Antonina Shevchenko vs Andrea Lee Predictions

May 13, 2021

Antonina Shevchenko -130 vs Andrea Lee

Betting Pick: Lee +110

Fight is at 125 lbs and is +280 to end inside the distance. 

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UFC 262 Predictions

Before diving into this UFC 262 fight, make a note that it was mislined. After being a -190 or more favorite leading up this week, Antonina Shevchenko has been bet down to -130. This was an inevitable and necessary correction. 

✅ I mentioned in the intro that Andrea Lee has had some bad luck in decisions. I also mentioned the judging problems that have taken place in Texas. It turns out, Lee was the victim of one of those robberies. Lee is a striker and well rounded. She is willing to mix it up and she has the better wrestling game than that of Shevchenko. While both fighters are quality strikers, there are differences. Lee is more aggressive and pressures and forces the action more than Shevchenko does. This could cause problems in and of itself, but it also may set up clinch work and takedowns for Lee. As long as Lee does not come in with a passive game plan, the stylistic matchup is a very good one for her. 

✅ On the other side, Shevchenko gets a step back up in competition after an impressive showing against Ariane Lipski. She used offensive wrestling and grappling in that fight after being dominated on the mat and losing two of her previous three fights in that fashion. I think the opening line was reactionary to the ground win from Shevchenko, but certainly did not take into account the quality of opponent. The fight with Lee is a clear step back up and I don’t think she will have that same avenue of advantage in this matchup. In fact, it may be an area of disadvantage used against her once again. If Shevchenko is unable to secure her own takedowns, she will likely have to be on her bike in the standup and be an absolute sniper from the outside. Lee will pressure and she will be landed the more significant strikes otherwise. 

✅ This is the third of three fights on the card that features a mislined underdog that I believe should dbe favored. It is another great value opportunity. Even after the line movement, there is plenty of value on Lee, and she will be our play. 

Betting Pick: Lee +110

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TJ
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.