2020 Election Betting Odds – What Are Oddsmakers Saying?
03 November 2020
With the 2020 Presidential Election set to take place throughout today, and the outcome to be determined at some point over the next one day and beyond, the odds to win the election are tightening up. Will Donald Trump secure a second term as President of the United States? Or will Joe Biden claim the highest office in the land? More importantly, what are oddsmakers around the world saying about the potential outcome?
Odds shift toward Trump
Over the final days leading up to the election, global oddsmakers have moved the 2020 election betting odds in Donald Trump’s direction. Trump was an underdog of +175 or so throughout the last week. That number has come down closer to +150 in the final day before ballots are cast throughout the United States. This mirrors the line movement that took place just before the 2016 election, in which Trump defeated Hillary Clinton.
Of course, it should be noted that this has more to do with the distribution of money on the candidates rather than the actual chances of winning the election. Reports indicate that as much as 70% of wagers are being placed on Trump to win the election at his plus price. Given that bettors tend to have more disposable income than other groups of Americans, it makes sense that they may support the current President at a higher rate than those who lack discretionary income.
The odds to win the election leading up to the event are typically better for predicting the outcome than standard polling is. But the late shift in odds is a more of a response to the liability at each bookmaker at this point in the process. When bookmakers set their original line, it was strongly in the favor of the challenger to the current President, which is interesting to keep in mind as Americans finish heading to the polls today.
Betting on the US Election
In the United States, there aren’t currently states that are allowing their legal sportsbooks to take action on the 2020 Election. While there is no impact on betting with regard to the integrity of elections, many states are hesitant to entertain the argument that election betting should be allowed. This could change in the future, as some states are pushing for the expansion of sports gambling to include specialty events like elections.
DraftKings $100,000 Prize Pool
For now, there is an opportunity for those who want to get involved with election night for the chance to win some money, though. DraftKings Sportsbook is holding a pool that is free to enter for the night. Players can enter their picks for a number of questions, such as who is going to win the election and who will win key battleground states throughout the night. There is a $100,000 prize pool up for grabs for their contest.
Go to DraftKings
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Interestingly, DraftKings released some information on the picks that had been made in the pool through the weekend. The majority of picks in all but one state in the DraftKings pool were for Trump to win the election. Whether that is a sign of things to come remains to be seen. The only guarantee on election night in America is that it is going to be an interesting one to say the least.
Election Betting FAQ
It is still unclear as to who is going to win the election. Both candidates have their stronghold of states that will go clearly in their direction. The question now is whether they can earn enough votes in swing states, that can go either way, to earn the electoral votes necessary to be President for the next four years.
States like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Wisconsin are typically labeled as swing states. These states don’t always vote for one party over the other. Their outcome usually depends on voter turnout and the merits of the candidates more than what side of the aisle those candidates come from.
There is a heated debate on whether the United States should still use the electoral college. It is said to give people in less populous states a say in elections, though some argue that their say is disproportionate and would prefer a popular vote system. Either way, that debate isn’t getting solved before the 2020 Election and the electoral college system is here to stay for now.