ATP Tennis Betting Picks – St. Petersburg Semifinals

October 16, 2020

Four players are left in the ATP 500 event in St. Petersburg in Russia. The remaining field is electric, with several players in and around the top-10 still vying for the title. Two of those four players are Russian Andrey Rublev and Canadian Denis Shapovalov. With these two players having a history against each other, this tantalizing matchup is the focus of today’s tennis betting picks from St. Petersburg.

Andrey Rublev vs. Denis Shapovalov

With Karen Khachanov losing in the quarterfinals to Milos Raonic, Andrey Rublev is the last remaining Russian in this tournament. Rublev has won six of his seven sets played in this event. He defeated Vasek Pospisil in straight sets, Ugo Humbert in three sets, and Cameron Norrie in three sets to get to this stage. Having not played an opponent in the top-35 yet in this tournament, the Russian can expect a more difficult challenge from his semifinal opponent.

If he wants to beat Shapovalov, Rublev will need to be more consistent with his first serve. Rublev has a below average first serve percentage of 59% over the last year. During this tournament, it has been even worse. The Russian has failed to break 57% of first serves in play in each of his first three matches in St. Petersburg. That lack of first serve accuracy will not fly against Shapovalov.

Denis Shapovalov has yet to drop a set in St. Petersburg in this tournament. He has won all three of his matches in straight sets. After victories over Viktor Troicki and Ilya Ivashka, Shapovalov beat Stan Wawrinka in straight sets to reach the semifinals. If he manages to beat Rublev, Shapovalov will buoy his chances at reaching the top-10 in the rankings by the end of the year.

Despite reaching the semifinal round with three straight set matches, Shapovalov has been vulnerable on his serve at times this week. He has faced 12 break points in his last two matches, saving 11 of them. That percentage of break points saved is not sustainable, especially against a player like Rublev. Seven double faults against Wawrinka in the quarterfinals is also concerning from Shapovalov.

These two players have squared off three times in the past. Excluding their meeting at the 2017 NextGen Finals, they have played in two hardcourt matches on tour. Both of those matches were won in straight sets by Shapovalov. Both matches lasted 22 service games, with the Canadian winning 6-3 and 7-6 in both clashes. 

With a partisan crowd certain to back Rublev in this semifinal match, Shapovalov is unlikely to win in straight sets again here. Given that half of the sets between these players have gone to tiebreaks, the over 23 service games is a bet worth making. While this match could very well go three sets, three sets may not be required to go over the total.

Pick: Over 23 service games (-108)

  • New
    nj
  • 1200px
    pa
  • 1200px
    mi
  • 1200px
    wv
  • Indiana
    in
  • 1200px
    co
  • Illinois
    il
  • State
    tn
  • Seal
    va
  • Iowa
    ia
  • Seal
    dc
  • Other

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Well know brand
  • Great reward program

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Easy registration process
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

Bet365 Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • World biggest sportsbook
  • Great live betting
  • Top class user experience

Get $500 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB500

SugarHouse Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Wide Range of Banking Options
  • Generous Bonus
  • Great Loyalty Program

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

SugarHouse Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Generous Bonus
  • Great Loyalty Program
  • Wide Range of Banking Options

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB

Unibet Sportsbook

Rated 4.7 stars out of 5
4.7
  • Great international betting coverage
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Sign-up Bonus

Get $500 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Great Promotions
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Well know brand

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Great promotions
  • Easy registration process
  • Best Multi interface platform

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetRivers Sportsbook

Rated 4 stars out of 5
4.0
  • Both online and land-based sportsbook
  • Top Class Customer Support
  • Great Welcome Bonus

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
250MATCH

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Well know brand
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Strong presence in US
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

William Hill Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Great Promotions
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Well know brand
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

PointsBet Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Outstanding US sports offers
  • Very user-friendly platform
  • One of the biggest sportsbooks in US

Get $2000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB2000

Unibet Sportsbook

Rated 4.7 stars out of 5
4.7
  • Great international betting coverage
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Sign-up Bonus

Get $500 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Well know brand
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Great reward program

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

Sportsbetting.com

Rated 4 stars out of 5
4.0
  • 1X Bonus Playthrough
  • Fast payouts
  • Exciting Daily Promos

Get $150 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

PointsBet Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Outstanding US sports offers
  • One of the biggest sportsbooks in US
  • Very user-friendly platform

Get $2000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB2000

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

PointsBet Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the biggest sportsbooks in US
  • Outstanding US sports offers
  • Very user-friendly platform

Get $2000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB2000

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Great Promotions
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetRivers Sportsbook

Rated 4 stars out of 5
4.0
  • Top Class Customer Support
  • Both online and land-based sportsbook
  • Great Welcome Bonus

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
250MATCH

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Well know brand
  • Great reward program

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

William Hill Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Great Promotions

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Well know brand
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process

Get $100 free

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

Unibet Sportsbook

Rated 4.7 stars out of 5
4.7
  • Sign-up Bonus
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Great international betting coverage

Get $500 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Great Promotions
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Well know brand
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

PointsBet Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Very user-friendly platform
  • One of the biggest sportsbooks in US
  • Outstanding US sports offers

Get $2000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB2000

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Easy registration process
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Easy registration process
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Great Promotions
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

Tennis Betting FAQ

How important is past history between players?

As long as bettors evaluate the context surrounding the results of previous matches, match history between players can be useful to look at. A lopsided match history could indicate a mismatch in the game styles of two players. But bettors should always evaluate these on a case by case basis, as no two players are exactly the same.

Does playing in a player’s home country matter?

The impact of a player being in their home country varies depending on the country and the event. The US Open, for example, gives Americans an edge thanks to a rabid home crowd. Smaller tournaments and tournaments in smaller countries might not be able to produce the same level of support for players. Russian crowds are certainly known for providing ample support for their tennis players.

Who is going to win ATP St. Petersburg?

At this point, it really is anyone’s tournament. Rublev and Shapovalov are both playing excellent tennis. But Borna Coric and Milos Raonic are playing well also. Coric is fresh off a win over Reilly Opelka in the quarters, while Raonic looked very impressive in the quarters against Karen Khachanov.

Jay
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is a sports writer and broadcaster from Albany, NY. He has covered sports betting and the gambling industry since 2013.