Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime Prediction: US Open Betting Picks

September 7, 2021

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12:00 AM ET Sep 8
Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Over 39.5 games
+105
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Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime is one of two men’s quarterfinal matches set to take place on the second Tuesday of the 2021 US Open. With a combined age of 39, both of these players have bright futures ahead of them and will look to make those futures into the present, with a win taking them to their first major semifinal. In today’s tennis picks, we look at Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime as there is some value in the betting markets here.

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Betting Pick

Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime Pick: Over 39.5 (+105)

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Carlos Alcaraz has become one of the major stories of the 2021 US Open, as the 18 year old has looked like a seasoned veteran in his run to the quarterfinals. In the two rounds leading up to the quarters, the Spaniard has beaten Stefanos Tsitsipas and Peter Gojowczyk in five sets each. In both matches, Alcaraz has rebounded from momentum shifts that haven’t gone in his favor, absorbing everything his opponents have thrown at him to win in thrilling fashion.

For Alcaraz, there hasn’t been a huge dropoff between his first and second serve success, which has been vital to his staying in this tournament. Alcaraz has won 60% of his first serve points over the last two matches, and has taken just under 57% of his second serve points. While you’d like to see him develop a more dangerous game when he gets his first serve in play, his ability to come away with points when he doesn’t is very impressive.

Felix Auger-Aliassime had a rocky start to his US Open campaign as he had to grind out a four-set win over Evgeny Donskoy that featured multiple tiebreaks. But FAA has been impressive since then, with his last two victories coming against Roberto Bautista-Agut and a player in Frances Tiafoe who enjoyed a crowd that was very much backing him throughout. Here, the Canadian will look to pick up a third straight win over an elite opponent to reach the semis.

Auger-Aliassime has done a nice job of using his serve to get through tense moments, which he will likely need to do again against a player in Alcaraz who can put pressure on opposing service games. The Canadian has won 82% and 83% of his first serve points in the Bautista-Agut and Tiafoe matches. And with 51 aces in those two matches, Auger-Aliassime has been great at serving his way through pressure situations.

Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime has never taken place prior to this matchup, as both players are so young that they haven’t had enough time to meet on tour yet. Neither player has won at this level of a Grand Slam event before, though Auger-Aliassime has played in two major quarterfinals previously. In a match where maintaining composure down the stretch could decide things, it will be interesting to see if Auger-Aliassime’s relative experience advantage matters.

Both Carlos Alcaraz and Felix Auger-Aliassime have been involved in nothing but back-and-forth matches lately. That should continue here, as Alcaraz and Auger-Aliassime will trade blows in a very competitive match. The over 39.5 games line should come home, as this match could very well go to a fifth set.

Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime Pick: Over 39.5 (+105)

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US Open Betting FAQ

Who will win Van de Zandschulp vs Medvedev?

Daniil Medvedev is going to win against Botic Van de Zandschulp to secure his passage to the semifinals of the US Open. Medvedev comes in at odds so short that it wouldn’t make much sense to bet on him to win the match. And with Medvedev yet to drop a set in this tournament, this contest might not be all that competitive.

Is Alcaraz going to be the next Nadal?

There have been a lot of comparisons between Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz over the last few months as Alcaraz has made his ascent up the rankings. But Alcaraz will need to develop more consistent weapons while on his serve if he wants to be worthy of that distinction. It is possible that happens, but there is no use in making such projections so early on.

Which of these players will win more majors?

It is hard to tell whether Carlos Alcaraz or Felix Auger-Aliassime will win more majors in their career. FAA has shown some serious issues with closing out tournaments in finals, which will have an impact on his ability to win majors should he reach major finals. But Alcaraz is still young, and will need to keep improving to win any majors on his end also.

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Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is a sports writer and broadcaster from Albany, NY. He has covered sports betting and the gambling industry since 2013.