ATP Tennis Betting Picks – Paris Masters Day 3

November 2, 2020

The third day of the ATP Rolex Paris Masters means that second round action ramps up into full gear. While top players like Rafael Nadal take the court for the first time in this tournament, two players who played in round one earn our attention. In this round of ATP tennis betting picks from Paris-Bercy, we look at a match featuring one of the players competing on home soil.

Adrian Mannarino vs. Yoshihito Nishioka

Frenchman Adrian Mannarino has had a nice run on the indoor hard courts over the last couple of weeks. The peak of that run came last week in Kazakhstan, where he reached the final of the tournament in Nur-Sultan. Despite losing that final to John Millman, Mannarino has rebounded nicely by winning in round one in Paris. He defeated Dusan Lajovic in the first round on Tuesday.

The concern with Mannarino heading into this match will be his gas tank. He just played a full tournament in Kazakhstan, just after he played a grueling match against Sascha Zverev in Cologne. With his season coming to a close soon, you wonder just how much he has left in the tank as he gets set to face an opponent that is more than capable of making players work. With that said, you have to like the way that Mannarino has been playing in a portion of the season that he has historically performed well in.

Yoshihito Nishioka has played vastly less indoor hard court tennis than Mannarino over the last few weeks. He won a couple of matches in Cologne before falling to Felix Auger-Aliassime. He then took a week off before taking part in this Masters 1000 event. Nishioka drew Pablo Andujar-Alba in the first round, and got the better of him in a three-set affair. 

Nishioka lost the first set of his first round match against Andujar-Alba. In that first set, Nishioka won just two of his nine points on his second serve. That number improved dramatically in the final two sets, providing him a pathway to his eventual comeback. Against Mannarino, Nishioka will not be able to afford such a slow start given that Mannarino has bigger weapons and a better record on this surface.

Mannarino and Nishioka have never played against one another in a competitive match. That lack of experience against one another could lead to a surprising first set one way or the other. With all of the tennis that Mannarino has played recently and the inconsistent play that Nishioka has exhibited over his last couple of matches, it could be difficult for either player to sustain a high enough level to win in straight sets. Because of that, we will look to the over 22.5 service games and expect a match where neither player will have a firm hold on things.

Pick: Over 22.5 service games (+100)

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Tennis Betting FAQ

Does home soil help in tennis?

In some cases, playing on home soil definitely helps players in the sport of tennis. Things are a little different this year, as COVID-19 has made it so that attendance at tennis events is sparse at best. Adrian Mannarino, for example, would have a much bigger edge if there were fans in attendance at this tournament.

Are there any fans at the Paris Masters?

There are no fans in attendance during this tournament, no. This was a tournament that was originally authorized to have about 1,000 fans in attendance each day. But the second wave of the coronavirus made that impossible. Instead, this tournament is being played in empty venues. This creates a quiet atmosphere, which can impact players in different ways.

Which players benefit from no crowds at tennis tournaments?

Players who are more internally motivated stand to benefit from the lack of tennis crowds. Players like Kevin Anderson, who talk themselves up throughout matches, are less dependent on crowds than players who need cheering to get them excited. This adds yet another layer to handicapping professional tennis matches.

Jay
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is a sports writer and broadcaster from Albany, NY. He has covered sports betting and the gambling industry since 2013.