize home-field advantage and Auburn fans won’t have to travel far. Auburn is going to give Georgia some defensive nightmares as they have four legitimate weapons that are house-call threats on any given play. I love the Tigers to win this game outright and am all over the spread.

The Pick: Auburn +7.5

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

Total Prediction

You’ll rarely find me bet an SEC total and that’s because they are far more accurate than any other conference. Why? Sportsbooks have their pulse on the SEC more than anyone else. There is more news and more stats to be had. With that being said, I certainly lean the over in this one. I think both offenses are solid and neither defense is stalwart. They’re both strong SEC defenses, but I don’t see them as impenetrable by any means. Give me the over, though I prefer letting whatever you’re comfortable with ride on Auburn.

The Pick: Over 43.5

Final Score Prediction: Auburn 27, Georgia 24

Best Sportsbooks For This Pick

New JerseyWilliam Hill square logoBet@William Hill
PennsylvaniaSugarHouse online casino square logoBet@SugarHouse
IndianaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
West VirginiaBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
ColoradoBetMGM white and gold logo on black backgroundBet@BetMGM
IllinoisBetRivers square logoBet@BetRivers

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